"Thousands" of London flats to come to the market

westernpromise

The other thing to watch about dodgy stats like the canonical average earner being on only £26k is that there is more to affordability and more than one average to consider.

Thus the average occupancy is 1.5 earners, the average FTB buys with someone else, and the average house has 45% equity in it. When you factor that stuff in the average house looks pretty affordable to the modern demographic of house buyers. If you think it's still 1970 and that you should be able to buy a house for 3x one salary, well, you're going to be disappointed.

Jason74

Crashy_Time wrote: »

Wishful thinking, I don`t think the property market really does stagnation, if it slows negative sentiment will see it slowing further and crashing. The way to lock in gains was to sell up before all this kicked off IMO.

And remind me again, what has your record of predicting the London market been like over the past few years ?

buglawton

Crashy_Time wrote: »

You could jump up and down on your property shouting "HPI Forever!" but it won`t stop the price dropping when a neighbour sells for less, there will always be someone who needs to sell.

So few of my neighbours houses ever come onto the market I wouldn't know how to tell. When I bought there were only 2 semis in my range on the market within miles of here. I put an offer in the day after I viewed then had to push the EA to get on with it. All in all the concept of falling house prices has never crossed my mind. As for HPI - not interested either. And stamp duty keeps me glued to the spot anyway.

Crashy_Time

cells wrote: »

What crashy and the other crash cheer leaders don't understand is that we have a finite number of properties to be allocated amongst the population
The best properties in the best locations will always go to the wealthiest

It doesn't matter what the price level is. A single crash cheerleader man on £26k a year isn't going to get what they would deem a nice house. Because there will always be much more capable bidders than a single man on £26k. For instance a couple on £26k. Or a person on a modest wage but with a huge inheritance. Or someone on more money than that. What they think of as the average buyer someone on £26k a year which is below the average full time wage will never get the above average property.


Its also worthwhile bearing in mind that in 2007-2009 while the whole world was going through a recession and a financial and banking crysis prices crashed a whole 10%. I don't expect the brexit recession to be global nor as bad as 2007-2009 so why would someone expect a crash 5x as big as 2007-2009?

That "crash" was the one where central banks around the world pulled out all the stops not to have a crash, the next crash is the one when they can`t stop it any more. You really do waffle away don`t you, all rather than admit is was a global credit bubble. Just take a deep breath and say it - GLOBAL CREDIT BUBBLE - you will feel much less confused, honestly....:rotfl:

Crashy_Time

westernpromise wrote: »

The other thing to watch about dodgy stats like the canonical average earner being on only £26k is that there is more to affordability and more than one average to consider.

Thus the average occupancy is 1.5 earners, the average FTB buys with someone else, and the average house has 45% equity in it. When you factor that stuff in the average house looks pretty affordable to the modern demographic of house buyers. If you think it's still 1970 and that you should be able to buy a house for 3x one salary, well, you're going to be disappointed.

Were you disappointed with the Brexit result Western? :T

ukcarper

Just for Crashy I thought I look to see what property like mine was selling for 20 years ago the best I could do was 1999 and it would take a 70% crash to get prices back to that level.

westernpromise

ukcarper wrote: »

Just for Crashy I thought I look to see what property like mine was selling for 20 years ago the best I could do was 1999 and it would take a 70% crash to get prices back to that level.

Crashy needs twice that.

brit1234

buglawton wrote: »

Typical British housing market, when demand falters, sellers decide to sit on their property rather than hold a fire sale.

Meanwhile a wall of Asian cash is approaching London to take advantage of the low £ - but it's smart money and they won't be looking for poorly-positioned £700k shoeboxes in mega-developments.

Which Asian countries are these?

I take it is not China with its capital controls, they can't take out enough money to buy these properties unless they fall to $30,000. Hasn't Singapore got similar conditions. I guess India is ok but I haven't heard any news investors from there suddenly pouring in.

Most of the evidence of foreign investors being likely to return not actually returning comes from high end estate agents trying to talk the market up. We do have wide spread evidence of Chinese investors pulling out of Nine Elms and other developments.

wotsthat

brit1234 wrote: »

Which Asian countries are these?

I take it is not China with its capital controls, they can't take out enough money to buy these properties unless they fall to $30,000. Hasn't Singapore got similar conditions. I guess India is ok but I haven't heard any news investors from there suddenly pouring in.

Most of the evidence of foreign investors being likely to return not actually returning comes from high end estate agents trying to talk the market up. We do have wide spread evidence of Chinese investors pulling out of Nine Elms and other developments.

Nine elms?

Don't you ever wish you'd bought a house in 2009 so you didn't have to clutter your mind with minutiae?

buglawton

brit1234 wrote: »

Which Asian countries are these?

I take it is not China with its capital controls, they can't take out enough money to buy these properties unless they fall to $30,000. Hasn't Singapore got similar conditions. I guess India is ok but I haven't heard any news investors from there suddenly pouring in.

Most of the evidence of foreign investors being likely to return not actually returning comes from high end estate agents trying to talk the market up. We do have wide spread evidence of Chinese investors pulling out of Nine Elms and other developments.

Capital controls in Asia never stopped a large proportion of newbuild London selling to Asians in the past. What changed? A typical scenario is relatives club together to buy a property for a nephew/niece who's got leave to remain, when gifting money capital controls are different, as with investment clubs.

As for Nine Elms:
http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/london-property-nervous-battersea-power-station-investors-slash-asking-prices-re-sell-1547647