Green, ethical, energy issues in the news

QrizB

Coastalwatch said:

A compelling report upon Japan's potential as a renewable energy generator being able to produce far more than it needs from renewable sources competitive or more so than those already in existance. It just requires the necessary get up and go to make it happen. Not too disimilar to many other countries around the globe.

Apparently it's potential is considerable and the country could easily transition to net zero well before 2050!

Japan’s vast wind and solar resources

To achieve its 2050 carbon neutrality commitment, Japan must eliminate greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuels, as they comprise nearly all of its emissions. Fortunately, Japan has everything it needs to become energy self-sufficient, in the form of solar, wind, and pumped hydro energy storage.

I'd have thought that Japan, like Iceland, would be well placed for geothermal power. Wonder why that doesn't get a mention?

Martyn1981

Coastalwatch said:

A compelling report upon Japan's potential as a renewable energy generator being able to produce far more than it needs from renewable sources competitive or more so than those already in existance. It just requires the necessary get up and go to make it happen. Not too disimilar to many other countries around the globe.

Apparently it's potential is considerable and the country could easily transition to net zero well before 2050!

Japan’s vast wind and solar resources

To achieve its 2050 carbon neutrality commitment, Japan must eliminate greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuels, as they comprise nearly all of its emissions. Fortunately, Japan has everything it needs to become energy self-sufficient, in the form of solar, wind, and pumped hydro energy storage.

By far the fastest energy change in history is underway. Solar and wind generators comprise three quarters of global electricity generation capacity additions (Figure 1). This is compelling market-based evidence that solar and wind are cheaper than fossil fuel generation. Solar has been the leading technology since 2016 and may reach 60% of new generation capacity in 2023.

Japan could produce all of its electricity from wind and solar for $86/110 MWh, which is competitive with current market prices. This includes the cost of transmission and storage needed to balance 100% renewable electricity. Japan could set an example for the world.

Importation of clean hydrogen for energy production (for example from Australia) is expensive because about three-quarters of the energy is lost in compression, shipping, storage and conversion which triples the effective energy cost. It’s cheaper for Japan to produce its own electricity from wind and solar than to import clean hydrogen.

https://www.pv-magazine.com/2023/06/19/japans-vast-wind-and-solar-resources/

Many thanks CW, a very interesting read, and the attached study from Science Direct too.

I was shocked at the amount of PHES that Japan already has, let alone the potential. They've got about 28GW already (plus 20GW of normal hydro), for comparison Dinorwig is 1.8GW.

But that estimate of RE, storage and transmission costs of $86 to $110/MWh is a real eye-opener. No wonder our Gov was told (back in 2018 by its advisors) to pause nuclear rollout and watch the falling RE and storage costs, as HPC is already at about $163/MWh just for generation.

The 2022 study gives a current cost for floating offshore wind of $363/MWh and a future cost of $82/MWh. For comparison the UK CfD auction last year issued contracts to  floating offshore wind, for the first time, at ~£117/MWh, so roughly $149/MWh*. Looking good?

*For reference, 'normal' offshore wind contracts were issued at ~£45/MWh (~$57/MWh).

Martyn1981

silverwhistle said:

Martyn1981 said:

In the US and Aus, they seem to be deploying 5MW and 6MW onshore wind, whereas we typically deploy ~3MW. We just don't have the roads and access in hilly areas for the necessary kit to reach site economically. But US and Aus have large flat areas with easier access*. UK has deployed larger onshore wind WT's at near shore/dockside locations where acess via ships is easy.

Bear in mind that even some of the earlier offshore turbines were fairly small. From memory Rampion off Brighton has 3.4MW in the first phase.

As for nuclear, I don't think any more will be developed beyond HPC, once the costs are examined. I wish Labour would just accept that anything they do will be attacked by the right wing media. The latter have no shame as the support for our recent ex-prime minister(s) shows.

Hiya Silverwhistle. I thought this report might interest you, from the US Gov. It looks at wind costs and the long term trend line. And as it's before the Ukraine invasion, it's not impacted by the current cost spikes in manufacturing, transport etc, which will distort figures until things settle back down.

[Though I suppose, it also pushes up gas costs, so wind looks even better in generation cost comparisons, but that's a bit of a cheat, but still G&E.]

The chart on cost predictions includes floating wind, which I think is handy, and the text explains the benefits of larger WT's, as you state.

Experts Predict 50% Lower Wind Costs Than They Did in 2015

A significant driver of these improvements is wind turbine size. For onshore wind, growth is expected not only in generator ratings (to 5.5 megawatts [MW] on average for projects newly installed in 2035, up from 2.5 MW in 2019) but also in rotor diameters and hub heights (see Figure 2). Offshore wind turbines are expected to get even bigger in the future—17 MW on average for projects built in 2035 (up from 6 MW in 2019). Floating offshore wind is anticipated to enter the market and gain market share, accounting for up to 25% of new offshore projects built in 2035.

Edit - Probably should stress this is for the US, as UK offshore wind generation contracts have actually fallen below the price of onshore. This fits with the size 'issue', where UK has more limitations on the rollout of larger onshore turbines, v's excellent wind energy resources in UK waters.

silverwhistle

Blimey! 17MW!

Martyn1981

silverwhistle said:

Blimey! 17MW!

Oh it gets better - Ready for another big blimey? A 15MW WT is already being tested and has successfully reached its rating, so an average of 17MW for deployments in 2035+ looks highly likely. I wonder what the upper size will be by then, if that's the average, 20MW?

The world’s most powerful wind turbine reaches 15 MW for the first time

The world’s most powerful wind turbine – the Vestas V236-15.0 MW prototype – just reached its full 15 megawatt (MW) power rating for the very first time.

Danish wind turbine maker Vestas’ 15 MW offshore wind turbine produced its first electricity in December 2022. It’s now started operating at its rated output following a production ramp-up period according to a tweet the company released today.

QrizB

Enjoying the recent posts on this thread more than I am the one over on "Energy" where everyone seems to think wind power is a long con being run by Big Turbine:
https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/6455594/wind-power-may-not-be-as-cheap-in-the-future-as-people-would-like-to-think

Martyn1981

QrizB said:

Enjoying the recent posts on this thread more than I am the one over on "Energy" where everyone seems to think wind power is a long con being run by Big Turbine:
https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/6455594/wind-power-may-not-be-as-cheap-in-the-future-as-people-would-like-to-think

Hiya QrizB, haven't read the thread, got some running around to do today, but I see the link is from watt-logic, which is run by Kathryn Porter, who's job is to act as a consultant for the gas industry, trying to help with the commissioning of gas generation.

For a decade some folk have tried to make hay whenever PV costs have stopped falling, or even at times risen. This will of course happen with PV (and wind) when component costs, transport, fuel etc costs fluctuate, and after over production sometimes gets ahead of rising demand. I suppose now that projections for onshore wind (as per the graphic I posted) are showing an ever slower cost decline, it's possible for some bandwagon mobility.

[Back to that chart, I think it's estimating a fall from about $37/MWh now to $27/MWh in 2050, so looks like a small decline, but still another 27%, and US wind is already cheaper than FF's.]

Importantly though, of course, the cost trends are still downward over the longer term, which is what really matters. And for wind, as Silverwhistle pointed out, larger WT's keep driving lower generation costs, as efficiency improves*

Add in inflation, which is currently hitting gas generation much harder (in fact is largely driven by gas prices) and RE costs get further distorted, but the big picture is still looking fine.

Sorry, you probably know all of this, but felt like sharing, as we all need positive news at times, and during all the bad and sad geo-political news at the moment, I think RE can cheer us all up.

*Plus of course, the larger WT's reach higher into the air, where the wind is more stable and stronger.


Something I do find interesting, is how in the UK PV has gotten closer to on-shore wind in price, whilst off-shore wind is far cheaper. This very much bucks the trend in most of the World, where their offshore potential isn't as good, but larger onshore WT's can be deployed (compared to most of the UK). But of course, even UK on-shore wind and PV is competitive against gas generation, much more so when the externbality costs are included (AGW etc).

michaels

I think the issue is not on the cost side but the revenue side.  Yes we can generate offshore wind at an average cost of less than £50 per MWh but more and more of that generation may be at times where the marginal revenue is low, nil or even negative.  If you curtail production at these times then given most of the cost is fixed not variable you effectively increase the average cost.

One would assume that if 'free' energy becomes available then the market will find  way of giving that energy some value - storage, production that can take place only when prices are low etc.

Of course this does not just impact renewables, the same logic applies to nuclear and even gas where there is a fixed cost that obviously is lower per unit the more units it is spread over.

silverwhistle

michaels said:

One would assume that if 'free' energy becomes available then the market will find  way of giving that energy some value - storage, production that can take place only when prices are low etc.

It already does to an extent with time of use tariffs such as Agile, which is beginning to look interesting again. Last time I noticed really low prices (<~4p) a week or so ago was actually during the day when PV must have been doing well, although the negative prices have always been overnight when windy.

Flexible consumers also took part in saver sessions last winter, but they won't be the ones moaning on the other thread.

michaels

And along comes another storage medium:

The world’s largest battery factory will be 2.5x the size of Tesla’s Gigafactory (electrek.co)