How panic-y have you got ?

Glen_Clark

chucknorris wrote: »

When I bought my first investment properties in the early 90's, a lot of my work colleagues said that I was crazy, because there were 'further heavy losses to come' (just like you are now saying with equities).

Like when shares fall and people say wait till the situation becomes more clear before investing. Problem is by that time shares have usually risen again.

chucknorris

Glen_Clark wrote: »

Like when shares fall and people say wait till the situation becomes more clear before investing. Problem is by that time shares have usually risen again.

It helps me to think along the lines of 'when will I start selling shares to live off the proceeds?', and as that time is probably at least 20 years away, it is then easier for me to rationalise, and ask myself 'do I think shares will be higher during that 20 years?', to which the answer is yes. I don't expect to buy at the bottom and sell at the top, I just want to earn some decent dividend income and hopefully make some capital gain (above inflation) over the long term. I definitely don't want to hold much cash, and suffer depreciation.

Kendall80

Glen_Clark wrote: »

Another buy signal from you.:)
S&P 500 just recorded biggest weekly gain of the year
My portfolio has gained about 10% since you posted that

Last week may have been good but next week maybe the worst. A brief pullback before the downtrend continues?


It was good to see my portfolio YTD losses eliminated in a single week but my pessimism is still far outweighing my optimism. I'm prepared either way.

Gadfium

A_Flock_Of_Sheep wrote: »

With further heavy losses to come folk are stupid to be buying equities at this time.

Threads about crashes are like tinfoil to a magpie for you :rotfl:

If the intention is to buy stuff now, hold it for many years and then sell in the future then surely the time to buy stuff is when the price is low?

Or are you really suggesting that the best time to buy is when the price is at it's highest???

Mistermeaner

Anyone confident of crashes should be shorting - what could possibly go wrong?

chucknorris

Gadfium wrote: »

Threads about crashes are like tinfoil to a magpie for you :rotfl:

If the intention is to buy stuff now, hold it for many years and then sell in the future then surely the time to buy stuff is when the price is low?

Or are you really suggesting that the best time to buy is when the price is at it's highest???

Some posters are just wired to be really pessimistic, to the point where they defy logic.

agent69

Gadfium wrote: »

Or are you really suggesting that the best time to buy is when the price is at it's highest???

Never try to guess the top or the bottom of the market. Always leave the last 10% for the [STRIKE]fools[/STRIKE] experts.

jimjames

Gadfium wrote: »

Threads about crashes are like tinfoil to a magpie for you :rotfl:

If the intention is to buy stuff now, hold it for many years and then sell in the future then surely the time to buy stuff is when the price is low?

Or are you really suggesting that the best time to buy is when the price is at it's highest???

One of the reasons I posted this example of investing over a period of time which has included quite a few dips and many saying prices were too high, was to show that it makes no difference what the markets are doing if your main aim is income.

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/5336097

If your aim is long term capital growth then it makes very little difference too, you should be wanting to buy when there are dips but as that's impossible to time it's far easier to just keep investing every month.

Glen_Clark

Being a pessimist makes one more likely to get a pleasant surprise than a disappointment.
But looking at the National Debt keep rising I am more pessimistic about the value of the pound than I am about a diversified equity portfolio. So thats where most of my savings are.

grey_gym_sock

Glen_Clark wrote: »

Being a pessimist makes one more likely to get a pleasant surprise than a disappointment.

absolutely.

But looking at the National Debt keep rising I am more pessimistic about the value of the pound than I am about a diversified equity portfolio. So thats where most of my savings are.

i don't think the national debt has much to do with how much inflation we should expect.

despite all the bluster about the national debt being at crisis levels, i don't think there's any problem with it. (that's just osborne's excuse for cutting public services, which he wants to do anyway.)

the national debt to GDP ratio is not at all high by historical standards. and the official figure is overstating the debt because they are still counting the £375bn of gilts which the bank of england bought back in the QE programme (you can't owe money to yourself!).

the effect of QE was that there is an extra £375bn of bank reserves (i.e. cash) in place of the £375bn of gilts. a lot of people thought that creating that extra cash would cause inflation, but it's not happening!

basically, neither the outstanding national debt nor outstanding amount of cash seem to cause inflation. what causes inflation is when the public and private sectors between them attempt to buy more than the total capacity of the economy can produce.

we don't have much inflation now because there is plenty of unused capacity: there is still high unemployment + under-employment (i.e. part-time workers who want to work full time or for more hours; and many ppl who've become self-employed only because they can't find anything better, or because the benefits system is pushing them that way, and who aren't actually doing much work).

if too much demand leads to high inflation, and too little leads to high under-employment, then i think we're clearly on the "too little" side.