**Don't Buy A House** House Prices Set To Crash!!!

Pakard

And another one  8) Monthly Repayments = 100% Nationwide House Price and (Bank Interest Rate + 2%), MIRAS not calculated
Price Earnings Ratio / 10 > Right axis; FSB x 1000 > Right axis; Nationwide House Price x 10000 > Left axis; Monthly Repayments > Left axis

deemy2004

A Big Graph for all of you    ;D   Made by me.

quote]

Yep, I think also that the house prices will decline for at least 2 straight years maybe 3. Though I think rates will rise alittle more than start falling towards the end of 2005 for a short while, maybe into end 2006

Pakard

And the last one "House Price – Gross Earnings Ratio".
Graphs are high resolutions  because I couldn’t find anything similar, with all facts on 3 graphs and accurate up to Q 3rd 2004. Data was taken from Council of Mortgage Lenders, Nationwide and Halifax and it is available on internet.  Data after end of 2004 is just hmmm... guess!!! A logical one ::) Now we can talk about House Market Crash!

deemy2004

Just so no ones sat scratching their heads

Pakard has also projected his forecast out to 2009/10 of what the stats will do.

So no nationwides NOT fallen from 155 to 115, well not yet anyway

Pakard

Shocking!  I know. Graphs bellow are… what estate agents and banks wants. Have a LOL. They are trying to sell you all this bellow.






Look that flat line... It's so unnatural.

But the optimists point out that exceptionally low interest rates have made mortgage repayments much more affordable. Average monthly payments gobble up only 20% of the average wage compared to 40% at the peak of the late Eighties bubble.
http://www.thisismoney.com/20040422/mh77310.html



20% of the average wage? … look the graphs… I can’t see 20%. Ohhh I forgot... I am earning £4000.00 a month. I wish.

Meanwhile the number of new mortgages being approved has slumped, with just 59,905 granted last month — down nearly a third on September last year. The numbers will send a shiver down the spines of homeowners.

"But none of this should mean there is a catastrophic housing slump looming" .

Have a nice sleep desperados and BTL guys… we will look after you…http://www.thesun.co.uk/article/0,,2-2004501773,00.html

But do these numbers mean a full-blown Nineties-style housing crash is on the cards? The answer depends on who you ask.
Salaries are rising slowly, while council tax and national insurance increases are hurting. Other living costs such as petrol and electricity are also rising.
At the same time first-time buyers are waiting for prices to fall further — and prices drop when there are no buyers.
http://www.thesun.co.uk/article/0,,2-2004501773,00.html

House prices 'could tumble 25%'
Jane Padgham, Evening Standard
29 October 2004
FEARS of a housing crash escalated today after a top City economist said a fall of between 20% and 25% in property prices could not be ruled out.http://www.thisismoney.com/20041029/nm84067.html
Professor David Miles, chief UK economist at Morgan Stanley and author of the Treasury-commissioned report into long-term fixed-rate mortgages, said the growing perception that housing is overvalued could be sufficient to tip the market into a sharp slide.
http://www.thisismoney.com/20041029/nm84067.html

Pakard

Have a nice sleep guys… I do not care anymore. I really don’t care…

deemy2004

Off course you care !

Else why go to the trouble of making all the graphs

Your waiting for the drop to buy back in  ;D

Snap ! 8)

wibble68_2

A very interesting topic indeed.

We could sit here and argue this one out till the cows come home.

First time buyers needing a crash to get in the market and property investers getting nervous about losing some of there investment.

The fact is nobody really knows.

It's my opinion that people who stand to lose from a crash are getting nervous.

There are many so called experts who are saying prices will not crash, and we'll only see moderate growth in the next few years.

This may well be true. But when listening to experts, note which organization the belong to.

The people saying there won't be a crash will almost certainly belong to a bank or an estate agent.

How many of these experts predicted the last crash, even when it was obvious.

We'll just have to see what happens.

But with prices overvalued by 30% and interest rates still very low, it's not hard to see which direction things could go.

deemy2004

Yes

and remember just as the market pushes prices to a 30% over valued state, it could also take prices to the other extremes.

In the mid 90's house prices had falled to a daft undervalued state (relative to earnings), i.e. in my neighbourhood you could pick up a 2 bed terraced for less than £10k ! Now those same houses are up at £50-60k !

I remember 1 on the market for 12k , I put in an offer for 9.5k, it was sold for about £10.5k, those same houses are now 50k !

So as house prices fall, they arent just going to fall to fair value, nope those actually trying to sell houses are going to find it very tough as the market will UNDER-VALUE them near the bottom.

michldavis

https://www.housepricecrash.co.uk

Yeah its happenning alright!