Corbynomics: A Dystopia

setmefree2

Sleaford proves Labour isn’t connecting with the 52% – or the 48%

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/dec/09/sleaford-byelection-labour-52-48-brexit

.string.

setmefree2 wrote: »

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/dec/09/sleaford-byelection-labour-52-48-brexit

But, to be fair, they connect really well to the 6%(*) Don't Knows or Don't Cares!

(*) --- or whatever.

TrickyTree83

.string. wrote: »

But, to be fair, they connect really well to the 6%(*) Don't Knows or Don't Cares!

(*) --- or whatever.

A.K.A "The Confused", i.e. welfare hating socialists.

Comedy gold.

TrickyTree83

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

He's finished.

No amount of u-turns will save him or Labour now. The membership have only themselves to blame.

Above post at 1:38pm.

I beat him to it.

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/labour-is-just-a-carcass-for-trots-to-feast-on-3svwnck0v

setmefree2

Labour MP Jamie Reed quitting Parliament

He will stand down at the end of January, triggering a by-election in a seat Labour retained in 2015 with a 2,564 majority.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-38390152

It is expected that the Labour Party will struggle to hold on to the seat that voted for Brexit by 23,528 to 14,419 votes.

In recent months there has been growing speculation that moderate Labour MPs could begin quitting the party, particularly in the wake of Mr Corbyn’s re-election as leader in Autumn.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/12/21/labour-mp-jamie-reed-quits-sparking-copeland-by-election/

setmefree2

Another One Bites The Dust?

Corbyn 'won't intervene' in Hilary Benn deselection row

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-38602674

Zxcv_Bnm

All those mugs who think Labour will be electable again once Corbyn loses in or before 2020 should think hard about this sort of story.

The type of people they think are future non-loony leaders have to hang onto their seats first. Big, big ask, as Tristram Hunt has just shown. Even if the seat is safe from the Tories the sitting MP may not be safe from his own local party.

A Labour Party reduced to 150 MPs will contain lots of nutters - the first challenge will be finding 23 "normal" MPs to nominate one "normal" candidate. The second challenge will be for him (it will have to be a him - this is Labour) winning an election from an electorate of people like Rugged Toast to whom anyone right of Trotsky is a fascist.

westernpromise

Agreed. A Labour Party with 150 MPs will find their numbers dominated by loonies - because they can keep their seat and are in one of the safe seats where the toxic loonies have been piling in.

The type of Labour MP who'll get deselected or who will lose at the GE if not is relatively sane and sits in a seat that is not especially safe. So either they'll lose the seat to fight and a lefty will lose or they'll hang on but will lose it anyway.

Doom beckons.

davomcdave

westernpromise wrote: »

Agreed. A Labour Party with 150 MPs will find their numbers dominated by loonies - because they can keep their seat and are in one of the safe seats where the toxic loonies have been piling in.

I'm neither disagreeing nor agreeing with this, just asking: how do you know that these seats are what the lunatic fringe is targeting? If I was a Leninist entryist hell bent on turning Britain into a Northern European version of North Korea only without the sense of humour then I'd be targeting the safe seats too but I'm interested to understand what's happening.

westernpromise wrote: »

Doom beckons.

By the time of the next election nobody under the age of 60 will have elected a Labour government led by anyone other than Tony Blair. I suspect the Blair government will come to be seen as an oddity, a political hiccup, like Lloyd George was for the Liberals. Labour really died with the Winter of Discontent only in 1979 there was nobody to take their place. Today we have the SNP in Scotland and ??? in England. That's the only thing that could save Labour is there is nothing to replace them but the longer they stay on the fringes the more time someone (Blair?) has to get their act together to replace them.

westernpromise

It's not so much to do with where they're targeting. It's more that in seats that have been leftist for ever, it follows that there are more lefties. Hence, trivially, there are also more hard lefties who see a chance to infiltrate the seat and win it for Marxism. It follows that safer seats are more susceptible to being subverted by Momentum, and thus that even if this does happen, Labour will keep the seat anyway, with a loony MP.

In moderately strong seats, this chance must be lower. There may not be enough loonies to take over the seat if there are not that many lefties to begin with. But whether there are or not, Labour then meets the problem that the sitting MP, whether moderate or loony, has to face a centrist electorate with Labour's loony message. There is a very good chance that the Tories will take swathes of these seats as the Conservative vote hardens while the left vote splits between Labour and LibDem.

Labour must take seats directly from the Tories to win a GE. Taking them off the SNP or the LibDems is no use. These seats are already opposition seats and to take them leaves them in the opposition tally, just with a different rosette. This means that in the 50th to 60th most marginal Tory seats - places like Northampton South, Hendon, and Worcester - Labour has to turn 2015's typical Con 50% / Lab 31% result into Con 40% / Lab 41%. So 10% have to swing from voting centre-right Conservative in 2015 to barking-mad tax-and-squander neutralist unlimited-immigration IRA-and-Hamas-hugging Labour in 2020, using arguments furnished by Corbyn, who hates them.

This can only end one way. Labour shills don't want to hear it, but that's how it is. The boundary corrections will end 20 years of Labour gerrymandering and cost them 20 seats, so on 2015's performance they'll be on 212. But 2015 was with Miliband's comparatively impressive poll of 31%. Knock that back to say 26% and they'll be down to 190 or so core seats, many of which as I reason above will have a loony MP. So for the post-GE leadership contest (assuming Corbyn steps down - he may not), there will be no problem for the loonies to get together the 25 to 30 MPs required to nominate a loony candidate. Probably the sensibles will be able to get a candidate on the ballot too, but those candidates will then face the same party electorate that elected Jezza. The sensible candidate will then be humiliatingly crushed, like Jones, Burnham, Cooper, and that other one (* edit: Kendal) all were.

The only way the sensible candidate could win is if more than one loony candidate stood, splitting the loony vote. But that's not likely. If there's one thing Labour does really well, it's rigging elections. Whether it's by trade union block votes, postal voting fraud, gerrymandering the boundaries or whatever, the loonies will not miss a trick.