Sterling v. Euro, after UK catastrophe

zaphod

Hi. We are both retired & travel around Europe in a motorhome. We have a small house in Portugal as a base if required, but no UK property anymore.
We are comfortable because we live a simple (& cheap!) life which is not allowed in the UK, but we are far from rich & thus I think vulnerable.
We have a few shares, but mostly we have UK savings.
Hence my question.
If, for example, London should be hit by a tidal surge & was half underwater what effect do you think this would have on Sterlings value relatively?
I am trying to figure what other Uk event could seriously destabilise the place financially.
Yes, there is a degree of paranoia in this, but I do have my reasons for thinking something is going to happen within the next ten years.
Of course I may keel over next year & wonder why I was paranoid in a post criminal-Blair world:D

wombat42_2

zaphod wrote: »

Hi. We are both retired & travel around Europe in a motorhome. We have a small house in Portugal as a base if required, but no UK property anymore.
We are comfortable because we live a simple (& cheap!) life which is not allowed in the UK, but we are far from rich & thus I think vulnerable.
We have a few shares, but mostly we have UK savings.
Hence my question.
If, for example, London should be hit by a tidal surge & was half underwater what effect do you think this would have on Sterlings value relatively?
I am trying to figure what other Uk event could seriously destabilise the place financially.
Yes, there is a degree of paranoia in this, but I do have my reasons for thinking something is going to happen within the next ten years.
Of course I may keel over next year & wonder why I was paranoid in a post criminal-Blair world:D

The government are seriously considering a "super" Thames barrier. Anyway apparently London being flooded is 1 of about 10 possible major natural disasters that could happen to the UK. The possibilities are all quite low (about 1% chance) though. But I would imagine that most other countries in the world have similar risks.

missile

If you spend most of your time in Europe you might be better to keep more of your savings in euros. Interest rates are generally a little lower but you may feel more comfortable, being sheltered from the effect of currency fluctuations.

zaphod

Yes indeed wombat, not that it will work ultimately, even if the rest of the nation pay for it (which they will)...& I doubt it will be built in time..........but London flooding was just an example, no more..... tis a place of exaggerated importance in the great scheme of things, one might say;)

I am hoping for a broader view if possible please?

I agree missile, but the savings rates in Portugal at least are a joke, hence staying in UK savings for the moment.

CLAPTON

In the greater scheme of things (and written only partly in jest)

in about 4000million years the sun will start burning helium and become a red giant and the earth will be totally vapourised.

any time within the next 100 million years its likely that an asteroid will hit the earth and wipe out most life as we know it

within the next million or so years its highly like that the earth's magnetic field will reverse during which we will all be swamped by the solar wind

within the next 20,000 years if global warming doesn't save us then the whole of UK and N Europe will be covered in an icesheet during the next ice age so you'll probably be OK in Portugal.

A million UK people died in the 1st world war but life and the economy in the UK didn't collapse

Similarly the blitz was survived.

Nuclear annihilation didn't occur in the 50/60/70/80s as widely predicted.

Terrorism may cause great damage to the UK

Peak oil might occur sooner than we think and we will have a gobal economic meltdown

Global warming may make the Mediterranean countries deserts and they may become uninhabitable

Global warming and population growth may well cause that nuclear war we didn't have in the 20th century.

Growth of India and China might cause economic collapse in the west.

London being flooded would cause a huge boost to the rest of the Uk as jobs moved out of London , new building of all sorts were required with subsequent increase in house prices etc.

Just one thing I dont understand is, if you think there will be a massive meltdown/catastrophe in the UK why are you worrying about trivial things like interest rates in Portugal?

zaphod

CLAPTON wrote: »

In the greater scheme of things (and written only partly in jest)


Just one thing I dont understand is, if you think there will be a massive meltdown/catastrophe in the UK why are you worrying about trivial things like interest rates in Portugal?

Simple Clapton, so we are not inconvenienced by a lack of dosh before the 'bigger' event happens:D
I find a lack of this man created wealth divider called 'money' very tedious.
I didn't (as far as I'm aware!) create this spiritually bankrupt lottery of a system, so I do my bet to avoid it's amorality & consequences if posssible........... & I'm sure I'm not alone.
It's the main reason I left the UK; the list that I did not wish to fund (eg Scotland, criminal 'new' Labour, spin; need I go on?), grew too large for my blood pressure, so I voted with my feet...........yeah ok, 'ran away'.

BTW:- Great post, thxs.....though I thought the asteroid (comet?) was due in 2034?

Ian_W

zaphod wrote: »

.....though I thought the asteroid (comet?) was due in 2034?

That's asteroids for yer mate, never on time :mad:

and just like the bloomin buses, likely to be 2 along together

to wipe out mankind twice! :eek:

ManAtHome

zaphod wrote: »

though I thought the asteroid (comet?) was due in 2034?

Isn't that Y2.034k when all the unix dates overflow..? (if it's both, could be a tricky year).

Two9A

The Overflow will happen in January 2038.

Although if all the world's electronics are wiped clean in 2034, that might be rendered moot

As to the OPs point, if the City were to be overwhelmed by flood, I'd assume the effect on sterling would be significant. If I recall, the dollar dropped a good few percent in the loss of the WTC, and the flooding of a financial city centre would be trouble on a much larger scale.

EdInvestor

The OP has two short-term problems:

1.The instability of sterling/Euro exchange rates
2.The instability of UK cash interest rates

and one long term problem:

3.The effect of inflation on his capital and income


He could reduce his risks by

a)Switching some of his cash savings into the Euro
b)Switching some more of his cash savings into a portfolio of high yielding UK blue chip shares. These will pay a (tax free) dividend of 5% and should deliver a rising income and rising capital value long term.


However he might need to check the tax situation on investments income in Portugal first.

Is the OP receiving UK pensions yet?

mystic_trev

zaphod wrote: »

Hi. We are both retired & travel around Europe in a motorhome. We have a small house in Portugal as a base

To be quite honest (and a frequent traveler to Portugal) I'd be a lot more worried about the long overdue Earthquake!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1755_Lisbon_earthquake