What will happen when interest rates rise?

lippy1923

wymondham wrote: »

Interesting statistic in here - more than 1 million homeowners have never known a rate rise!! Given people usually prepare for the expected, then this could be a sizeable amount of people who didn't plan for a rise...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-33786528

I am one of those million homeowners. Brought early 2010 so have only known BOE 0.5%

But just because I have never known rate rises doesn't mean I haven't planned for or expected a rate rise some time during my mortgage life. In fact quite the opposite.
It has suited me nicely as only ever had rates of 2-3%ish which has helped me save and OP my mortgage from day 1 while still enjoying annual holidays and life in general.

I know that good things don't last so making the most of the lower rates while I can.

When they do rise I will grumble for about 2 seconds and then get over it.

CLAPTON

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Seems unemployment is up official figures show today.

we really should call you good news graham

is the unemployment figure the year on year figure or simply a temporary blip?


good to see average weekly wages are rising


(Graham will doubtless post that a person he knows down the road has just had a pay cut/made redundant or some sad tale........)

mayonnaise

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Seems unemployment is up official figures show today.

I can almost hear the corks popping in Casa Devon.

wotsthat

wymondham wrote: »

Yes, but I wonder how many of this 1m+ people ever even thought rates could go up?

About 14? It's been somewhat difficult to avoid the media speculation about rate rises over the last few years.

Graham_Devon

CLAPTON wrote: »

we really should call you good news graham

Just reporting a fact.

No point going around saying unemployment is falling, when it isn't.

It's not just this quarter either. It rose last quarter too.

If I were going around saying unemployment were rising to suit my post when it wasn't and hadn't been I'm sure you would correct me.

No need to get all stupid about it. It's simply a statement of fact.#

What's rather striking about the figures is that the London jobless count is up 6.7%.

CLAPTON wrote: »

good to see average weekly wages are rising


(Graham will doubtless post that a person he knows down the road has just had a pay cut/made redundant or some sad tale........)

Nah, I won't post that. I thought if I posted that average earnings growth actually fell in June at the same time as posting the unemployment data you'd have a meltdown.

But you had one anyway. So yer, average earnings are down in June, falling to 1.9%.

wotsthat

Unemployment down - bad news - it's all those zero hour contracts, the underemployed, etc.

Unemployment up - bad news - no further analysis required.

After two years of that and now an increase in the numbers there can't be anyone left with a full time job.

CLAPTON

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Just reporting a fact.

No point going around saying unemployment is falling, when it isn't.

It's not just this quarter either. It rose last quarter too.

If I were going around saying unemployment were rising to suit my post when it wasn't and hadn't been I'm sure you would correct me.

No need to get all stupid about it. It's simply a statement of fact.#

What's rather striking about the figures is that the London jobless count is up 6.7%.



Nah, I won't post that. I thought if I posted that average earnings growth actually fell in June at the same time as posting the unemployment data you'd have a meltdown.

But you had one anyway. So yer, average earnings are down in June, falling to 1.9%.

average earnings June 2014 were 478
average earnings June 2015 were 488
change increase of £10

average earning May 2014 were 479
average earning May 2015 were 492
change increase of £13



of course there is an issue about what 'fall' means and indeed what 'fool' means too.


comparing month on month and not seasonally adjusting can mislead the reader.

comparing the 'rate' of something on a month by month basis can mislead too.

a nice example is that prices (inflation) drop virtually every July: think about it

Graham_Devon

CLAPTON wrote: »

average earnings June 2014 were 478
average earnings June 2015 were 488
change increase of £10

average earning May 2014 were 479
average earning May 2015 were 492
change increase of £13



of course there is an issue about what 'fall' means and indeed what 'fool' means too.


comparing month on month and not seasonally adjusting can mislead the reader.

comparing the 'rate' of something on a month by month basis can mislead too.

a nice example is that prices (inflation) drop virtually every July: think about it

I don't disagree with the yearly figures.

But in simply showing a different set of statistics to completely ignore another set you are at risk of confirmation bias.

Has monthly pay gowth fallen back? Yes. That's a simple fact.

Has quarterly pay growth fallen back? Yes. That's a simple fact.

Throwing up other longer range statistics while throwing in "fool" lines don't change that.

MFW_ASAP

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Just reporting a fact.

No point going around saying unemployment is falling, when it isn't.

It's not just this quarter either. It rose last quarter too.

If I were going around saying unemployment were rising to suit my post when it wasn't and hadn't been I'm sure you would correct me.

No need to get all stupid about it. It's simply a statement of fact.#

Yet you never seem to 'report' facts when they're positive.

Seriously though GD, I'm convinced you're single and probably lonely (given that you're always on here). Have you not considered that your complete and absolute negativity is the reason why you're on your own?

Buck up, start enjoying life, join a gym or a theatre group, get out there and meet real people. This is no life mate.

CLAPTON

Graham_Devon wrote: »

I don't disagree with the yearly figures.

But in simply showing a different set of statistics to completely ignore another set you are at risk of confirmation bias.

Has monthly pay gowth fallen back? Yes. That's a simple fact.

Has quarterly pay growth fallen back? Yes. That's a simple fact.

Throwing up other longer range statistics while throwing in "fool" lines don't change that.

I posted about wages increasing

good to see average weekly wages are rising

you 100% agreed with me (but were too shy to actually say so), but you pointed out (as you are always keen to find a negative) that the rate of increase was falling.

given the seasonal nature of employment, prices, wages and production of goods and services, 12 month comparisons aren't really 'long' range statistics.