Winter fuel allowance.

Richie-from-the-Boro

chanz4 wrote: »

right in time for Christmas, the amount of people that don't use for heat

40,000 elderly poor died on this Island last year for lack of home heating in the winter - your comment ?

Ken68

The money is welcome Richie, but a bribe is a bribe and to get it from age 60 is bonkers.

luvchocolate

This is not paid from age 60...but on state retirement age.

brewerdave

luvchocolate wrote: »

This is not paid from age 60...but on state retirement age.

...USED to be from after 60th birthday -its now moved to the winter after actual State Pension age.

Cardew

Richie-from-the-Boro wrote: »

40,000 elderly poor died on this Island last year for lack of home heating in the winter - your comment ?

Richie,

Where did you get those statistics?

There has been masses written about 'Excess Winter Deaths' and some organisations have a vested interest in exaggerating.

This is the Government publication:

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/subnational-health2/excess-winter-mortality-in-england-and-wales/2013-14--provisional--and-2012-13--final-/stb.html

Method for calculating excess winter mortality



Excess deaths

Our standard method defines the winter period as December to March, and compares the number of deaths that occurred in this winter period with the average number of deaths occurring in the preceding August to November and the following April to July:

EWM = winter deaths - average non-winter deaths

This produces the number of excess winter deaths (EWDs), which is then rounded to the nearest 10 for final data and to the nearest 100 for provisional data.

Excess winter mortality index

Johnson and Griffiths (2003) (97.4 Kb Pdf) investigated seasonal mortality and reported that historically, above average mortality is typically seen between December and March. Therefore the standard ONS method for calculating excess winter mortality (EWM) defines the winter period as December to March. This calculation method uses the difference between non winter and winter months to calculate the difference between the two and produce a figure for EWD.

The EWM index is calculated so that comparisons can be made between sexes, age groups and regions, and is calculated as the number of excess winter deaths divided by the average non-winter deaths:

EWM Index = (EWM / average non-winter deaths) x 100
The EWM index is presented with 95% confidence intervals, which are calculated as:

EWM index ± 1.96 x (EWM Index / √ EWM)

The EWM index is expressed as a percentage and reported to 1 decimal place.

More details about how EWM is calculated are available in Background notes 2 and 3.

Figure 1: Excess winter deaths: by year and five-year central moving average, England and Wales, 1950/51–2013/14

Causes of excess winter mortality



A study by Healy (2003) showed that excess winter mortality (EWM) varied widely within Europe. The results show that countries with low winter temperatures in Scandinavia and Northern Europe, such as Finland and Germany, had very low rates of EWM. Conversely, countries with very mild winter temperatures in Southern Europe such as Portugal and Spain, had very high rates of EWM. England and Wales both have higher than average EWM and exhibit high variation in seasonal mortality.

There are many reasons why countries with milder winter climates have such a high level of winter mortality. For example, people who live in countries with warmer winters tend to take fewer precautions against the cold. The Eurowinter group (1997) reported that compared with people living in countries with cold winters, those from warmer countries were less likely to wear warm protective clothing in cold weather.

Countries with milder winters also tend to have homes with poorer thermal efficiency (for example, fewer homes have cavity wall insulation and double glazing), which makes it harder to keep homes warm during the winter (Healy, 2003). It has been shown that low indoor temperature is associated with higher EWM from cardiovascular disease in England (Wilkinson et al., 2001).

Although EWM is associated with low temperatures, conditions directly relating to cold, such as hypothermia, are not the main cause of EWM. The majority of additional winter deaths are caused by cerebrovascular diseases, ischaemic heart disease and respiratory diseases (The Eurowinter group, 1997 and ONS, 2013). Although cancer causes more than a quarter of all deaths annually, previous research (Johnson and Griffiths, 2003) (97.4 Kb Pdf) found that there was no clear seasonal pattern for these deaths.

The cold can have various physiological effects, which may lead to death in vulnerable people. Woodhouse et al (1993) reported that colder home temperature was associated with increased blood pressure in older people. The Eurowinter group (1997) noted that cold causes haemoconcentration, which leads to thrombosis, and that cold can also lower the immune system’s resistance to respiratory infections. Additionally, the level of influenza circulating in the population increases in winter. In vulnerable groups, for example in the elderly or those with pre-existing health problems, influenza can lead to life-threatening complications, such as bronchitis or secondary bacterial pneumonia (Public health England, 2014b).

Previous research has shown that although mortality does increase as it gets colder, temperature only explains a small amount of the variance in winter mortality, and high levels of EWM can occur during relatively mild winters (Brown et al, 2010) (293 Kb Pdf) Curwen and Devis (1988) showed that both temperature and levels of influenza were important predictors of excess winter mortality. Therefore the relationship between temperature, influenza and winter mortality is complex.

It is far too simplistic IMO to state deaths were caused by lack of home heating

ps2659

brewerdave wrote: »

...USED to be from after 60th birthday -its now moved to the winter after actual State Pension age.

You’ll qualify for Winter Fuel Payment if:

• you were born on or before 5 January 1953 (for winter 2015 to 2016 - this date changes every year)

Richie-from-the-Boro

Cardew wrote: »

Richie,

Where did you get those statistics?

There has been masses written about 'Excess Winter Deaths' and some organisations have a vested interest in exaggerating.

This is the Government publication:

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/subnational-health2/excess-winter-mortality-in-england-and-wales/2013-14--provisional--and-2012-13--final-/stb.html

It is far too simplistic IMO to state deaths were caused by lack of home heating

HiYa Cardew, in my opinion ....................

- 'where' - every headline in today's papers
- 'who to believe' - anyone but a politician in general, and in the particular any past or current GOV
- 'are the figures accurate' - accurate to what ±25% ±40% does not really matter ±1% is enough
- 'vested interest' is true of all, its the capacity for lies and manipulation [aka IDS & Shapps] that render all stats stage managed snake oil
- for myself 'verifiable by observation or experience' counts for a lot, deliberate skewing via political lobby or gerrymandered political collection much less so

It really does not matter. The bones of my argument is the great majority of those in receipt have already paid into the pot before retirement. The scattergun delivery system is the most economic way of delivering to that need, in the same way That David Cameron was entitled to tax free DLA & child allowance for his son even though he was already a multi millionaire.

Non-means-tested winter fuel payment for example might go to the purple haired grannie who had £240k in her current account who was evidenced as died from hypothermia as a direct result of being cold - certainly the she was not fuel poor - that does not mean in order to deliver to the really needy we should spend a disproportionate amount of the pot weeding out the 'purple haired wealthy grannies' and hitting the genuine with a much reduced funding pot.

You are appointed by me as with immediate effect as the czar for delivering non-means-tested winter fuel payments [and for example child benefit and free 3 year renewable TV licences]. You are now a minister without portfolio design a delivery system, cost it relevant to the current delivery systems, and do an impact study for those vulnerable population groups, and tell me how to stop people dying or worse still bed blocking costing Osborne mi££ions of extra support this and every winter. Deliver it to me next Monday before midday - no excuses.

Cardew

Whoa Richie, you really have got hold of the wrong end of the stick.
I am not in any way arguing against Winter Fuel Allowance(WFA).

My point is the emotive way that the newspapers attribute Excessive Winter Mortality(EWM) to pensioners being unable to afford heating in their houses.

The Government paper I linked to gave a balanced view of the number of deaths and both a definition and explanation of EWM. Put simply more people die in winter and:

The results show that countries with low winter temperatures in Scandinavia and Northern Europe, such as Finland and Germany, had very low rates of EWM. Conversely, countries with very mild winter temperatures in Southern Europe such as Portugal and Spain, had very high rates of EWM.

Richie-from-the-Boro

Cardew wrote: »

Whoa Richie, you really have got hold of the wrong end of the stick.
I am not in any way arguing against Winter Fuel Allowance(WFA).

My point is the emotive way that the newspapers attribute Excessive Winter Mortality(EWM) to pensioners being unable to afford heating in their houses.

The Government paper I linked to gave a balanced view of the number of deaths and both a definition and explanation of EWM. Put simply more people die in winter and:

In which case I apologise unreservedly Cardew.

Winter excess mortality - yes more old folks do die in the winter, not always because of actual temperature, though lousy housing standards, poor insulation and lack of GOV support on insulating and 'keeping warm' could help with preventable harm to this age group. The fact is its too high, it was too high in the 1988 survey and its too still high now as a UK stat.

Cardew

For all of the many studies into Excessive Winter Mortality(EWM) nobody has been able to accurately quantify the contributing factors.


Over the years on MSE I have been surprised at just how low many people set their thermostats; 16C to 18C seems acceptable for many people. With some people there is almost a sense of pride in being able to tolerate cold.

That said I had close relatives who were well off and lived in a lovely centrally heated bungalow, and it was as cold as a morgue.

They were not in any way 'tight'; in fact extremely generous. They took expensive holidays and drove nice cars and had no children to leave their extensive estate!

So having a cold property was in no way driven by the need to economise. When they stayed at my place, they thought it was too warm at 20C in the evenings. Their bedrooms were never heated and they had the windows open 'to get fresh air' even in winter.


I wish the £200/£300 WFA could be better targeted to pay for heating, but have no sensible suggestions how that aim could be achieved. Some years ago Powergen had an 'all inclusive' Staywarm tariff i.e. you paid a fixed sum for a year regardless of consumption; perhaps something along those lines??