HPC thread of the week

mayonnaise

Crashy_Time wrote: »

Well lets watch this theory in action in Aberdeen first, because that is looking like the first proper HPC (since the blip in 2008, quickly plastered over by a panicking PTB) then lets see how many ex-BTL`s get "snapped up" , and at what price, and finally, for the main event, lets watch how China, oil, EZ banking problems etc. affect banks and general credit, plus of course the sacred London market. Should be interesting

Can you put a time frame on this, put some meat on the bone?
Thanks.

Crashy_Time

mayonnaise wrote: »

Can you put a time frame on this, put some meat on the bone?
Thanks.

Asking for time frames, "more meat on the bone" doesn`t change what is actually happening, even Hamish can (now) tell you that...
:rotfl:

cells

Crashy_Time wrote: »

When Mathew Wright is on air sounding like a HPC`er, there is little chance that your opinions on here are going to have much effect on mass sentiment, because that is what we are talking about, sentiment, not de-constructing graphs and stats to suit a pet narrative. How many purchases have you made BTW?

we shall see

only thing I will say is that I am in the market and can see that inner London is on fire with properties selling in days even crap ex council properties that were half the price 3 years ago are being bought very quickly and often for a over asking price.

Prices feel crazy based on what they were 3 years ago but yields are still reasonable at close to gross 5% on the lower end. The world is awash with savings and wealth and property in a country like England yielding 5% plus inflation seems a good bet when the alternatives are things like German or Japan 10 year bonds at 1% or shares at 3% or bank accounts at 1% etc

mwpt

Crashy_Time wrote: »

Well lets watch this theory in action in Aberdeen first, because that is looking like the first proper HPC (since the blip in 2008, quickly plastered over by a panicking PTB) then lets see how many ex-BTL`s get "snapped up" , and at what price, and finally, for the main event, lets watch how China, oil, EZ banking problems etc. affect banks and general credit, plus of course the sacred London market. Should be interesting

You're still missing the point. In Aberdeen fundamentals are changing. Job losses means lack of demand for properties and less money being thrown about. Sentiment didn't just change because people realised prices were "too high".

If credit conditions change I have no doubt this will impact London prices, but again, this is not the same thing as a sudden sentiment change for no reason.

My point was that I argued on HPC that sentiment alone will not change or drive down prices, it would need a credit or other such event to do so. So you agree with this, yet those posts got me banned from HPC.

mwpt

cells wrote: »

And that will continue so long as mortgages are rationed

Mortgages are not being rationed. We have a range of historically affordable and obtainable products available.

Out,_Vile_Jelly

westernpromise wrote: »

Yet the HPC house view seems to be that those who bought to occupy are in fact speculators (and mugs), whereas they, who speculatively did not buy, are the only honest actors and also deeply shrewd.

Takes all sorts, I suppose.

I've browsed many a geeky, specialist forum in my time on the internet. All will have their own community lingo and will be united by common interests, but will enjoy arguing the finer points (I refuse to acknowledge The X-Files after season 7 for example). What I find particularly intriguing about HPC is the intensity of that group bonding, and how they draw strength from denigrating The Others. It's how I imagine the violent religious fervour of the sixteenth century to be like. There are certain phrases that are repeated, almost as mantras:

-debt junkies
-mortgage slaves
-sheeple
-money spunking expert
- new build slave box
- and of course the soothing, rosary-bead reiteration of CRASH

Their righteousness depends on the heretical wrongness of The Others, who of course all:

- are on IO deals
- were able to buy only with HtB or the BoMaD
- have massive credit card debts
- bought tiny, miserable new build dumps in places no HPC would condescend to live
- are massively leveraged BTL scumlords
- spend their spare time throwing dinner parties at which they point and laugh at renters

They have to believe the above. Acknowledging that most owners in the UK are normal folk with regular mortgages who aren't interested in economics and don't particularly care whether their friends/neighbours rent or own would make themselves less special.

Note that the handful of posters on here who ONLY post to bang on about high prices being awesome, renters being losers etc are just the the flipside of the coin and don't help at all.

cells

mwpt wrote: »

Mortgages are not being rationed. We have a range of historically affordable and obtainable products available.

the disappearance of self cert means mortgages are non existent for those who could only get a self cert mortgage.

That might be as much as 10% of the population but that 10% is an important 3 million households.

mwpt

cells wrote: »

the disappearance of self cert means mortgages are non existent for those who could only get a self cert mortgage.

That might be as much as 10% of the population but that 10% is an important 3 million households.

Re-introducing self cert will not get any more houses built and will drive prices up as more effective demand is created. This is not what is keeping people from owning homes, high houses prices are.

Crashy_Time

cells wrote: »

the disappearance of self cert means mortgages are non existent for those who could only get a self cert mortgage.

That might be as much as 10% of the population but that 10% is an important 3 million households.

Important to you and your HPI dreams maybe, but nobody else gives a stuff, certainly not the government?

Crashy_Time

Out,_Vile_Jelly wrote: »

I've browsed many a geeky, specialist forum in my time on the internet. All will have their own community lingo and will be united by common interests, but will enjoy arguing the finer points (I refuse to acknowledge The X-Files after season 7 for example). What I find particularly intriguing about HPC is the intensity of that group bonding, and how they draw strength from denigrating The Others. It's how I imagine the violent religious fervour of the sixteenth century to be like. There are certain phrases that are repeated, almost as mantras:

-debt junkies
-mortgage slaves
-sheeple
-money spunking expert
- new build slave box
- and of course the soothing, rosary-bead reiteration of CRASH

Their righteousness depends on the heretical wrongness of The Others, who of course all:

- are on IO deals
- were able to buy only with HtB or the BoMaD
- have massive credit card debts
- bought tiny, miserable new build dumps in places no HPC would condescend to live
- are massively leveraged BTL scumlords
- spend their spare time throwing dinner parties at which they point and laugh at renters

They have to believe the above. Acknowledging that most owners in the UK are normal folk with regular mortgages who aren't interested in economics and don't particularly care whether their friends/neighbours rent or own would make themselves less special.

Note that the handful of posters on here who ONLY post to bang on about high prices being awesome, renters being losers etc are just the the flipside of the coin and don't help at all.

Problem with that theory is that the MSM are now more and more taking the HPC line, and the tiny huddle of posters, some obviously quite troubled individuals, on here look increasingly like a gang of medieval alchemists hiding from the authorities (we had it, we had it! Endless HPI, forever!):rotfl: