HPC thread of the week

westernpromise

There are four main differences between here and HPC.

- On MSE you aren't banned if you disagree with the site owners;
- On MSE you are banned if you hurl abuse at people you envy;.
- MSE's regulars haven't been precisely wrong about house prices for 13 years;
- MSE's regulars are largely indifferent to house prices because few are short term speculators looking to sell out at the top; HPC's regulars are obsessed with house prices because they are short term speculators looking to buy in at the bottom.

In consequence, the tone between the two places is angry and entitled at HPC versus measured and relaxed here.

westernpromise

Joeskeppi wrote: »

His analysis was "house prices must fall because it matches the pattern on this picture and because of silver".


Top work Frisby.

It's astonishing how few people realise that Moneyweek shares a publisher with the Daily Mail. Says it all really.

Moneyweek's predictions for 2008 were a hoot.

cells

if that site is biased to London and the SE it will be doing a disservice to those in the north and midlands where prices are cheap and people should be buying. the london and the SE group think will make some posters on there think that their town in the north too needs to crash 65% when it is in fact a cheap affordable town

Rich2808

cells wrote: »

if that site is biased to London and the SE it will be doing a disservice to those in the north and midlands where prices are cheap and people should be buying. the london and the SE group think will make some posters on there think that their town in the north too needs to crash 65% when it is in fact a cheap affordable town

How is it biased.

They have whole sub forums to discussing the housing market in the north east or Northern Ireland or Wales.

And it's all relative. To a Londoner a house costing £125k may seem cheap. But in a town with high unemployment where the median wage is £15k it may seem far from cheap. Yes it's all relative.

cells

Rich2808 wrote: »

How is it biased.

They have whole sub forums to discussing the housing market in the north east or Northern Ireland or Wales.

And it's all relative. To a Londoner a house costing £125k may seem cheap. But in a town with high unemployment where the median wage is £15k it may seem far from cheap. Yes it's all relative.

the median wage does not vary that much across the regions.

And the main forum is what almost everyone reads the sub forums get probably less than 1% of the views and posts.

if the main forum is full of Londoners all complaining prices are too high and its gona crash and if you are from stoke-on-Trent you may be influenced into group think when the reality is stoke-on-trent is ultra cheap and affordable with the average terraace going for just £45k which is less than 1.5 x full time male wage of stoke

caronoel

Rich2808 wrote: »

How is it biased.

You may want to look up the term "confirmation bias"

I wonder how the Count of Nowhere is getting on in his French villa these days...

TheeMaskedTurnip

caronoel wrote: »

You may want to look up the term "confirmation bias"

I wonder how the Count of Nowhere is getting on in his French villa these days...

Must have gone terribly as it sounds like he's back in Blighty.

westernpromise

Meanwhile, HPC sage and guru "Venger"'s predictive ability isn't getting any better.

Here's a gem from him from 2013.
http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/192388-london-is-cheap/?p=909390923

"Wait until after your teaser rate mortgage deals end for buying, and more people slapped on 4%-6.5%+ SVRs."

I love this "just wait until..." (followed by some ludicrous tinfoil bit of nuttiness) that one finds on HPC and among crashtrolls generally.

Since poor old Renter, sorry Venger, wrote that post, we've seen the cheapest 10-year fix ever - sub-3% IIRC. And I wonder how many mortgage lenders have had an SVR as high as 6.5% this century?

Why are people with poor judgement never aware they have poor judgement?

Edit: actually, the whole thread is worth a read. The OP in it is right on the money both with his maths and his reasoning. The natives go berserk, hurl their faeces etc. but 2.5 years on, he was right and they're all wrong.

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/192388-london-is-cheap/

Aberdeenangarse

JoeJoe1 wrote: »

I love the post about repairs to property being a reason not to buy a property. Laughable. 'You need a new roof every 30 years'. LOL, my roof is over 250 years old!

That may be so Joe. But the amount of times Renomans been banned, shows he hasn't got much 'up top'

mwpt

JoeJoe1 wrote: »

I love the post about repairs to property being a reason not to buy a property. Laughable. 'You need a new roof every 30 years'. LOL, my roof is over 250 years old!

In the time I've owned my house (just under two yeas) I've spent:
- £180 to have some minor roof repairs done
- £100 on a ladder to fix a gutter which had sagged and was causing damp in the rendering
- £90 on drill and bits to do the job
- £0.53 on PTFE tape to fix a leaking radiator
- £150 on a lawn mower
- £500 on a fridge (estimated)
- £500 on a dishwasher (estimated)
- £10 on products to unblock my outside drain
- £200 on paint and tools
- £45 on saucepan rack
- £100 on gardening stuff (soil, gravel, tools, etc)
- A lot on furniture
- Must be a lot else I'm not remembering

(Oh and time to do the jobs, which I value highly, though fixing suff yourself is also rewarding)

So far, no big expenses, but the little stuff does add up. I budgeted £1500 pa (over long term) for housing maintenance when I costed everything making the decision to buy vs rent. Not sure if I over or under estimated.