Green, ethical, energy issues in the news

michaels

Exiled_Tyke said:

Let's hope there's a big enough storm to get onshore wind finally moving this time...but I'm not holding my breath. 

I saw what you did there

Martyn1981

Bit of sad news, with a terrible bit of irony. But one of the large off shore wind contracts issued in the last CfD auction, has been pulled due to the rapid rise in costs, as a result of the rising gas price.

It's almost as if FF's and European wars aren't a good thing!

There are suggestions that contract rates should be revised upwards, as prices are still so much lower than gas generation rates. The CfD's are index linked, but I assume this is one (of the many) industries, where the impact is greater, than that on inflation in general.

Obviously, things will improve as we slowly work our way through the gas price spike, and find ways to reduce the impact. But if methods of reducing that demand, fall due to gas price impacts, then irony strikes again.

Giant windfarm off Norfolk coast halted due to spiralling costs

The government’s green energy ambitions have been dealt a blow after plans for a giant offshore windfarm off the Norfolk coast ground to a halt due to spiralling supply chain costs and rising interest rates.

The Swedish energy giant Vattenfall said it would stop work on the multibillion pound Norfolk Boreas windfarm, designed to power the equivalent of 1.5m British homes, because it was no longer profitable.

The company said costs had climbed by 40% due to a rise in global gas prices which have fed through to the cost of manufacturing, putting “significant pressure on all new offshore wind projects”.

“It simply doesn’t make sense to continue this project,” said Anna Borg, Vattenfall’s chief executive. “Higher inflation and capital costs are affecting the entire energy sector, but the geopolitical situation has made offshore wind and its supply chain particularly vulnerable.”

michaels

Nice little one way bet for the supplier there.  I wonder if they could lock in a profit by taking a position in the markets with the 'free' option they were granted via the CfD providing a hedge?

silverwhistle

I can be as cynical as the best of them, but when they priced their bid at £35.?? per MWh it wouldn't have taken into account subsequent events so I have a degree of sympathy.

Who was the underbidder and by how much? Perhaps they may want to take the scheme on?

Exiled_Tyke

A bit of interesting opinion contained in this write up of the Vattenfall issue here:

https://www.theguardian.com/business/nils-pratley-on-finance/2023/jul/20/higher-prices-for-uks-offshore-wind-cant-be-avoided

It does look like government is going to have to makes changes to the cfd process if it's going to meet its windfarm targets. 

It also got me thinking: 

1. The last few years has reminded us all that there is a lot of uncertainy in the world and any business case should take a healthy view of these. (as I suppose should government).  It's nothing like the same scale but it reminds me of the blinkered view and the greed of the bankers that brought the world econmy to its knees with the sub-prime fiasco.

2. A few commentators are (unsurprisingly) taking the opportunity to bash windfarms again on the back of this.  But even if the strike price were to rise 40% wind energy is still amazingly cheap and fantastic value compared to alternatives when externalities are brought into the reckoning. 

Martyn1981

I thought this might be interesting, it's an estimate of the amount of energy storage power output needed to eliminate RE curtailment in Spain. I found it interesting as it's roughly on scale with the old estimate I recall for the UK, about a decade ago, of about 20GW.

The Spanish estimate does specify long duration storage, whilst (from memory) I don't recall the UK figure being broken down at all, nor an energy figure given. But I assumed it was more about medium and long term storage, than short term (1-4hr) storage such as batts, for intraday grid balancing.

[Actually I'll go for a hunt on the interweb, and see what's being said now.]

‘Spain could eliminate economic curtailment of renewables’ with 15GW of long-duration energy storage

More than 5% of Spain’s renewable energy generation could face economic curtailment between 2025 and 2030, but long-duration energy storage (LDES) could reduce or eliminate that need.

That’s a key takeaway from analysis of the European country’s energy sector by Aurora Energy Research, published in a new study commissioned by Breakthrough Energy.

Martyn1981

Looking at a lot of articles. Many refer to the National Grid suggesting 20GW of battery storage will be needed by 2030, to allow us to reach net zero, and estimates of 35GW to 50GW by 2050.

Found an article that's old enough to cover the past figures from NG, and also new enough to look at current predictions, projections, and the various roles of different forms of storage. Covering 100's of GWh of shorter term storage, through to potentially 10's of TWh's of longer term storage. Also the various scenarios from 'falling short' to 'leading the way'.

UK needs at least 50GW of energy storage for net zero by 2050, National Grid ESO says

The UK will have 50GW-plus of energy storage installed by 2050 in a best case scenario attainment of net zero, according to grid operator National Grid’s Future Energy Scenarios report.

The report’s broader conclusions around the energy sector were covered in detail by Energy-Storage.news’ sister site Current yesterday.

It is published by the National Grid ESO (electricity system operator) each year and outlines four different pathways for the future of energy to 2050, including the energy storage deployments each entails (covering all technologies including batteries, pumped hydro, air-based solutions etc).

michaels

Am I having a senior moment? Aren't GW a measure of power not quantity?

Martyn1981

I think this is energy news, as hopefully it's a positive for sea birds. So if wind turbines can help with numbers, then that should (I assume) help with concerns on that side, that might impact deployment numbers.

In an industry first, artificial ‘bird nests’ have been built near an offshore wind farm

Danish wind giant Ørsted has completed three huge artificial nests designed to house a vulnerable seabird species near the UK’s Hornsea 3 offshore wind farm.

Hornsea 3 is a 2.85-gigawatt offshore wind farm that will be located off England’s east coast, around 120 km (75 miles) from Norfolk and 160 km (99 miles) from Yorkshire. It’s expected to be completed by 2025, and it will be capable of powering over 3 million households.

It’s also the first UK offshore wind project to require ecological compensation.

Each artificial nest has the capacity for around 500 nesting spaces spread across eight rows of ledges per nesting face. Individual nesting spaces are fitted with a sliding Perspex panel that allows researchers to view the kittiwake from inside without the birds seeing them.

Martyn1981

michaels said:

Am I having a senior moment? Aren't GW a measure of power not quantity?

I'm not sure I understand, but will take a guess.

The defining factor here is power, the estimates being that the storage will need to be able to take 15GW in order to avoid curtailment. I'm guessing, but perhaps the estimated shortfall in generation, when storage is needed, will also be about 15GW.

The amount of energy capacity, will depend on the length of time that the excess may exist, or the shortfall need filling. And will also depend on the type of storage, and what it's designed to do, eg, LAES or flow batts may be 10+hrs, or H2 and CAES may be an order of magnitude greater, but I am just throwing out generalisations.

What I've become accustomed to over the last ~10yrs, is that discussions about large scale storage (in the news, or policy announcements), are typically in terms of power. Energy figures are typically also given when discussing a specific project.



As an aside, and I know I harp on about this a lot, but I assume that national storage figures are now, somewhat impacted by the growing number of interconnectors. As countries can then share storage (to a degree), which probably helps to smooth things out a bit. Thus reducing the absolute total power and capacity of storage, that a country would otherwise need to have. But again, I'm guessing, generalising, and speculating.