Premium Bonds - what's wrong ?

yedmans

I bought £10,000 worth of Premium Bonds in October 2014. I won £25 in February 2015 and have won absolutely nothing since. I think that is 9 monthly draws without winning a thing.


Assuming my bad luck continues for September & October that means my ROI will be 0.25%. Is it
possible that somehow my numbers have not been entered into the draws ??


Would love to hear from anybody in the know !

HappyMJ

The odds of winning £25 in any one month are 1 in 26,000.

You're not entered for the month in which you deposit so you would have been included in the November draw as the first draw.

There's been therefore 9 draws since investment so your odds are 90,000 in 26,000 so you should have won 3 or 4 times. Variance however is the key. You still have a very high chance of winning 2 or 5 times and a fair chance of winning 1 or 6 times.

So...quite normal.

IanManc

HappyMJ wrote: »

The odds of winning £25 in any one month are 1 in 26,000.

You're not entered for the month in which you deposit so you would have been included in the November draw as the first draw.

There's been therefore 9 draws since investment so your odds are 90,000 in 26,000 so you should have won 3 or 4 times. Variance however is the key. You still have a very high chance of winning 2 or 5 times and a fair chance of winning 1 or 6 times.

So...quite normal.

You bought the bonds in October 2014. Premium bonds have to be held for a full month before they are entered in the draw, so bonds bought in October 2014 would have been included for the first time in the December 2014 draw.

HappyMJ

IanManc wrote: »

You bought the bonds in October 2014. Premium bonds have to be held for a full month before they are entered in the draw, so bonds bought in October 2014 would have been included for the first time in the December 2014 draw.

Sorry technicality..I meant the draw for the bonds held throughout the month of November. You're correct though the draw is on the 1st December.

There's still 9 draws. Last one being 1st August for the bonds held for the full month of July 2015.

Archi_Bald

The average return is 1.35% or thereabouts, and wins are not guaranteed. As there are a significant number of high 'winners' each months, it is obvious that some people will get nothing for many moons, or ever. If your return is below the average, you have just been less lucky than the average bond holder, but you will be in very good company.

redux

If you toss a coin and get heads 8 times in a row, the chance at the start of that happening was 1 in 256, but the odds are still 50-50 for the next toss.

We were rescanned at the Sainsburys fast track till 3 times in 8 weeks. One of the staff said ask about this at the customer service desk, as it should not happen. I didn't bother as I assume it is purely random.

dunstonh

You are in a lottery. Sometimes you win. Sometimes you lose. You have had a unlucky spell.

It is one of the reasons why Premium bonds are a waste of money for most people.

nearlyrich

I have some premium bonds I pay £100 per month in and now have about £2500 ( started with initial £1000) I won £25 the first draw I was in and that's it. DH nearly always wins, at least once per month he has more invested than I do.

atush

Move the money to an interest paying current acct

bigfreddiel

We 'win' every month when averaged out. fj

coyrls

What's wrong? Nothing's wrong, that's the way they work.