When will London burst ?

[Deleted User]

lisyloo wrote: »

What event will cause them to default on their mortgages? interest rates are staying low for a while and unemployment is going down.
When do you think this will happen?

Interest rates will not stay low forever. Unemployment has gone up. The rest is all cheap propaganda. Wages will go down in both absolute real terms and it will be difficult for the middle class to service their mortgages when they reach 70-80% of their wages.

MARTYM8`

wotsthat wrote: »

The issue is that people, whilst not short of ideas for shifting other people out of London, tend to have a million and one excuses why they themselves absolutely have to stay.

You've sold Wiltshire - nice place, direct trains, close to the M4, stones circles etc. etc. Why isn't everyone there? Answer - it ain't London.

Agreed!

London should be for young people - not oldies like padington!:D

padington

MARTYM8` wrote: »

Agreed!

London should be for young people - not oldies like padington!:D

How old do you think I am ?

chewmylegoff

padington wrote: »

How old do you think I am ?

......Twelve?

lisyloo

How old do you think I am ?

I'm guessing 45-50.

Generali

ciaccino wrote: »

Unemployment has gone up.

What country are you talking about? It certainly isn't the UK.

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/unemployment-rate
http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/may/13/uk-unemployment-falls-as-wage-growth-rises
http://www.cnbc.com/id/102674136
http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2015/0513/700794-uk-jobless-figures/
https://au.news.yahoo.com/a/27885682/uk-unemployment-strikes-2008-low/

News outlets across the world have been reporting it from the US to Ireland to Australia. Even The Guardian says unemployment is falling.

tkane

ciaccino wrote: »

Interest rates will not stay low forever. Unemployment has gone up. The rest is all cheap propaganda. Wages will go down in both absolute real terms and it will be difficult for the middle class to service their mortgages when they reach 70-80% of their wages.

All post MMR mortgages are stress tested to ensure that borrowers can withstand interest rates at 3% higher than the prevailing interest rate at the time the mortgage was taken out.

Pre MMR mortgagees are likely to have built up a nice bit of equity to fall back on.

It all depends on employment, and on that front things are looking pretty good.

lisyloo

I presume "the rest is propoganda" means he/she doesn't believe the official figures.

I'm not a conspiracy theorist and I don't believe the figures are made up but I do believe there is a great deal of underemployment and some people declaring themselves self-employed and selling a few things on ebay to get in-work benefits.

My view is that interest rates are likely to stay low because of the amount of government and personal debt. Wages are now going up, so the overall picture is pretty good short term (I worry about pensions but no-one cares about the long term).

Barring some kind of economic shock like a major terrorist event it looks like things are pretty rosy in the garden short term.
There's a huge timebomb coming in 20-30 years when no-one has a pension and a load of "renters" need housing benefit in retirement - but that's not going to affect house prices right now or in the next 5 years, so I don't see a burst short term.

tkane

If anyone wants any evidence that London is going through another bubble right now, look at this:

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-49759498.html?premiumA=true

I NEVER expected it to sell at this price for a 1 bed.

I purchased a 2 bed in the block immediately behind this one last year for £450k.

The only difference is that this block faces Regent Square.

padington

Everything is geared for a massive housing boom for the next five or ten years followed by mahoosive housing crash.

What with Europe close to the rocks again I think we may also have a wall of investor cash coming our way again.

I'm expecting things to go mental. From here on in though, property is a purely an old fashioned gamble, one which may well play well for many years but at some point, late comers to the party are going to get more than their fingers burnt.

Until then though, some lucky people, able to come and go are going to make an apsolute killing.

I imagine, the biggest gains, will probably be made may 2015 - may 2016.