How panic-y have you got ?

Kendall80

EdGasket wrote: »

QE bubble burst? Wouldn't that just be high inflation which ought to help equities?

Indeed, just like the Feds decision to hold rates ought to have helped equities (it did for about 20 minutes! - according to IG graphs).


Euro QE and Japan QE should also be helping but it seems bearish sentiment/news regarding the global economy is the driver right now.

cisamcgu

bowlhead99 wrote: »

That's right, the wobblers and trolls always turn up when markets move, spouting misguided panicky nonsense like:

:doh:

Thanks for playing your small part in any crash to come.

I had hoped this thread would be more of a reminicing type of thing - people remembering when they had a panic in the past and if it turned out to be a wise/foolish move. It really wasn't about the current slippage in the equities markets. Honest ! :beer:

Thrugelmir

jem16 wrote: »

You avoided the question.

So if not at the moment, when? When is a good time?

That's a broad statement. Selective picking of stocks is the key. Simply buying the market (broad based fund) isn't necessarily the right thing to do. As there's plenty of not so good news filtering out. If one follows company results.

grey_gym_sock

EdGasket wrote: »

I'm seriously considering bailing out entirely if both the following happen:
1) Dow drops below 16000 (a correction turning into a rout)
2) Gold starts picking up (sign of panic setting in)

The exceptions would be any property-related shares and gold mining shares.

Don't know if that's panicky or a considered view? Markets never crash from a peak, they fall off a ledge which I reckon is around 16000 on DOW. What do you think?

all we really know is that at 16000 it's better value than it was at 18000.

it could fall a lot further. or not. we don't know.

you're either panicking, or attempting to do some kind of short-term trend-reading thing. do you have any reason to believe you're good at doing that? because it's certainly not easy to do. and there is no requirement to even try - the alternative is just staying invested, and rebalancing (if you have given yourself rules for when to do that).

jem16

Thrugelmir wrote: »

That's a broad statement. Selective picking of stocks is the key.

Yes I know but the question was based on this post which is too broad.

A_Flock_Of_Sheep wrote: »

With further heavy losses to come folk are stupid to be buying equities at this time.

EdGasket

grey_gym_sock wrote: »

all we really know is that at 16000 it's better value than it was at 18000.

it could fall a lot further. or not. we don't know.

you're either panicking, or attempting to do some kind of short-term trend-reading thing. do you have any reason to believe you're good at doing that? because it's certainly not easy to do. and there is no requirement to even try - the alternative is just staying invested, and rebalancing (if you have given yourself rules for when to do that).

In general markets fall off a ledge, not from a peak. The Dow has been hovering around 16000 for a while now and if it turns down it could be nasty.

grey_gym_sock

EdGasket wrote: »

In general markets fall off a ledge, not from a peak. The Dow has been hovering around 16000 for a while now and if it turns down it could be nasty.

you're claiming that if the dow falls from here, it could fall a long way. OK, let's suppose that's true. how does that help, if you don't know whether it will fall from here?

to have a sensible plan for selling now, you need to have a theory on the lines of: there is an X% chance of a fall of at least 25% within Y days. if that big fall doesn't happen, then the market would be expected to rise by only 10% . i will sell now, and buy back either when there is a 25% fall, or after Y days, whichever comes first. (you can fill in X and Y, and amend the 25% and 10% figures to match your opinions.)

that is all very well - i.e. if such a detailed theory is true, it could indeed to rational to sell now. but do you have confidence in the detailed theory? because the vaguer theory - that if there's a fall from here, it could be a big 1 - doesn't make it rational to sell. because the probability of a fall may be too low, and the likely bounce-back if there is no further fall (which you'd miss out on by selling) may be too big. and you may not have a clear strategy of when to buy back in.

EdGasket

I explained my theory a few posts ago. Dow less than 16000 and rising gold. Both happened today so I sold everything that was showing a profit. Dow has since recovered some however if there is a futher lurch down in DOW and rise in gold then I'm out of everything except gold. If you dont move then you are like a rabbit caught in the headlights; frozen still watching your death.

grey_gym_sock

well, that's not a detailed theory (in the sense i used in my previous post). where are your numbers, especially the percentage fall expected, and how long you'll wait for it? precisely on what conditions will you buy back in? your answer should cover both buying back in after you're proved right (i.e. there's been a big fall), and after you're proved wrong (i.e. when a big fall no longer seems likely).

you could be a technical trading superstar, or you could be panicking. i don't know which, though i don't feel your reliance on the gold price as a signal is a good sign. a rise probably indicates that ppl are a bit panicky now, though i could have guessed that without looking at the gold price. but why should it tell us what the dow is going to do next?

EdGasket

The gold price is an indicator of people seeking a safe haven and losing faith in the stockmarket and economy in general. Just another indicator; if it isn't rising strongly then there's no actual panic going on, maybe just a correction to market excesses.