What will happen when interest rates rise?

Thrugelmir

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Seems unemployment is up official figures show today.

Lots of large job losses announced going forward too recently. May keep the lid on pay increases. For unskilled and low skilled work in particular.

Graham_Devon

CLAPTON wrote: »

you 100% agreed with me (but were too shy to actually say so), but you pointed out (as you are always keen to find a negative) that the rate of increase was falling.

If you were genuinely stating in such a simplistic manner that it's "good to see" wages rising regardless of the direction of growth then I have you mistaken.

The flip side to this though is that so long as you see wage inflation as apposed to deflation, it will always be "good to see".

I don't believe that was your point at all, as it seems rather absurd. When was the last time we saw yearly figures showing wage deflation?

You've tied yourself up in knots now.

wotsthat

Graham_Devon wrote: »

When was the last time we saw yearly figures showing wage deflation?

There has been wage deflation every year since 2008.

Looks like this year might be the first time we see wages ahead of inflation since 2007.

caronoel

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Seems unemployment is up official figures show today.

Great news!!

Pushes the chance of interest rate rises even further into the distance.

I dont think we will see rates rise until 2017.

CLAPTON

Graham_Devon wrote: »

If you were genuinely stating in such a simplistic manner that it's "good to see" wages rising regardless of the direction of growth then I have you mistaken.


.

it would be easier to discuss if you distinguished between 'direction of growth' (which is positive and not falling)

and the change in the 'rate of growth' which is negative (i.e wages are growing but as a lower rate than previously).

midnight_child

MFW_ASAP wrote: »

The rate rise will be so far off that I doubt people will remember this conversation. For future discussions though, you might want to drop the pretense that you're 'neutral' and just interested in a balance of opions and just declare yourself as a crasher and therefore only interested in viewpoints that match and support your own. It's much less disngenuous.

Just some friendly advice, take it or leave it.

I have already bought a house, and I don't have any plans to move, so the direction of house prices really does not concern me at this point in time. While I view it as a place to live rather than "part of my portfolio", If anything I would want the value of my property to increase, giving me a larger deposit should I ever choose to upgrade.


I have nothing to gain from house price crash, except perhaps if its a very severe crash...........negative equity.

Liverlad67

It may never happen but imagine double digit interest like the 90's recessions when people were just handing the keys back and walking away. No tax credits or lenient banks back then. I remember when the UK left the erm precursor of the euro because interest rates where rising hourly not yearly. During the news whilst lamont was flapping they went up twice in a hour. Lamont was the chancellor at the time.

Generali

As with monthly changes in house prices, monthly changes in unemployment are just noise:

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/dcp171778_412021.pdf

For example, for April to June 2015, the estimated change in the number of unemployed people since January to March 2015 was an increase of 25,000, with a 95% confidence interval of +/- 81,000. This means that we can be 95% certain the actual change in unemployment was somewhere between an increase of 106,000 and a fall of 56,000, with the best estimate being an increase of 25,000.

As the estimated increase in unemployment of 25,000 is smaller than the confidence interval of 81,000, the estimated increase in unemployment is said to be “not statistically significant”.

The ONS tells us to look at longer term trends with (un)employment. "What's the trend Gen?" I hear you cry.

cells

The worlds end will be near


seriously that would cause high rates....as it did in the years of rhe cold war

padington

Shouldn't those that say it's a race to the currency bottom be predicting the end of interest rates ?