When will London burst ?

wotsthat

padington wrote: »

Everything is geared for a massive housing boom for the next five or ten years followed by mahoosive housing crash.

What with Europe close to the rocks again I think we may also have a wall of investor cash coming our way again.

I'm expecting things to go mental. From here on in though, property is a purely an old fashioned gamble, one which may well play well for many years but at some point, late comers to the party are going to get more than their fingers burnt.

Until then though, some lucky people, able to come and go are going to make an apsolute killing.

I imagine, the biggest gains, will probably be made may 2015 - may 2016.

People were using similar language about silver.

As far as I see predictions of 50% up by Christmas are as credible as the 50% off by Christmas claims. Can't see that people sitting in either of these extreme camps are better informed than anyone else - their coin has landed on a different side that's all.

padington

wotsthat wrote: »

People were using similar language about silver.

As far as I see predictions of 50% up by Christmas are as credible as the 50% off by Christmas claims. Can't see that people sitting in either of these extreme camps are better informed than anyone else - their coin has landed on a different side that's all.

Not 50% but I think we've got a 15% rise coming for London and the Londoner friendly areas for May 2015 - 2016 and maybe again almost as much again for 2016 - 2017.

With some sweet spots seeing some crazy rises.

I certainly wouldn't be betting on it not happening this year.

[Deleted User]

If you believe the official propaganda, you could well say that Santa exists and let's put a fullstop to that.

If unemployment and inflation rate were calculated with the parameters of the 80's, unemployment would probably be at the levels of Spain and Italy and inflation (if you take rent prices into account) should be around 12-15%.

In the UK we don't have an equivalent to Shadowstats. If there was one, it would be discarded and boycotted by the tabloid !!!!!.

But feel free to believe what the Sun and the Daily fail feed you and live in your own bubble.

chucknorris

ciaccino wrote: »

If you believe the official propaganda, you could well say that Santa exists and let's put a fullstop to that.

Sorry but Santa doesn't only exist, he has already delivered the presents. I am very pleased with them too, I can't believe how much our London properties have gone up in the last few years. Going forward, I'll settle for around 2-3% per annum for the next 7-8 years before selling.

Generali

ciaccino wrote: »

If you believe the official propaganda, you could well say that Santa exists and let's put a fullstop to that.

If unemployment and inflation rate were calculated with the parameters of the 80's, unemployment would probably be at the levels of Spain and Italy and inflation (if you take rent prices into account) should be around 12-15%.

In the UK we don't have an equivalent to Shadowstats. If there was one, it would be discarded and boycotted by the tabloid !!!!!.

But feel free to believe what the Sun and the Daily fail feed you and live in your own bubble.

Inflation should be 12-15% and over a fifth of Britons are unemployed. LOL.

I can only assume you're on the wind-up, a parody of a stereotypical one of those bizarre left-wing libertarians that pop up from time to time.

padington

chucknorris wrote: »

Sorry but Santa doesn't only exist, he has already delivered the presents. I am very pleased with them too, I can't believe how much our London properties have gone up in the last few years. Going forward, I'll settle for around 2-3% per annum for the next 7-8 years before selling.

I think we have to look back and thank the Olympics for being the best advert UK has ever had. It not only instilled confidence in our abilities to people overseas it also gave the British people themselves a renewed confidence in each other.

A truly watershed year for the UK.

It possibily gave the scots a little too much confidence but you can't have everything

chucknorris

padington wrote: »

I think we have to look back and thank the Olympics for being the best advert UK has ever had. It not only instilled confidence in our abilities to people overseas it also gave the British people themselves a renewed confidence in each other.

A truly watershed year for the UK.

It possibily gave the scots a little too much confidence but you can't have everything

The Olympics have certainly helped us, my wife has 3 houses in Hackney.

Wi88le

tkane wrote: »

All post MMR mortgages are stress tested to ensure that borrowers can withstand interest rates at 3% higher than the prevailing interest rate at the time the mortgage was taken out.

Pre MMR mortgagees are likely to have built up a nice bit of equity to fall back on.

It all depends on employment, and on that front things are looking pretty good.

Not all post MMR mortgages fall under MMR rules, 5 year fixes don't and are not stress tested as per MMR.
I also wouldn't be assuming pre MMR mortgagees will have equity built up or at least in a significant amount "to fall back on" whatever that means or how it will help if tshtf, and that assumes there is no drop or stagnation in prices.

Employment figures currently look good but how much of that is smoke and mirrors rather than "genuine" employment? Self employed and claiming working tax credits rather than jsa, zero hours contracts and the under employed.

lisyloo

Not all post MMR mortgages fall under MMR rules

Agreed, but lending is still fairly tight.
We aren't seeing 125% mortgages or liar loans en-masse.

For people to not afford their mortgage you need mass unemployment or big rises in interest rates. Do either of those look on the cards? I'd say no.

Employment figures currently look good but how much of that is smoke and mirrors rather than "genuine" employment? Self employed and claiming working tax credits rather than jsa, zero hours contracts and the under employed.

Yes the figures are fudged as they always have beeen.
But there is not mass unemployment where millions of people can't pay their mortgages.

[Deleted User]

lisyloo wrote: »

there is not mass unemployment where millions of people can't pay their mortgages.

Those who have been hit the hardest are the ones who already were on the edge and didn't have a mortgage because they lived in rented accommodation.

It doesn't take mass unemployment to pop a housing bubble. All it takes is that the middle class have their wages reduced (or their tax credits removed) and are unable to service their mortgages.

No bubble lasts forever, it's a matter of fact. It will happen overnight and it will be painful, especially to the deluded who have jumped on the property !!!!!! bandwagon too late.