House Prices to Jump 50%....

ukcarper

Graham_Devon wrote: »

I think you are over egging the amount he can do in one day.

To plan every day so that he can move from house to house at such a quick pace and have each and every customer duly awaiting his arrival without a hitch and to have each and every boiler service go swimmingly would be uncanny to say the least.

If boiler servicing is that lucrative no one would work for the likes of British Gas. That's not the case. If it was as lucrative as you make out, LOADS would be trying to get into it flooding the market - that's not the case.

My brother in law does this (amongst other stuff). So I do have an idea, and he's certainly no where near the level you are assuming people are at. And he certainly doesn't do that many boilers per day. Sometimes, he even gets stuck in a traffic jam so has to cancel a service, or finds the homeowner isn't there. Uncanny eh? Sometimes he finds a problem with a boiler and it doesn't go swimmingly so he loses out. He get's called out to boiler repairs, get's half way there and then cancelled. Theres no pay for that.

Theres a reason so many work for British Gas - they get paid regardless of if they are in a traffic jam, regardless of whether the service takes longer and regardless of whether the homeowner is in for the appointment.

I doubt his expenses are £15k a year so he would need £67k a year to be earning £52k that's £335 a day for 46 weeks.
A lot of people prefer the security of being employed I was one of them.

cells

MatthewAinsworth wrote: »

What I don't understand is how they can keep rising at a higher rate than wages, surely affordability will choke it back?

the least affordable places are in inner London where prices are set by renters bidding higher and higher via their landlords

The ways they will bid more in the next 10 years are by...

Higher wages lets say ~50%
Higher average Occupancy lets say ~15%

Those two alone can drive rents up by ~70-75% over the next 10 years.

Of course interest rates play a big part too. Assuming they stay about the 4% mark then + 75% is achievable without renters individually paying any more. If renters are willing to pay more than they are now in real terms to be in inner London then more than +75% is possible

cells

sebadee wrote: »

As a homeowner, this is insane and it exposes our economy to far too much risk. It also takes a huge dump on the next generation trying to get ahead.

I really feel do worry for my kids and their future in this country.

more than half the country is cheap. prices in the north east, north west, E-midlands, W-Midlands, yorks&humber are virtually the same or lower than they were 10 years ago and down notably in real terms

not everyone can live in inner London where the crazy £1m terrace homes (within a 2 min walk of huge council estates) are.

Waldorf_Statler

prices can continue to rise above wage inflation because there is some "slack" on the demand side. not everyone has turned the crank all the way to maximum leverage. anyone riding the crest of house price growth over the past 20 years will have a pile of equity. some of those people will have little or no mortgage. if those people continue to increase the leverage on their finances then prices can rise. of course, there is a void at the bottom but somehow or other that always seems to be filled.

lessonlearned

ukcarper wrote: »

I doubt his expenses are £15k a year so he would need £67k a year to be earning £52k that's £335 a day for 46 weeks.
A lot of people prefer the security of being employed I was one of them.

The going rate for a plumber or electrician is nearer £200 a day.

And 8 full proper strip down services a day is impossible, which is what you would need to make £500 a day.

The full monty takes around 1 HR, assuming no major faults are found or repairs needed. Its not the same as a quick 15-30 minute safety check, which is what you normally get with British Gas.

Expenses could easily top £15k

No sick pay, no holiday pay, no pension provision. Vans, tools, work gear. Books and paperwork. Time lost in traffic, cancelled jobs. Time spent pricing jobs you're not guaranteed to get. Regular enforced courses to be paid for in order to update skills for gas safety licence, no money earned whilst attending study course.

Take all that into account and those gross earnings aren't as over generous as it might appear at first glance.

And that's without taking into account advertising, marketing etc.

Luckily my plumber doesn't need to advertise - he has more work than he can handle.

lessonlearned

cells wrote: »

more than half the country is cheap. prices in the north east, north west, E-midlands, W-Midlands, yorks&humber are virtually the same or lower than they were 10 years ago and down notably in real terms

not everyone can live in inner London where the crazy £1m terrace homes (within a 2 min walk of huge council estates) are.

Yes - a lot of people still seem to think that civilisation ends at Watford Gap. :rotfl:

London and the south east property market bears little relation to the rest of the U.K. There are a few hot spots of course but on the whole the housing market is still steady rather than enduring galloping inflation.

The feeding frenzy is not nationwide.

ukcarper

lessonlearned wrote: »

The going rate for a plumber or electrician is nearer £200 a day.

And 8 full proper strip down services a day is impossible, which is what you would need to make £500 a day.

The full monty takes around 1 HR, assuming no major faults are found or repairs needed. Its not the same as a quick 15-30 minute safety check, which is what you normally get with British Gas.

Expenses could easily top £15k

No sick pay, no holiday pay, no pension provision. Vans, tools, work gear. Books and paperwork. Time lost in traffic, cancelled jobs. Time spent pricing jobs you're not guaranteed to get. Regular enforced courses to be paid for in order to update skills for gas safety licence, no money earned whilst attending study course.

Take all that into account and those gross earnings aren't as over generous as it might appear at first glance.

And that's without taking into account advertising, marketing etc.

Luckily my plumber doesn't need to advertise - he has more work than he can handle.

There is a difference between sub contracting a plumber and a self employed plumber working for himself. A boiler service where I am is £65 + vat and takes less than half an hour. Took my plumber and his mate 2 days to replace boiler and convert from gravity to pumped hot water system cost £3000 parts no more than £1000.

I based my £52k a year on £334 a day for 46 weeks.

lessonlearned

Yes I paid about £3k recently.

Huge boiler though, large rambling Grade II listed building, very poorly insulated and no real chance of improving heat loss. We up scaled the boiler because the old one was totally inadequate.

Nice and cosy now and heating costs have been slashed so worth every penny.

He also refitted a bathroom for me. 10 days work him and his mate, dead posh sanitary ware, roll top bath, separate shower cabinet with top of the range shower head, underfloor central heating, designer towel rail, all tiling to floor and walls, electrics and plastering (subcontracted out to his colleagues) £6700 the lot, so no I wasn't paying him or any of the subbies £500 a day.

But yes you are right, a subbie generally earns less than someone who Is totally SE.

My guy is self employed But there is No way he could charge £500 a day on a large job such as a kitchen or bathroom or central heating system. The labour alone on that bathroom would have been £5k even if he had split it with his mate. He would have priced himself out of the market. I doubt very much if he could manage 7 or 8 services in a day to make that magic £500.

£65 plus vat for a service sounds very cheap but if it only took half an hour then it's probably about right.

I guess a lot depends on where you live. I would imagine London rates are higher than where I am. Plus my guy has done all my work for over 10 years now and I do give him a fair amount of work.

I would have thought though, that even London prices wouldn't stretch to labour costs of £500 a day per person. They would be pricing themselves out of a job.

But we digress. The thread was about house price increases.

I had a bit of a trawl through Rightmove last night for my area. A lot of the properties have not yet reached 2007 pre crash prices yet so I think the market can best be described as "patchy" - some hot spots but some areas still languishing.

ukcarper

lessonlearned wrote: »

Yes I paid about £3k recently.

Huge boiler though, large rambling Grade II listed building, very poorly insulated and no real chance of improving heat loss. We up scaled the boiler because the old one was totally inadequate.

Nice and cosy now and heating costs have been slashed so worth every penny.

He also refitted a bathroom for me. 10 days work him and his mate, dead posh sanitary ware, roll top bath, separate shower cabinet with top of the range shower head, underfloor central heating, designer towel rail, all tiling to floor and walls, electrics and plastering (subcontracted out to his colleagues) £6700 the lot, so no I wasn't paying him or any of the subbies £500 a day.

But yes you are right, a subbie generally earns less than someone who Is totally SE.

My guy is self employed But there is No way he could charge £500 a day on a large job such as a kitchen or bathroom or central heating system. The labour alone on that bathroom would have been £5k even if he had split it with his mate. He would have priced himself out of the market. I doubt very much if he could manage 7 or 8 services in a day to make that magic £500.

£65 plus vat for a service sounds very cheap but if it only took half an hour then it's probably about right.

I guess a lot depends on where you live. I would imagine London rates are higher than where I am. Plus my guy has done all my work for over 10 years now and I do give him a fair amount of work.

I would have thought though, that even London prices wouldn't stretch to labour costs of £500 a day per person. They would be pricing themselves out of a job.

But we digress. The thread was about house price increases.

I had a bit of a trawl through Rightmove last night for my area. A lot of the properties have not yet reached 2007 pre crash prices yet so I think the market can best be described as "patchy" - some hot spots but some areas still languishing.

I take you are not in the South East where prices are higher. I don't think all plumbers can earn £500 every day just that a good plumber running his own business can make £1000 a week after expenses.

There is not that much to servicing a condensing boiler and my plumber installed boiler and it is the make he normally installs so he is very familiar with it so doesn't waste anytime.

As you say we digress, prices seem to have gone mad where I am and are now more than 30% above 2007 prices. But as you say in many parts of country prices are not back to 2007 which makes me the the so call housing crises is really only a London and South East crises.

lessonlearned

I'll probably get shot down in flames for saying this but here goes.

I honestly don't think £1k a week - and as I said - no holiday pay, no sickness pay, no help with pension - could be called a fortune, especially for the south east.

It's hard, dirty, backbreaking work. I can't say I would fancy being a plumber. £1K a week might sound like riches beyond the dreams of avarice but there's a lot of costs to come out of that first.

My husband was SE - not a plumber.

His fee was generally around £300 to £350 a day. (He was worth it though, he either made or saved a lot of money for his cLients). I did his accounts for him, I can tell you costs soon rack up. For example my husband worked away from home so when you factor in hotels and travel costs you can see that gross figures can be very misleading.

Anyway property values........

That grade II listed house I told you about.......

It's my sons, it's huge and gorgeous, built in 1758, one of the oldest private residences in our city. It needed work, he paid £160k for it two years ago.

He is lovingly bringing it back to life and it's looking pretty good. He's had letters pushed through the door from people wanting to buy it now the work is nearly complete. He says it's not for sale, too much sweat has gone into it:rotfl:

The same house in a good part of London or the south east would cost millions and would have people queuing up for it.

My son is on good money for his age, an engineer with a PhD in maths, but a property like that in the south east would just be a pipe dream for him. He probably wouldn't even manage a grotty bedsit let alone a fine detached four bedroomed Georgian house.

I think the market is very imbalanced - still relatively affordable in great swathes of the UK but seriously out of kilter in some areas.

I used to live in the Cotswolds, another hotspot. I nearly fainted when I saw my old house for sale recently. Would you believe a cool half million for what is essentially a three bed semi. Admittedly the vendors have built a nice fancy pants extension but even so........:rotfl: