What will happen when interest rates rise?

IveSeenTheLight

Generali wrote: »

As with monthly changes in house prices, monthly changes in unemployment are just noise:

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/dcp171778_412021.pdf



The ONS tells us to look at longer term trends with (un)employment. "What's the trend Gen?" I hear you cry.

Very good points, but I do think that you need to also consider the working population over the same period.

To show that employment (hours worked) has increased by 30% over the last 20 odd years, really needs to consider the expansion of the available working hours over the same period.

Very roughly, it appears the population has grown by 10 million over the same period.

Jonbvn

caronoel wrote: »

Great news!!

Pushes the chance of interest rate rises even further into the distance.

I dont think we will see rates rise until 2017.

That and what looks like currency wars on the horizon, what price a rate rise in the short term?

MFW_ASAP

We've been discussing when rates will rise from 0.5% for years and my guess is that we'll continue to do so for years to come. I've just over three years to go on my current mortgage deal. I suspect I'll be OK to get a cheap 10 year fix rate once that time has expired.

Generali

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

Very good points, but I do think that you need to also consider the working population over the same period.

To show that employment (hours worked) has increased by 30% over the last 20 odd years, really needs to consider the expansion of the available working hours over the same period.

Very roughly, it appears the population has grown by 10 million over the same period.

Employment has gone up by ~5 million people since 1993 but then the number of children will have risen (AIUI, the UK is experiencing something of a baby boom) and the number of retired people will have risen (start of the baby boomers retiring plus better healthcare).

The fact remains that a rise of 25,000 in unemployment over the quarter is statistically insignificant as the ONS very helpfully point out and the newspapers very unhelpfully ignore.

Journalists put too much store by numbers they don't really understand. Do they really imagine that someone goes round counting up all the unemployed people once a month? It's obviously a survey and all surveys have a margin of error.

As my stats teacher used to tell us, imagine a bunch of aliens land in ten million years at the site of a plane crash and find a fossilised human. They would have a sample of 1 and conclude that all humans had one leg and one arm.

ukcarper

Are any of you using new site if so has Gens post (122) been cut off.

Generali

ukcarper wrote: »

Are any of you using new site if so has Gens post (122) been cut off.

I'm using old site as I throw a temper tantrum each time they change anything. All change is bad obvs.

Isn't post 122 IHSTL's not mine??

ukcarper

Generali wrote: »

I'm using old site as I throw a temper tantrum each time they change anything. All change is bad obvs.

Isn't post 122 IHSTL's not mine??

Your right but it's your post qouted that's causing problem it's fine on old site, any large image seems to cause problem.

IveSeenTheLight

Generali wrote: »

I'm using old site as I throw a temper tantrum each time they change anything. All change is bad obvs.

Isn't post 122 IHSTL's not mine??

I must be using the old site as well.
No issues I see.

padington

China have devalued again third day in a row !

Fed raising rates now ? :rotfl:

Thrugelmir

padington wrote: »

China have devalued again third day in a row !

Fed raising rates now ? :rotfl:

Like the UK a small rate rise will go unnoticed.