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Glencore
Comments
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I'm happy having a direct 5% allocation to diggers on top of what I hold via trackers. I'm even doing top ups as I rebalance.I am not a financial adviser and neither do I play one on television. I might occasionally give bad advice but at least it's free.
Like all religions, the Faith of the Invisible Pink Unicorns is based upon both logic and faith. We have faith that they are pink; we logically know that they are invisible because we can't see them.0 -
gadgetmind wrote: »I'm happy having a direct 5% allocation to diggers on top of what I hold via trackers. I'm even doing top ups as I rebalance.
Overall, right now, on the recent large commodity price falls, I'm in for around 15-20%, although my "normal" exposure would be around 10%.
There is a pleasure in the pathless woods, There is a rapture on the lonely shore, There is society, where none intrudes, By the deep sea, and music in its roar: I love not man the less, but Nature more...0 -
Wow, you like your diggers!I am not a financial adviser and neither do I play one on television. I might occasionally give bad advice but at least it's free.
Like all religions, the Faith of the Invisible Pink Unicorns is based upon both logic and faith. We have faith that they are pink; we logically know that they are invisible because we can't see them.0 -
gadgetmind wrote: »Wow, you like your diggers!
I like them when we see market conditions that we're seeing today.
However, as I've said before, this is a medium-long term strategy, not a short term view.
As always, time will only tell!
There is a pleasure in the pathless woods, There is a rapture on the lonely shore, There is society, where none intrudes, By the deep sea, and music in its roar: I love not man the less, but Nature more...0 -
Malthusian wrote: »
When the IPO launched the tipsters said it was run by marvellously clever people and anyone who didn't invest in Glencore was clearly too stupid to understand it. Now they're all saying no-one should have invested in it because its business model is incomprehensible and Buffet says "don't invest in what you don't understand". Hah.
Agree totally. What should be a simple business isn't. A huge amount of Glencore's activity and profit comes from commodity trading not digging dirt out of the ground. So there's an opaqueness to the business model.0 -
worldtraveller wrote: »I like them when we see market conditions that we're seeing today.
Yes, I liked the banks back in the crunchy credit days, and did well from both ords and prefs. Similarly, European property during the "It's the Euro, she's breaking up!" days.
Some of these will clearly go wrong from time to time, but the "double your money in a year" from the rest tends to compensate.I am not a financial adviser and neither do I play one on television. I might occasionally give bad advice but at least it's free.
Like all religions, the Faith of the Invisible Pink Unicorns is based upon both logic and faith. We have faith that they are pink; we logically know that they are invisible because we can't see them.0 -
worldtraveller wrote: »
My main rationale is, as we've seen in the past in this type of market, is that in a slump production is severely curtailed; plants are closed, or mothballed; new projects are put on the back burner, or shelved. While factories can add a new production line in weeks, new mines can take years to develop, while older mines take months to shut down and restart. Therefore, as production is reduced, often considerably, it then doesn't take much of an upturn to push prices up higher, very quickly, whilst production tries to catch up again with demand.
Glencore needs cash to pay down debt. Simply mothballing plant and mines isn't viable. Paying redundancy costs has to be funded too. Glencore will sell assets. $30 billion of debt isn't cheap to service.0 -
Thrugelmir wrote: »Glencore needs cash to pay down debt. Simply mothballing plant and mines isn't viable. Paying redundancy costs has to be funded too. Glencore will sell assets. $30 billion of debt isn't cheap to service.
Fair call, but, although this thread is primarily about Glencore, I wasn't addressing Glencore, per se, in that specific post. Glencore are under 7% of my exposure in the fund I mentioned. Their recent SP volatility (+35% in the past 5 days / -46% in the past 3 months) is nothing major in the overall picture of that fund.There is a pleasure in the pathless woods, There is a rapture on the lonely shore, There is society, where none intrudes, By the deep sea, and music in its roar: I love not man the less, but Nature more...0 -
worldtraveller wrote: »Fair call, but, although this thread is primarily about Glencore, I wasn't addressing Glencore, per se, in that specific post. Glencore are under 7% of my exposure in the fund I mentioned. Their recent SP volatility (+35% in the past 5 days /-46% in the past 3 months) is nothing major in the overall picture of that fund.
No miner is immune to the others activity.0 -
Thrugelmir wrote: »No miner is immune to the others activity.
Yes, but there are major degrees to that lack of immunity. Like any business, there are many factors in play, not least of which is the particular commodity at any particular time in any cycle. I can go on forever debating the commodity business and when, IMHO, is the best time to invest, but only time will tell, who's right, or wrong.
Personally speaking, it's the one area where I've made my biggest returns on investments over the past 20 years or so, so it's one of the markets I've researched more than most others.There is a pleasure in the pathless woods, There is a rapture on the lonely shore, There is society, where none intrudes, By the deep sea, and music in its roar: I love not man the less, but Nature more...0
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