So, House Prices can't fall uh?

kingkano

PasturesNew wrote: »

But what if we took some LOW figures. Would that please you?

What if prices didn't rise for 3 years -but- they actually fell by just 2% twice a year for those 3 years?

Then a £200k house would be £177k

And if you were saving £200/month and had £5k now, saved in an ISA at 6.3%, your deposit would be about £14k

So you'd need to borrow £163k instead of £195 needed today.

So, even on minimal changes, over just 3 years, you can see the change.
Now do the sums with bigger drops...

Except if you can't borrow the money to buy it. Currently you'd get 5x salary. With the credit crunch that's going to precipitate this bust, you might get 3x. If 5x couldnt get you 195 I doubt 3x can get you 163?

Turnbull2000

kingkano wrote: »

Thats funny. looking at the nationwide figures the other day I noticed LOTS of booms in property prices with no corresponding 'busts'? early 70s... late 70s... there was a few others I forget now.

Have you actually done an ounce of research about the 70's? A super-inflationary environment followed the 70's property boom, causing 30% falls against the value of money.

This escape act is no longer possible to due global economic pressures.

Some people really don't have a clue...

PasturesNew

Here's a fact.

Not everybody has always been able to get a house. House prices being out of the reach of many people has always been a fact.

The only difference now is house prices are out of reach of more people.

The only thing that you can do is decide if you really want to buy your own house and how far you are prepared to go for it.

Many people say they can't afford one - yet when asked how much they've saved the answer is £0.

You can't build a house if you don't have the foundations down.

I believe prices will be falling - by up to 30% - and prices will be low(er) for certainly 5-6 years, possibly 10 years to get back to yesterday's prices.

That should give many people a chance to bite the cherry

free4440273

i do indeed see a 'correction' but i see it being shortlived (in the UK at least): massive shortage of land; made worse by recent floodings; huge increase in immigration (pros and cons); under-supply of (new) housing stock. i think in five years, in most parts of the UK, prices will either be where they are now or even slightly higher (London and the South East, Cambridge, Surrey etc)

PasturesNew

London and the South East, Cambridge, Surrey

You mean the posh/expensive bits where there's an over-abundance of wealth and opportunity.

free4440273

PasturesNew wrote: »

You mean the posh/expensive bits where there's an over-abundance of wealth and opportunity.

don't point the finger at me

pickles110564

PasturesNew wrote: »

I believe prices will be falling - by up to 30% - and prices will be low(er) for certainly 5-6 years, possibly 10 years to get back to yesterday's prices.

That should give many people a chance to bite the cherry

How many new properties do you think will come onto the market after a 30% crash?

Why would you sell at this point in the property cycle?

pieceoffluff

i think comparing uk and irish (republic) markets is extremely misleading on the part of the OP ..my mum recently built a house in the republic in probably the same amount of time it would have taken to get planning permission here

phlash

kingkano wrote: »

Except if you can't borrow the money to buy it. Currently you'd get 5x salary. With the credit crunch that's going to precipitate this bust, you might get 3x. If 5x couldnt get you 195 I doubt 3x can get you 163?

Your argument just supports the argument for further house price falls! If people can't obtain it with the available credit around at the time, then the house prices have to fall further such that they can!!

Did you mean to argue that?

tomstickland

hearts wrote: »

The best evidence on how the housing market is doing is to quite simply walk out your door and up the street. Check out whats happening there.
Houses where I am are still rising. You can post all the articles you want but I will always go on the evidence of my own eyes. ;-)

Aha, but as we found out in earlier posts, you regard the projection of the past as a reliable indicator of the future.