Green, ethical, energy issues in the news

Martyn1981

Nat Grid announce new record for low carbon intensity - 27g/kWh 2pm 18th Sept.

GB achieves new low carbon record

National Grid ESO (ESO) has confirmed that Great Britain achieved a new low carbon intensity record of 27g/kWh on Monday (18 September).

This beat the previous record of 33g/kWh which was set on 10 April 2023.

Monday also saw wind generate the majority of Britain’s energy at 48%, followed by gas which only generated 14.5%.

zeupater

Grumpy_chap said:

I am not sure whether the BBC is reporting real news here:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-66857551

Maybe it is just political posturing via think tank groups to test the water and then they'll come back in to say they are not changing anything.
An area to keep an eye on I suppose.

Hi

It's probably a smidgeon of reality starting to sink in as a number of pressing serious issues have evolved since 2015, some even having meddling government fingerprints all over them so they can't seriously deny culpability ... 

Anyway, there are at a couple of points that I agree with ...

The prime minister said: "For too many years politicians in governments of all stripes have not been honest about costs and trade-offs. Instead they have taken the easy way out, saying we can have it all.

"This realism doesn't mean losing our ambition or abandoning our commitments. Far from it.

... and other's that are likely fundamentally flawed, for example, the predicted current path for future emissions falls into the 'tiny brain syndrome' of those that don't understand the difference between exponential & linear growth ...

... what on earth would make someone think and publish predictions that the exponential growth in EV adoption would effectively stop and the market penetration remain at 2022 levels until ~2040, it's utter nonsense being published by a government department to promote it's own existence through fear ... over that the BBC have taken the dangled bait, hook-line-and-sinker, and run with it without performing any form of logical examination .... even the title and basis of the chart is misleading because it needs to be a measure of net emissions, as opposed to total emissions, so where's the net balancing influence or the ability to lead to a net negative position ? .. ah, I see, it's not, so yet another example of modelling employing the GIGO (Garbage In, Garbage Out) methodology, so it's virtually worthless ...

This approach does nothing to reinforce trust in the way that the Net Zero project is being administered, on the contraty, it does highlight the level to which it's effectively being propagandised ..

HTH - Z (I'm doing my bit whilst they do little but talk!! ... ) 

michaels

I guess the only good thing about today's announcements is that they will not survive the change of govt next year and even if they did, the market will determine what happens, not King Canute.

It is odd - there is almost nothing in Labour's policies that I support but based on today I am no longer so sad that they will be in power next year.

Grumpy_chap

They are an odd batch of announcements, seemingly coming from nowhere and not obviously vote winners.

Considering the additional 5-years for ICE cars, the market may well make that moot if the proportion of ICE cars falls far enough fast enough, the motive to continue marketing ICE cars may be very low by 2030.  For the long term, one would have though the Government would seek to drive the country to the forefront of new technology and ensure we are the leaders, as opposed to preserving the legacy of an industry that will cease however you look at it.  Maybe, come 2050, we will have the few specialist ICE mechanics remaining in the very small global market.

zeupater

Grumpy_chap said:

They are an odd batch of announcements, seemingly coming from nowhere and not obviously vote winners.

Considering the additional 5-years for ICE cars, the market may well make that moot if the proportion of ICE cars falls far enough fast enough, the motive to continue marketing ICE cars may be very low by 2030.  For the long term, one would have though the Government would seek to drive the country to the forefront of new technology and ensure we are the leaders, as opposed to preserving the legacy of an industry that will cease however you look at it.  Maybe, come 2050, we will have the few specialist ICE mechanics remaining in the very small global market.

Hi

The issue being missed is that the tipping point has effectively been reached .... anyone remember the eco doom-mongers reaction to the UK withdrawing subsidies for EV purchases, "woe is me, the end is nigh & damn the Tories, they're all in cahoots with the oil barons" comes to mind. What was the effect on EV demand, well, it continued to increase - exponentially at that, but is that what the BBC article says or shows in their selected charts? - no, it effective shows linear growth in the automotive fleet over ~30 years, so multiple generations of fleet replacement with little effect on overall emissions which, logic would conclude, effectively means that current levels of EV penetration in the automotive market has been used as a constant, not an evolving position ....

Consumers aren't fools, the more EVs that they see on the road, the longer they've been there and the cheaper those vehicles become, the more the level of acceptance .... effectively anything like an additional 5 years extension to the 2030 ICE new sales cutoff makes little difference when it's already looking like the rate of growth will result in near-total penetration before 2030 anyway ... if the German or any other EU auto-makers have been (and continue to be) slow to react to change then they'll probably further prove Darwin's theory on evolution as others will survive them ....

Think about the situation .... VW & Toyota are the two largest vehicle manufacturing groups, building a combined ~20million units/year, yet are both well behind the curve on EVs on many levels, including build volume, technology and build costs. They both are loosing global market share as competitors grow EV production ... in contrast, Tesla alone have a long standing plan to build annual capacity to ~20million vehicles by 2030 and has, to date, met their growth milestones, despite 'experts' opinions decrying the possibility numerous times, over numerous years ... to achieve this level of sales, guess where Tesla's EV volume is coming from - who'll be the winner & who will seriously suffer? ... currently it's an existential crisis position that can't be ignored by the major automotive players - they thought that they could steer & control the market as has been the case for decades and have played 'Ostrich' for far too long, it's now becoming obvious to them that the strategy was wrong and they're in serious trouble ..... so, is this really the time that they, and the rest of the ICE industry, would consider doing anything but reverse past mistakes & grow their annual EV build share by at least as much as the annual EV% market penetration growth?? ... doesn't that depend on whether they're prepared to invest heavily in the (now) short term, or have a strategy to accept the fate they find themselves in and restructure/retreat into very much smaller niche segments?

In summary, whatever change the government announces, the transport sector alone would negate the quantified predictions made by the BBC, especially the included government 'Net Zero' chart .... 'storm in a teacup' being whipped up on political grounds by factions with alternate political interests comes to mind! 

HTH - Z (Context is key to understanding! -  )  

michaels

zeupater said:

Grumpy_chap said:

They are an odd batch of announcements, seemingly coming from nowhere and not obviously vote winners.

Considering the additional 5-years for ICE cars, the market may well make that moot if the proportion of ICE cars falls far enough fast enough, the motive to continue marketing ICE cars may be very low by 2030.  For the long term, one would have though the Government would seek to drive the country to the forefront of new technology and ensure we are the leaders, as opposed to preserving the legacy of an industry that will cease however you look at it.  Maybe, come 2050, we will have the few specialist ICE mechanics remaining in the very small global market.

Hi

The issue being missed is that the tipping point has effectively been reached .... anyone remember the eco doom-mongers reaction to the UK withdrawing subsidies for EV purchases, "woe is me, the end is nigh & damn the Tories, they're all in cahoots with the oil barons" comes to mind. What was the effect on EV demand, well, it continued to increase - exponentially at that, but is that what the BBC article says or shows in their selected charts? - no, it effective shows linear growth in the automotive fleet over ~30 years, so multiple generations of fleet replacement with little effect on overall emissions which, logic would conclude, effectively means that current levels of EV penetration in the automotive market has been used as a constant, not an evolving position ....

Consumers aren't fools, the more EVs that they see on the road, the longer they've been there and the cheaper those vehicles become, the more the level of acceptance .... effectively anything like an additional 5 years extension to the 2030 ICE new sales cutoff makes little difference when it's already looking like the rate of growth will result in near-total penetration before 2030 anyway ... if the German or any other EU auto-makers have been (and continue to be) slow to react to change then they'll probably further prove Darwin's theory on evolution as others will survive them ....

Think about the situation .... VW & Toyota are the two largest vehicle manufacturing groups, building a combined ~20million units/year, yet are both well behind the curve on EVs on many levels, including build volume, technology and build costs. They both are loosing global market share as competitors grow EV production ... in contrast, Tesla alone have a long standing plan to build annual capacity to ~20million vehicles by 2030 and has, to date, met their growth milestones, despite 'experts' opinions decrying the possibility numerous times, over numerous years ... to achieve this level of sales, guess where Tesla's EV volume is coming from - who'll be the winner & who will seriously suffer? ... currently it's an existential crisis position that can't be ignored by the major automotive players - they thought that they could steer & control the market as has been the case for decades and have played 'Ostrich' for far too long, it's now becoming obvious to them that the strategy was wrong and they're in serious trouble ..... so, is this really the time that they, and the rest of the ICE industry, would consider doing anything but reverse past mistakes & grow their annual EV build share by at least as much as the annual EV% market penetration growth?? ... doesn't that depend on whether they're prepared to invest heavily in the (now) short term, or have a strategy to accept the fate they find themselves in and restructure/retreat into very much smaller niche segments?

In summary, whatever change the government announces, the transport sector alone would negate the quantified predictions made by the BBC, especially the included government 'Net Zero' chart .... 'storm in a teacup' being whipped up on political grounds by factions with alternate political interests comes to mind! 

HTH - Z (Context is key to understanding! -  )  

Is that chart only about road transport emissions?  Perhaps EV savings are being offset but an expected massive increase in aviation?

Martyn1981

Grumpy_chap said:

They are an odd batch of announcements, seemingly coming from nowhere and not obviously vote winners.

Considering the additional 5-years for ICE cars, the market may well make that moot if the proportion of ICE cars falls far enough fast enough, the motive to continue marketing ICE cars may be very low by 2030.  For the long term, one would have though the Government would seek to drive the country to the forefront of new technology and ensure we are the leaders, as opposed to preserving the legacy of an industry that will cease however you look at it.  Maybe, come 2050, we will have the few specialist ICE mechanics remaining in the very small global market.

Same thoughts here, perhaps they are playing into the hands of the highly negative Tory voters, but I'd have thought they would lose support from their more moderate supporters. Can't see any net gain for the party.

Watching and listening to some of the news I'm simply hearing the more uninformed comments - heatpumps don't work, RE is expensive, EV's don't work yet, why should the UK cut our emissions. The announcement seems to suspiciously match the massive amount of negativity in the press, and BTL comments, that has exploded this year.

Heatpumps are rolling out rapidly all over the world, especially Europe ...... excluding the UK.
PEV's will most likely reach 50% of UK new car sales in 2025/26, and demand for an all petrol/diesel powertrain by 2030 will be minimal - plus those desperate for one, would still be able to buy a PHEV till 2035, so totally moot as you suggest.
RE rollout is working fine (worldwide), and costs are still falling*, no need to backtrack, especially when gas prices are so high.
Why would any government/country not want to insulate and improve housing stock asap.

The whole thing seems weird, uneccessary, and lacks any 'wins' (even for votes) as far as I can see. So strange!


*Yes inflationary spikes are driving up CAPEX costs, but that's hitting FF and nuclear generation too, so RE trend lines are still cheaper (comparative to FF), with expected learning curve cost reductions for many more years.

NigeWick

Martyn1981 said:

Heatpumps are rolling out rapidly all over the world, especially Europe ...... excluding the UK.

I'll be after an Octopus Energy Cosey 6 as soon as they're available. They reckon 2.5 months time but I suspect January.

Martyn1981

NigeWick said:

Martyn1981 said:

Heatpumps are rolling out rapidly all over the world, especially Europe ...... excluding the UK.

I'll be after an Octopus Energy Cosey 6 as soon as they're available. They reckon 2.5 months time but I suspect January.

I will have to wait a bit longer:

Hi Martyn,

Thanks so much for putting your name down for an Octopus Energy heat pump - heating that’s more energy efficient, more comfortable and far better for the planet than a boiler powered by fossil fuels.

We can see that your property is based in Cardiff​. We're recruiting engineers as quickly as we can - we'll let you know when we have installers in your area.

Netexporter

Martyn1981 said:

NigeWick said:

Martyn1981 said:

Heatpumps are rolling out rapidly all over the world, especially Europe ...... excluding the UK.

I'll be after an Octopus Energy Cosey 6 as soon as they're available. They reckon 2.5 months time but I suspect January.

I will have to wait a bit longer:

Hi Martyn,

Thanks so much for putting your name down for an Octopus Energy heat pump - heating that’s more energy efficient, more comfortable and far better for the planet than a boiler powered by fossil fuels.

We can see that your property is based in Cardiff​. We're recruiting engineers as quickly as we can - we'll let you know when we have installers in your area.

Yes, same problem here, in Mid Wales. I did eventually get my smart meter, nearly a year after joining Octopus, because the nearest fitters are based in Abertawe/Swansea. Luckily I've a got a woodburner to keep me warm in the meanwhile.