House Prices to Jump 50%....

martinsurrey

chucknorris wrote: »

I just can't see it happening, but if it does I'll be more than happy about it. All I see going forward for the next few years is stagnation.

The article is about nominal house prices, and are forecast to increase at an average of 4% pa.

With wage inflation of around 3% which we are almost at (2.7% in Oct), that is almost stagnant in real terms for the next 10 years, and given the expected population growth over the next decade, these are pretty modest gains in real terms.

ukcarper

chucknorris wrote: »

I just can't see it happening, but if it does I'll be more than happy about it. All I see going forward for the next few years is stagnation.

I can't see it happening also, but prices where I am have increased by 30% over the last couple of years and I didn't see that coming.

It wouldn't make me happy to see prices increasing by more than earnings in fact I would welcome some stagnation.

chucknorris

martinsurrey wrote: »

The article is about nominal house prices, and are forecast to increase at an average of 4% pa.

With wage inflation of around 3% which we are almost at (2.7% in Oct), that is almost stagnant in real terms for the next 10 years, and given the expected population growth over the next decade, these are pretty modest gains in real terms.

If they had not recently surged, I would tend to agree with you, but London prices have rocketed upwards since 2010.

chucknorris

ukcarper wrote: »

I can't see it happening also, but prices where I am have increased by 30% over the last couple of years and I didn't see that coming.

It wouldn't make me happy to see prices increasing by more than earnings in fact I would welcome some stagnation.

No I didn't see it happening either, so there is some hope. But I would rather expect less, then be pleasantly surprised later, rather than expect more, but end up disappointed.

System

Ukcarper -

.If supply is not increasing as fast as demand it means less people can buy and they will be the people earning more.

I don't get the earning more bit, if less people can borrow the required, how can it grow?

Graham_Devon

martinsurrey wrote: »

The article is about nominal house prices, and are forecast to increase at an average of 4% pa.

With wage inflation of around 3% which we are almost at (2.7% in Oct), that is almost stagnant in real terms for the next 10 years, and given the expected population growth over the next decade, these are pretty modest gains in real terms.

Wages are currently growing at 2% as growth is slipping back.

The other issue here is that the monetry difference between wages rising 50% and house prices rising 50%.

The national average wage is around £28k. A 50% rise in this give s an extra 14k.

An extra 14k isn't going to alleviate a rise in house prices of £156,000.

ukcarper

MatthewAinsworth wrote: »

Ukcarper -

I don't get the earning more bit, if less people can borrow the required, how can it grow?[/QUOTE

Put simply if 100 people are chasing 80 houses the 80 highest earners can buy, if there are now 100 people chasing 70 houses only 70 highest earners can buy. Meaning price is determined by 70th highest earner instead of 80th highest earner.

DigForVictory

Whilst personally I am a big fan of a University education, right now I think I'll urge at least one son to learn building. Or plumbing, or domestic wiring. Then I'll do the books for a building cooperative of him & mates as they build their own.

mayonnaise

Carl31 wrote: »

Hmm, research by letting agents at a time their customer Base is at risk, promoting rental investment

No, not research by letting agents.
Research by the Centre for Economics and Business Research.

You're welcome.

chucknorris

DigForVictory wrote: »

Whilst personally I am a big fan of a University education, right now I think I'll urge at least one son to learn building. Or plumbing, or domestic wiring. Then I'll do the books for a building cooperative of him & mates as they build their own.

Eventually owning your own plumbing or electrical business would be far more profitable and rewarding, than the career of an average graduate, so I wouldn't put you off giving that advice.