The Aberdeen House Prices & Rents thread

wotsthat

sell now, sell everything!

it's started!

most excellent!

Crashy_Time

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

:rotfl::rotfl::rotfl:

That's the 'print' button.

Print more money you mean, or just MEW it? :rotfl:

Crashy_Time

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Here's hoping we see those sizes of falls, unlikely as it may be.... :beer:

But on a slight note of caution, you've been saying things like that every single year for 8 years now.

"Prices tanking', 'Epicentre of the crash', 'It's all over', etc etc etc.

People looking at average priced houses that listened to you back then in Aberdeen would be nursing not much shy of a £100,000 loss versus renting the same house since.

How much do you think you will lose on your 2007 house Hamish? Aberdeen wasn`t the "Epicentre" of a crash 8 years ago, but it is now. If you don`t see the houses in the links for what they are, Ex-council in nothing special areas that won`t be very valuable after an oil rout, then you are much more deluded than I thought.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Crashy_Time wrote: »

How much do you think you will lose on your 2007 house Hamish? Aberdeen wasn`t the "Epicentre" of a crash 8 years ago, but it is now. If you don`t see the houses in the links for what they are, Ex-council in nothing special areas that won`t be very valuable after an oil rout, then you are much more deluded than I thought.

How much will I lose? In all probability nothing.

Which is not to say prices may or may not crash. They've certainly fallen a bit since last year. Hopefully they'll fall a lot more as that makes the next house I want to buy cheaper.

But for me to lose money on the last purchase I'd have to sell for a price so low that renting an equivalent house since 2007 would have been the cheaper option.

As my cost of ownership has been so very low and the cost of renting since has been so very high that would mean prices have to fall really, really significantly - well in excess of 50% - just to cover the difference since then.

chucknorris

Crashy_Time wrote: »

How much do you think you will lose on your 2007 house Hamish?

Where did you hear that Hamish was selling his house? Weren't you telling me not so long ago that my property equity isn't profit until a house has been sold. I don't actually agree with that (due to the extent of the equity), but at least I know where you are coming from. But does that not also work the other way around, in that negative equity isn't actually a loss until the house has been sold?

baz8790

I posted the links to show that within the space of 3 weeks the same types of houses (ex council) when being surveyed the surveyors are increasing the valuation prices.

The "price over" price is the same price as the valuation for all 3

This type of houses are going under offer within weeks, the first link I posted went to a closing date within 2 weeks of being advertised.

The oil price crash has been ongoing for over a year now so why has this house price crash not happend yet?

Or are people simply downsizing and the cheaper properties are being snapped up?

westernpromise

The oil price crash is over and the correction is now underway. Brent's back at $42 which is 50% from Christmas.

The cure for low oil prices is low oil prices.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

baz8790 wrote: »

I posted the links to show that within the space of 3 weeks the same types of houses (ex council) when being surveyed the surveyors are increasing the valuation prices.

I don't think that's correct.

If you track actual sold prices in those areas I'm pretty sure prices are not rising over the last 12 months - and survey prices should follow that.

It is not uncommon for there to be tens of thousands difference between 2 bed terraced houses in ex council areas - just based on condition, the actual street differences, ownership mix/crime rates in the very local area, etc.

If you really want to see if surveyors are raising prices then try and find 3 valuations for 3 almost identical houses (and I do mean almost identical, ie, only different colour paint inside, not different condition or external surfaces) that have been surveyed recently and just a few months apart on the same street or at least the same block.

This type of houses are going under offer within weeks, the first link I posted went to a closing date within 2 weeks of being advertised.

Indeed.

Sales volumes are holding up reasonably well at the bottom end and mid-market - only a minority of people in Aberdeen work in oil - and despite what you may hear from a few bitter Oilies over on HPC this town really doesn't revolve around them as much as they think...

The oil price crash has been ongoing for over a year now so why has this house price crash not happend yet?

Or are people simply downsizing and the cheaper properties are being snapped up?

What are you expecting to happen?

Even in 2008/9 - with crashing oil prices AND mass layoffs AND a global credit crisis AND a national recession - Aberdeen prices only fell around 20% on average - and the better houses in each category held their value much better than the worst. Those who got a deal generally bought a dump.

This time around we have no national recession, no mass layoffs outside a few thousand Oilies, and no global credit crisis....

I would expect prices to dip a bit - but a proper crash looks unlikely.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Crashy_Time wrote: »

Print more money you mean, or just MEW it? :rotfl:

Click it and find out....:)

Crashy_Time

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

How much will I lose? In all probability nothing.

Which is not to say prices may or may not crash. They've certainly fallen a bit since last year. Hopefully they'll fall a lot more as that makes the next house I want to buy cheaper.

But for me to lose money on the last purchase I'd have to sell for a price so low that renting an equivalent house since 2007 would have been the cheaper option.

As my cost of ownership has been so very low and the cost of renting since has been so very high that would mean prices have to fall really, really significantly - well in excess of 50% - just to cover the difference since then.

50% crash easily on the cards in Aberdeen IMO, but yes you were very very lucky to benefit from the biggest emergency rescue of the UK economy ever, while living in one of the most affluent areas as well, and no doubt you were banking on high oil/high employment/low rates for years to come. Not to be though, but you had a good run Hamish, I don`t grudge you that.