Green, ethical, energy issues in the news

Martyn1981

Time for this week's Carbon Commentary newsletter from Chris Goodall:

 Things I noticed and thought were interesting

Week ending October 24th 2021

 1, Hydrogen manufacture and use from local renewables. The Budweiser brewery in South Wales said it would use local solar and wind power to make hydrogen for use in its forklift trucks and for its long distance transport, as well as heat for the production process. It already uses 100% renewable electricity. The new plant will start in 2024. The company added that ‘the intermittent nature of renewable electricity, in harmony with hydrogen, creates a complementary, natural and emissions-free energy solution for its production and supply chains’. In other words, the value of hydrogen partly arises because it can be manufactured over the periods when when the brewery does not need all the electricity it is generating locally. The hydrogen can then be stored for use later as a source of heat or energy for trucks. In the US, an Illinois bus operator also announced the eventual conversion of its fleet to hydrogen to be made from local solar power. (Thanks to Thad Curtz). We will see increasing numbers of announcements such as these.
 
2, China solar. Academic researchers published a paper suggesting that China could meet over 40% of its total electricity demand in 2060 using solar PV at a cost of less than 2.5 US cents per kWh, including all the costs of the necessary battery storage. The authors estimate that about 80% of the technically possible solar installations in China in 2021 are already cost competitive with existing coal-fired generators. This strikingly detailed paper concludes that ‘solar plus storage could serve as a cost-competitive and grid-compatible source for a carbon neutrality power system in China.’

3, Capital raising. Money is flowing into unusual green transition businesses at rates that seem unprecedented. Two recent examples: Sunfire, the Germany-based leader in solid oxide ('SOEC') electrolysers, raised over $100m, the largest total ever raised by a private company in this sector. SOEC machines, which will eventually probably be the most efficient electrolysers, have been less attractive to investors than PEM technology. ESS, a flow battery company,raised $300m through a SPAC transaction. Similarly, flow battery businesses have previously been seen as unattractive investments compared to lithium ion producers. (Thanks to Afonso Vieiro).

4, Short-term fashion rental. H&M is in early trials of a blockchain rental service in a Berlin store. For €5 to €9 a day, the customer can rent individual items from a small range of clothes. Blockchain enables the user to see details of the provenance of the item and its rental history, including photographs. At the end of the life of the clothing I assume blockchain will be able to track the recycling of the materials and their rebirth into new clothing. But I cannot pretend to understand how.
 
5, Green Steel. Vehicle manufacturers use about 12% of world steel. Of the industry’s major customers, the auto makers are likely to be the first to switch to green sources. BMW announced it would become a customer of H2 Green Steel, which will be making 5 million tonnes a year in northern Sweden in 2025 using hydrogen rather than coal. Mercedes has also committed to buy from the Swedish start-up and bought a stake in the company earlier in the year. According to one source, steel represents about three quarters of the footprint of a new internal combustion engine car. (It will be less for an EV). So car makers see steel decarbonisation as a vital means of getting themselves to zero. If I worked at a conventional steel company, I’d be worried by the traction that H2 Green Steel is getting among car companies.
 
6, Direct Air Capture. Two businesses, Climeworks and Carbon Engineering, have dominated the attention given to DAC companies. A newer entity, Carbon Capture Inc. has recently raised $35m to enter this nascent field. RioTinto is among the shareholders. Carbon Capture uses inexpensive chemicals to collect the CO2 from the air. These zeolites are far cheaper than the amines used by its competitors, although this is not a large part of the overall price of DAC. Energy costs are far more important. Carbon Capture’s big advantage may be that it can deploy small DAC units easily and it hopes to install its first machine at a Rio Tinto mine in 2023. It claims that its target cost of $100 a tonne of CO2 is lower than can be achieved by either of its two main competitors although both Carbon Engineering and Climeworks have already predicted future costs at or below this level.

7, Salt cavern storage of hydrogen. A new hydrogen hub in Mississippi will store green hydrogen in salt caverns by 2025. With a storage capacity of 70,000 tonnes, the caverns will be the largest hydrogen storage site in the US, and probably the world. (70,000 tonnes has an energy value of approximately 2 TWh). The developer suggests that the most important use for the hydrogen is a fuel for power generation at times of electricity generation. Its backers are investing $3bn into the project. Salt caverns are the likely location for most large scale hydrogen storage in those lucky countries (US, Netherlands, Germany, UK etc) that have access to underground salt strata.
 
8, Public opinion. Yale Climate Change Communication publishes large US opinion surveys. The latest one shows a very high level of support for a revenue-neutral carbon tax. 69% support this proposal, up from 67% at the end of 2020. But favourable attitudes vary by party, with 88% of Democrats in support versus only 44% of Republicans. However we are seeing striking increases in the numbers saying that ‘people in the US are being harmed right now’ by climate change (up from 45% to 55% since March). Other recent data from Yale shows 29% of Americans support non-violent civil disobedience over the climate and 15% would be prepared to disobey the law themselves. By contrast, the level of support for Extinction Rebellion (XR) in the UK languishes, with only 18% of the public having a positive view. (Writing as a member of XR, this suggests to me a need for radical reform of tactics).

9, Alternative fuels for shipping. Analysts DNV held a very useful session on low carbon shipping. Presenters provided data on the share of current orders for new ships, pointing out that 25% of new tonnage will use fuels other than oil, but LNG – hardly a low carbon fuel – constitutes over four fifths of this total. Genuinely low carbon alternative propulsion represents less than 5% of vessels on order. A survey of 1000 attendees at the conference suggested that ammonia (33%) is seen as the best fuel for the longer term, followed by hydrogen (28%) and then e-methanol (19%). Separately, Amazon, Ikea and a group of other major users said that they would only be using green shipping companies by 2040, providing an important signal to the main shipowners.
 
10, Data. A wonderful article on the energy potential of a kilo of coal versus a kilo of silicon. (I saw this first on RenewEconomy). And, lastly, a reminder at today’s prices it is now cheaper in most of the world to make hydrogen from electrolysis rather than from fossil fuels. Of course this position will probably not be maintained but anyone who has invested in green hydrogen must be feeling smug at the moment.  

michaels

https://bylinetimes.com/2021/10/20/oil-system-collapsing-so-fast-it-may-derail-renewables-warn-french-government-scientists/

Remember peak oil?  Could it be a climate saviour?

Martyn1981

michaels said:

https://bylinetimes.com/2021/10/20/oil-system-collapsing-so-fast-it-may-derail-renewables-warn-french-government-scientists/

Remember peak oil?  Could it be a climate saviour?

That was a truly excellent read.

Martyn1981

Here's another news shocker, not just that California is looking to ban the purchase of 'gas' powered landscaping tools in a few years, but just how astonishingly polluting they are. US gas powered lawnmowers (of all sizes) account for about 5% of air pollution.

This vid looks at the scale of emissions, and how battery electric tools / vehicles are now cost competitive.

In their first example, looking at backpack leaf blowers, the battery version is cheaper, lighter, more powerful and quieter, and requires little to no maintenance (v's the regular air filter and spark plug maintenance of the gas version), but also it's vastly cheaper to run, in the range of 40c per day v's $40 per day (gas + 2 stroke oil).

I actually ignored this vid multiple times as it came up as a choice for me, thinking it would be silly/trivial, but it's anything but. And whilst it's probably more of a US thing, than UK, it's still an incredible eye-opener.

[Vid starts at 1.40 mark after ads and sponsors.]

A Breath of Fresh Air | In Depth

michaels

Martyn1981 said:

michaels said:

https://bylinetimes.com/2021/10/20/oil-system-collapsing-so-fast-it-may-derail-renewables-warn-french-government-scientists/

Remember peak oil?  Could it be a climate saviour?

That was a truly excellent read.

Just given it another read and actually it is quite scary:
1) The good is that fossil fuels are pricing themselves out of the market
2) The bad is that is because the total energy use (and thus CO2) per unit of useful FF energy is climbing rapidly, even if we keep using the same amount of useful FF energy during the transition to renewables this will equate to a rapidly increasing about of carbon emissions 

Martyn1981

michaels said:

Martyn1981 said:

michaels said:

https://bylinetimes.com/2021/10/20/oil-system-collapsing-so-fast-it-may-derail-renewables-warn-french-government-scientists/

Remember peak oil?  Could it be a climate saviour?

That was a truly excellent read.

Jut given it another read and actually it is quite scary:
1) The good is that fossil fuels are pricing themselves out of the market
2) The bad is that is because the total energy use (and thus CO2) per unit of useless FF energy is climbing rapidly so even if we keep using the same amount of useful FF energy during the transition to renewables this will equate to a rapidly increasing about of carbon emissions 

The irony here is that the EROI of RE keeps falling as technology improves and production scales ramp. Some may recall critics 5-10yrs ago claiming that wind and PV never generate enough to pay back the energy consumed in manufacture and install. That was a myth, and old figures had PV at about 4-5yrs in the UK and around 1.5-2yrs in sunnier climes. Onshore wind was less than a year.

Obviously as the amount of energy required drops, then so does the related CO2(e), and hopefully even further again as RE generation lowers CO2 in the leccy component. So a virtuous circle, v's the vicious circle for FF's.

The potential for rising emissions scares me too, but hopefully the growing shift away from FF's, and the fact that demand should fall in line with rising prices, might help.

The good news though is that this 'death spiral' looks unavoidable and unescapable?

Martyn1981

The RE scheme that simply refuses to die, is back (possibly) again.

The Swansea Tidal scheme has always been close to my heart, and if it proved itself, would almost certainly have spawned the 10x larger Cardiff scheme, expected to generate at half the cost, thanks to 'maths' (increase in a circles circumference (barrage walls) v's area (volume of water captured)), which would be physically even closer to my heart.

It's gone in and out of favour, especially thanks to the rapidly falling costs of offshore wind, but it does have a secret weapon - it will provide guaranteed and fully predictable generation every single day, in fact if nothing fundamental has changed, then it would generate for 4.5hrs four times per day, with a 2.5hr period between for the water level outside to rise or fall. Perhaps the added value of this predictability is helping with cost argument, which last time round was somewhere north of £85/MWh I think.

Reading through this article, there seems to be a lot of additional 'stuff' going on, such as water front housing, or even floating housing, floating PV etc, which may be part of how this scheme has once again risen from the ashes.

Best of luck to them.

£1.7 billion Blue Eden project announced for Swansea

The ground-breaking project proposed for Swansea's waterfront will include a newly-designed tidal lagoon, featuring state-of-the-art underwater turbines generating 320 megawatts of renewable energy from the 9.5km structure. 

The lagoon is part of the larger proposed Blue Eden project that's being led by Bridgend-based DST Innovations and a number of business partners, with support from Swansea Council and Associated British Ports.

Made possible by funding from the private sector, the innovative and economy-boosting Blue Eden will be delivered in three phases over 12 years. The project also includes:

• A 60,000 square metre manufacturing plant to make high-tech batteries for renewable energy storage

• A battery facility that will store the renewable energy produced at Blue Eden and power the site. If constructed now, it would be the world's largest facility of its kind

• A 72,000 square metre floating solar array anchored in the Queen's dock area, helping offset CO2 emissions by an estimated two million kilogrammes a year. This would be the UK's largest facility of its kind, with potential for expansion

• A 94,000 square metre data centre storing, processing and providing network capabilities for the critical services needed in modern day operations. Entirely powered by an uninterruptable renewable energy power supply, this would be the UK's first centre of its kind 

• An oceanic and climate change research centre that will become a hub for global excellence and innovation

• Floating dome structures that will become cultural and scientific centres to be enjoyed by all

• Residential waterfront homes for 5,000 people 

• Approximately 150 floating, highly energy-efficient eco-homes anchored in the water

michaels

Martyn1981 said:

michaels said:

Martyn1981 said:

michaels said:

https://bylinetimes.com/2021/10/20/oil-system-collapsing-so-fast-it-may-derail-renewables-warn-french-government-scientists/

Remember peak oil?  Could it be a climate saviour?

That was a truly excellent read.

Jut given it another read and actually it is quite scary:
1) The good is that fossil fuels are pricing themselves out of the market
2) The bad is that is because the total energy use (and thus CO2) per unit of useless FF energy is climbing rapidly so even if we keep using the same amount of useful FF energy during the transition to renewables this will equate to a rapidly increasing about of carbon emissions 

The irony here is that the EROI of RE keeps falling as technology improves and production scales ramp. Some may recall critics 5-10yrs ago claiming that wind and PV never generate enough to pay back the energy consumed in manufacture and install. That was a myth, and old figures had PV at about 4-5yrs in the UK and around 1.5-2yrs in sunnier climes. Onshore wind was less than a year.

Obviously as the amount of energy required drops, then so does the related CO2(e), and hopefully even further again as RE generation lowers CO2 in the leccy component. So a virtuous circle, v's the vicious circle for FF's.

The potential for rising emissions scares me too, but hopefully the growing shift away from FF's, and the fact that demand should fall in line with rising prices, might help.

The good news though is that this 'death spiral' looks unavoidable and unescapable?

What we have to hope is that it is a death spiral of FF and not of the planet....

Also we have anticipated the demise of cheap oil before only for a new technology, be it off shore or fracking to come along and keep prices in check.  Obviously it would seem there is no immediate new tech on the horizon but never say never.

Finally if we can't achieve the same energy production capacity as we have now (and indeed the same rising path) then effectively we are all going to see a fall in living standards as (less efficiency gains) the two are pretty closely correlated.

Martyn1981

Talking of energy demand, always worth remembering how much of the FF energy is actually wasted (on top off all of the energy consumed/lost in extracting and transporting it). So whilst we need to replace one hell of a lot of energy consumption, it is at least much smaller than the gross amount of FF energy we 'release' since most of that gross figure is actually wasted.

This is a popular illustration for the US, that pops up a lot on other forums and in the BTL comment sections for many articles. It shows that roughly 2/3rds of the FF energy is wasted, which is good news from a replacement standpoint:-

michaels

Do we know where the energy to extract the energy is in that diagram?