Green, ethical, energy issues in the news

Martyn1981

Nice uptick for RE this Q3 v's last year, but some is due to the better wind this year (v's last).

EU renewables generation hits new high in Q3

Power generation from renewable sources hit a new high in the third quarter of 2023, according to a new report from energy data analyst EnAppSys.

It showed that renewable power generation in the quarter increased by 12% compared to Q3 2022, marking the highest growth rate for any third quarter so far.

Renewables (including waste) were the biggest contributor to the European power mix in Q3 2023, producing 47.4% of total output.

Hydro (16.4%), wind (15.2%) and solar (11.9%) were the main drivers of renewable generation during the quarter.

zeupater

Martyn1981 said:

Thought this was going to be heavy, but actually a fun read.

Starts off re-affirming a recent suggestion that China may have hit peak oil. It also mentions in the article that the US and Europe already have, for road transport, which surprised me:

Given that 45% of every barrel of oil turns into gasoline, that means China has reached peak petroleum demand. China has an oil demand of approaching 13 million barrels per day, compared to USA’s 20 million and Europe’s 19 million. Between these economies, they represent a full half of global oil demand. Bloomberg has pointed out that peak gasoline and diesel demand has already arrived in the USA and Europe.

....

Hi

Can't really see how anyone should really be surprised that fossil fuel consumption is falling considering  .... 

• Total addressable vehicle market for Europe has stagnated & is now trending downwards.
• The average fuel efficiency for ICE vehicles is improving, including aid from hybrid KERS.
  
• Relative new vehicle sales market share between EVs & ICEs is rapidly swinging towards EVs.
• EV sales as a percentage of total is not representative of annual miles per new vehicle as a high proportion of those EVs are destined for high mileage business purposes ... 
• Across Europe the average EV (any age) covers more miles than the average ICE vehicle (RAC report 2021)
• Economic growth within Europe has lagged behind the growth curve of EVs for quite some time
  

... add the compound effect of all of this and I'd have been logically surprised if road transport fuel oil demand wasn't falling in Europe ...

HTH - Z   ....

michaels

zeupater said:

Martyn1981 said:

Thought this was going to be heavy, but actually a fun read.

Starts off re-affirming a recent suggestion that China may have hit peak oil. It also mentions in the article that the US and Europe already have, for road transport, which surprised me:

Given that 45% of every barrel of oil turns into gasoline, that means China has reached peak petroleum demand. China has an oil demand of approaching 13 million barrels per day, compared to USA’s 20 million and Europe’s 19 million. Between these economies, they represent a full half of global oil demand. Bloomberg has pointed out that peak gasoline and diesel demand has already arrived in the USA and Europe.

....

Hi

Can't really see how anyone should really be surprised that fossil fuel consumption is falling considering  .... 

• Total addressable vehicle market for Europe has stagnated & is now trending downwards.
• The average fuel efficiency for ICE vehicles is improving, including aid from hybrid KERS.
  
• Relative new vehicle sales market share between EVs & ICEs is rapidly swinging towards EVs.
• EV sales as a percentage of total is not representative of annual miles per new vehicle as a high proportion of those EVs are destined for high mileage business purposes ... 
• Across Europe the average EV (any age) covers more miles than the average ICE vehicle (RAC report 2021)
• Economic growth within Europe has lagged behind the growth curve of EVs for quite some time
  

... add the compound effect of all of this and I'd have been logically surprised if road transport fuel oil demand wasn't falling in Europe ...

HTH - Z   ....

Against all that we have the rise of the SUV and the death of diesel, both of which will be increasing fossil fuel demand for the same miles

Martyn1981

zeupater said:

Martyn1981 said:

Thought this was going to be heavy, but actually a fun read.

Starts off re-affirming a recent suggestion that China may have hit peak oil. It also mentions in the article that the US and Europe already have, for road transport, which surprised me:

Given that 45% of every barrel of oil turns into gasoline, that means China has reached peak petroleum demand. China has an oil demand of approaching 13 million barrels per day, compared to USA’s 20 million and Europe’s 19 million. Between these economies, they represent a full half of global oil demand. Bloomberg has pointed out that peak gasoline and diesel demand has already arrived in the USA and Europe.

....

Hi

Can't really see how anyone should really be surprised that fossil fuel consumption is falling considering  .... 

• Total addressable vehicle market for Europe has stagnated & is now trending downwards.
• The average fuel efficiency for ICE vehicles is improving, including aid from hybrid KERS.
  
• Relative new vehicle sales market share between EVs & ICEs is rapidly swinging towards EVs.
• EV sales as a percentage of total is not representative of annual miles per new vehicle as a high proportion of those EVs are destined for high mileage business purposes ... 
• Across Europe the average EV (any age) covers more miles than the average ICE vehicle (RAC report 2021)
• Economic growth within Europe has lagged behind the growth curve of EVs for quite some time
  

... add the compound effect of all of this and I'd have been logically surprised if road transport fuel oil demand wasn't falling in Europe ...

HTH - Z   ....

Well ...... it's obvious now that you've pointed it out! 

Got to put my hands up, and admit I'd missed the peak point. I realised we had to be close, but the lower ICEV sales have to be compared to ~15yrs ago, for the fleet switch, and the trend for heavier, larger and less fuel efficinet vehicles.

But that said, I think I was thinking more on a world basis, rather than the more stable UK fleet sales, so, yep, missed it completely. But I'll pass the buck (cheekily) and say I hadn't seen it mentioned before, which is annoying, as it's truly great news.



Big digression, but what are your thoughts on the EU carbon pricing? This article contains an example, simply to help comprehension, but it srikes me, that if the externalities of FF's are priced in, then the economic benefits of RE, BEV's, HP's even storage, get amplified.

EU’s Guidance For Carbon Price Through 2050 Is Staggering

Let’s take a hypothetical 1 GW capacity wind farm and a hypothetical 1 GW capacity natural gas plant and play them out through 2050. Let’s run them at the same capacity factor of 40%, because we sure aren’t going to be running gas plants 24/7/365 if we actually want to solve climate change, so we’re going to run them only enough to keep the lights on and the homes warm. Let’s assume the wind farms get $50 per MWh on average, a reasonable wholesale electricity price that’s below the average wind and solar farms get by leaning into maximizing profits. Probably low for the gas plant which will be there for dead zones where the price of wholesale electricity shoots up, so let’s give it $100 per MWh.

They’ll each produce 3,500 GWh over each year. The wind farm’s operations are carbon-free, but it has embodied carbon in the steel, concrete, and composites, so it’s going to be producing about 8 tons of CO2e per GWh of electricity. Meanwhile, between upstream methane emissions (that’s at the low end of emissions, by the way) and the CO2 from burning the natural gas, the gas plant is going to be producing 600 tons of CO2e per GWh. The EU is only putting methane into the carbon price in 2026, but for the purposes of this assessment, I’ll price it immediately.

Let’s say that they are built in 2024 and both become active at the beginning of 2025. Also, that they will pay for the CO2e emissions against MWh of production as opposed to in the year of construction (a bit flakey, but it’s for illustrative purposes).

Projection of Wind Farm vs Natural Gas with EU carbon price budget numbers

For the purpose of this projection I’ve assumed 4% increases in revenue every year so they stay stable, with only the carbon price increasing in cost over time. This also excludes everything except revenue and carbon price, while there are more construction and operational costs to consider.

Sharp eyes will notice that the gas plant makes a bit of money in 2025, but then becomes increasingly underwater with the passage of time. Meanwhile, because wind energy emits no CO2e during operations, but is only paying back the embodied carbon debt, it’s vastly more profitable immediately and its profits only slightly diminish.

Martyn1981

The Aussies really like their big batts.

If they can store excess rooftop solar, then that's a biggie given the huge generation at times.

1.2GW/2.4GWh ‘Melbourne Renewable Energy Hub’ BESS gets government approvals

The Australian government has granted approvals to the ‘Melbourne Renewable Energy Hub’ (MREH), a 1,200MW/2.4GWh two-hour duration battery energy storage system (BESS) in the state of Victoria.

MREH is owned and developed by Singapore-headquartered renewables investor and developer Equis, in partnership with Australian renewables engineering, design and construction group Syncline Energy. Equis said that the project will be the largest BESS in the Asia-Pacific region.

The environmental approvals were announced this week by Minister for the Environment and Water, Tanya Plibersek. She said: “We know renewable energy is cheaper, cleaner, and crucial to helping us cut emissions and reach our goal of net zero by 2050. Projects like this will help us transform our energy system and build it for the future.”

The project will be connected to the National Electricity Market (NEM) and will act as a repository for solar, wind and hydro energy from across rural Victoria, as well as holding excess power generated from rooftop solar installations to flow into the transmission grid. The MREH will also include a 12.5MW co-located solar installation.

Exiled_Tyke

Some more good wind news. Despite views of some naysayers  and of course recent setbacks with cfds the march of wind continues.  Now all we need is onshore to be freed up as well.   

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-67126815

Martyn1981

Green Mountain Power have (I think) been mentioned before, several years ago - they have a scheme to rollout home battery storage, to help reduce loads on the grid, and maximise cheaper RE. I believe they operate them collectively as a VPP, virtual power plant.

But now they've gone nuclear ...... sorry, the storage nuclear option, and are planning to put batteries in every customers house.

Green Mountain Power Takes A Bold Step Toward Energy Resiliency

Green Mountain Power has just filed a proposal with the state of Vermont that it says could eliminate power outages for all 270,000 of its customers by 2030. The plan is to put many of its power lines underground where they are safe from falling trees and branches, strengthen the lines that have to remain above ground so they can better resist powerful winds and heavier snowfalls, and install a residential storage battery in the home of every residential customer.

Martyn1981

Another great vid from 'Engineering with Rosie'. In this one, she explains how the state of South Australia is moving quickly to RE leccy, but having to do it 'the hard way'. That means mainly using variable RE, like wind and solar, as they don't have the hydro resources of some of the RE champs, like Norway, Sweden etc..

I though it was reasonably comparable to the UK situation, only swopping wind and PV around, as our wind resources are larger and 'better' than our PV potential. She also talks about interconnectors, and storage, and how said storage can be used now for grid frequency support, something done traditionally by the massive inertia of the steam turbines in a coal, gas or nuclear powerstation.

Can You Run a Grid on 100% Wind + Solar? South Australia Shows Us How

Welcome to South Australia, a place where the winds of change are quite literal and the sun doesn’t just warm our homes but also powers them. I recorded this video in beautiful Adelaide when I visited recently, because South Australia is leading the world in several key aspects of the energy transition. South Australia has gone from a coal powered electricity grid with virtually no renewables in 2008 to 70% renewables with zero coal power plants today, a mere 15 years later. And, they’ve done it the hard way, with none of the "easy" clean energy sources (hydro, geothermal, nuclear). They've done it with variable renewables wind and solar.

If you look at any of the large net zero scenarios you will see that the bulk of the future world’s electricity generation is expected to come from wind and solar. It is simply not possible to expand hydro everywhere so that each country can follow Iceland or Norway’s lead. Geothermal, biomass and nuclear each have their own issues with location, scalability and cost standing in their way. So the challenges that South Australia is overcoming as it pushes towards 100% renewable electricity are really blazing a trail that other countries are going to end up following.

So, what does it mean to operate an energy grid dominated by variable renewables and with minimal connections to other grids? What are the challenges and the innovations emerging from such a unique energy ecosystem? Today, we will navigate through these nuances, unravel the intricacies of South Australia’s energy transition, and explore how this region is setting precedents and what it implies for the global energy narrative. Let’s take a look in depth, starting with how South Australia has gotten to where it is today.

Exiled_Tyke

Martyn1981 said:

Another great vid from 'Engineering with Rosie'. In this one, she explains how the state of South Australia is moving quickly to RE leccy, but having to do it 'the hard way'. That means mainly using variable RE, like wind and solar, as they don't have the hydro resources of some of the RE champs, like Norway, Sweden etc..

I though it was reasonably comparable to the UK situation, only swopping wind and PV around, as our wind resources are larger and 'better' than our PV potential. She also talks about interconnectors, and storage, and how said storage can be used now for grid frequency support, something done traditionally by the massive inertia of the steam turbines in a coal, gas or nuclear powerstation.

Can You Run a Grid on 100% Wind + Solar? South Australia Shows Us How

Welcome to South Australia, a place where the winds of change are quite literal and the sun doesn’t just warm our homes but also powers them. I recorded this video in beautiful Adelaide when I visited recently, because South Australia is leading the world in several key aspects of the energy transition. South Australia has gone from a coal powered electricity grid with virtually no renewables in 2008 to 70% renewables with zero coal power plants today, a mere 15 years later. And, they’ve done it the hard way, with none of the "easy" clean energy sources (hydro, geothermal, nuclear). They've done it with variable renewables wind and solar.

If you look at any of the large net zero scenarios you will see that the bulk of the future world’s electricity generation is expected to come from wind and solar. It is simply not possible to expand hydro everywhere so that each country can follow Iceland or Norway’s lead. Geothermal, biomass and nuclear each have their own issues with location, scalability and cost standing in their way. So the challenges that South Australia is overcoming as it pushes towards 100% renewable electricity are really blazing a trail that other countries are going to end up following.

So, what does it mean to operate an energy grid dominated by variable renewables and with minimal connections to other grids? What are the challenges and the innovations emerging from such a unique energy ecosystem? Today, we will navigate through these nuances, unravel the intricacies of South Australia’s energy transition, and explore how this region is setting precedents and what it implies for the global energy narrative. Let’s take a look in depth, starting with how South Australia has gotten to where it is today.

I look forward to looking at this when I have a moment.  But it looks like brilliant news. The anti-RE crowd have been claiming for years that the variability of RE can't be accommodated and we'll always need Fosil Fuels (my abbreviations was not appreciated by the algorithm!) to smooth out.  If South Australia is now claiming it can be done then that should create a huge incentive for others to follow the precedent. If only the UK government would step up and try to lead on this stuff. 

Martyn1981

Exiled_Tyke said:

Martyn1981 said:

Another great vid from 'Engineering with Rosie'. In this one, she explains how the state of South Australia is moving quickly to RE leccy, but having to do it 'the hard way'. That means mainly using variable RE, like wind and solar, as they don't have the hydro resources of some of the RE champs, like Norway, Sweden etc..

I though it was reasonably comparable to the UK situation, only swopping wind and PV around, as our wind resources are larger and 'better' than our PV potential. She also talks about interconnectors, and storage, and how said storage can be used now for grid frequency support, something done traditionally by the massive inertia of the steam turbines in a coal, gas or nuclear powerstation.

Can You Run a Grid on 100% Wind + Solar? South Australia Shows Us How

Welcome to South Australia, a place where the winds of change are quite literal and the sun doesn’t just warm our homes but also powers them. I recorded this video in beautiful Adelaide when I visited recently, because South Australia is leading the world in several key aspects of the energy transition. South Australia has gone from a coal powered electricity grid with virtually no renewables in 2008 to 70% renewables with zero coal power plants today, a mere 15 years later. And, they’ve done it the hard way, with none of the "easy" clean energy sources (hydro, geothermal, nuclear). They've done it with variable renewables wind and solar.

If you look at any of the large net zero scenarios you will see that the bulk of the future world’s electricity generation is expected to come from wind and solar. It is simply not possible to expand hydro everywhere so that each country can follow Iceland or Norway’s lead. Geothermal, biomass and nuclear each have their own issues with location, scalability and cost standing in their way. So the challenges that South Australia is overcoming as it pushes towards 100% renewable electricity are really blazing a trail that other countries are going to end up following.

So, what does it mean to operate an energy grid dominated by variable renewables and with minimal connections to other grids? What are the challenges and the innovations emerging from such a unique energy ecosystem? Today, we will navigate through these nuances, unravel the intricacies of South Australia’s energy transition, and explore how this region is setting precedents and what it implies for the global energy narrative. Let’s take a look in depth, starting with how South Australia has gotten to where it is today.

I look forward to looking at this when I have a moment.  But it looks like brilliant news. The anti-RE crowd have been claiming for years that the variability of RE can't be accommodated and we'll always need !!!!!! to smooth out.  If South Australia is now claiming it can be done then that should create a huge incentive for others to follow the precedent. If only the UK government would step up and try to lead on this stuff. 

Yep, and not just SA, there have been those incredibly detailed reports/studies from Stanford University for years, looking at a 100% RE world using WWS (wind, water and solar) as the main constituents.

The vid also mentions using the interconnectors to sell excess RE to other Australian states, which again made me think of the UK, where we will hopefully become a net exporter of leccy, eventually, thanks to our vast off-shore wind potential.