11 house hunters for every home on the market

chucknorris

Crashy_Time wrote: »

More housing equity means nothing, the house hasn`t changed, the equity is still illiquid, that means less options IMO. There will be many in Aberdeen right now learning this lesson the hard way.

Most wealthy people do not store all of their wealth in cash (I realise that you don't actually know how foolish that would be), it makes much more sense to store it in a diversified portfolio of assets (property, shares, bonds etc.). I haven't got around to the bonds yet, but when I start selling some property, I will probably do so (bonds are not that appealing to me, but I accept that it makes sense to strive for the diversity that they offer), so property equity does not mean nothing (as you stated).

gadgetmind

Crashy_Time wrote: »

I It is fun watching people trying to deny an obvious and unsustainable credit bubble.

It's also fun watching people make testable predictions, only to have them proven to be incorrect, but for these people to not even consider tweaking their theories.

I do think that London prices have lost contact with affordability, but the same was true a decade ago, and look what's happened since.

Elsewhere in the country, there really doesn't seem to be too much of a problem. Daughter recently bought a house in Nottingham, an ex-council 3-bed end terrace on a corner plot with off road parking, for £125k. How far are prices going to "crash" from those heady heights?

lisyloo

Depends I think on whether you're in the north or south.
You wouldn't get much in places like say Bristol (which is NOT south east) for £125k.
Yeah sure the north is cheap but it always comes down to the same thing. There aren't millions of jobs in places that are cheaper and that's why they are cheaper.
If you're retired then great, move somewhere cheap, if you're not then in general you need to live where the jobs are and those places are more expensive.

I don't think anyone knows what's going to happen. The recent btl budget changes and Jeremy corbyn as leader has shown how quickly things (like prospects for btl) can turnaround. even rising population which seems a racing certainty has been altered by merkel saying Come to Germany.
Anyone who pretends they know what's going to happen is kidding themselves.
You can of course take a view and recognise the risks, but that's not the same as pretending you know what's going to happen.

sebadee

This is a mix of:

* More people entering the country then leaving (net migration)
* Low rate of new builds (thanks to strict planning laws, government non-intervention and NIMBY's kicking off campaigns to block or delay new build projects).
* Market prices so high that, that most cannot afford to move up the chain (they could not even afford the houses they are in, should they be a FTB again).
* The only means to address the situation being super low interest rates , and 'help to buy' schemes, thereby making the situation even worse.

lisyloo

5) interest rates expected to rise.

Some people think that's a real big one and in fact house prices are totLled coupled to interest rates. I don't think it's quite the simple but it's a major factor factor you left out.

sebadee

lisyloo wrote: »

General question:

Do you believe that there is a point where people say "F** this for a game of soldiers" and move out of London to take up other options? e.g. move up North.
If so, how far are we off that point?

We just did this. We were not in London, but Surrey (and not prime Surrey) and to buy a small 2/3 bed would have been around 250-300k and in the not so nice areas. We wanted a three bed as we have two kids and wanted them to have their own room for when they get older.

We now have a lovely three bed semi just outside Chippenham and its the best move we ever made. I have to commute longer hours, but as I a tech worker, I can be flexible and do some calls / work from home.

So pleased we did this and were it not for high prices, we might not have. People are much more friendly down here and its a great place to raise the family.

It also feels so good to know that the grand that direct debits out of the bank each week, has a sizble amount going to our future, and not a landlords. I don't mean that as to hate on the landlord, there is a good need for rentals, but when you're playing for the long shot and have a family to raise, it really gnaws at you inners.

lisyloo

Yay - welcome to Chippenham (Wiltshire?)

sebadee

lisyloo wrote: »

Yay - welcome to Chippenham (Wiltshire?)

Yep, 10 minute drive to Bath and about 30 minutes to Bristol. Also the M4 is about 5 minutes away. Prices are a bit lower in Chippenham as the high street is not that great, but we don't even really bother with the high street, if we want to go shopping we go to Bath / Bristol.

The countryside is really beautiful. we are right on the edge of the Cotswold (Castle Combe etc). I would really recommend it to anyone who commutes the M4.

I should add to my further post, I am quite well paid / high skilled (Senior Software Architect in Enterprise IT) and even we were pushed to far budget wise to get into a very small 2/3 bed house. Its nuts. We could have borrowed silly money, but no way I want to expose us to that much debt. Here is an example of the cheaper areas near where we were http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-36633051.html

mystic_trev

Crashy_Time wrote: »

It is fun watching people trying to deny an obvious and unsustainable credit bubble. Nice insight into the human condition though....

It's been fun watching HPC predict gloom and doom for the last 11 years. Nice insight into the human condition though....

wotsthat

Crashy_Time wrote: »

More housing equity means nothing, the house hasn`t changed, the equity is still illiquid, that means less options IMO. There will be many in Aberdeen right now learning this lesson the hard way.

Wealth and liquidity aren't the same thing. Just because you think the only wealth is cash doesn't make that a universal truth. You're just wrong.