Radio5 - houses to rise 40% in 4 years.

zappahey

neverdespairgirl wrote: »

Less than a year ago, and oh so wrong.....

Heh! Did you put a marker in your calendar to come back to this? It was only the mention of oil in the mid-$70s that made me realise it was old.

Snooze

And there's more musings...

Jennifer_Jane wrote: »

House prices set to continue rising

By Nicholas Timmins, Public Policy Editor
Published: August 6 2007 04:36 | Last updated: August 6 2007 04:36

The average house price in England is set to jump by 40 per cent over the next five years to break the £300,000 barrier, research conducted by Oxford Economics for the National Housing Federation shows.
London’s housing market is set for even steeper increases – nearer 50 per cent – as City bonuses and speculative foreign investors see it become decoupled from the rest of the country.

The findings underlined the need for the government to deliver on housing promises, the federation said, warning that the current plans to build 240,000 homes a year by 2016 would still not cover the housing shortfall.
“Lack of sufficient supply is creating a bigger and bigger housing problem, year on year,” said the federation.
House prices are at a historic high compared to earnings – nearly an 11 times multiple – and are at present overvalued by around 10 per cent, according to Oxford Economics’ analysis.
But rising demand, increasing income, growing household wealth, relatively low interest rates and an undersupply of new homes made a crash unlikely, it said.
Instead the rate of increase in house prices was likely to slow to about 2 per cent this year and next before taking off again with increases reaching 10 per cent a year by 2012.
That was set to take the average price from £213,000 currently to just over £300,000, with London prices jumping further from £322,500 currently to £478,000 by 2012.
Record City and financial services sector bonuses, buy-to-let and foreign investment, not just from Russia and Arab countries but from Italy and France, were driving prices spectacularly upward in the capital, the report said.
House price inflation for £1m-plus houses was now running at over 30 per cent, the highest rate in nearly 30 years.
At the same time, the capital had about 70,000 people on waiting lists for social housing, David Orr, the federation’s chief executive said, as “swathes of the London housing market are becoming decoupled from the rest of the country”.
In only seven out of roughly 400 local authority areas across England do the cheapest homes cost less than four times average earnings. In London the multiple is 13 times for an average priced home. In the London borough of Kensington and Chelsea and in south Buckinghamshire house prices are now more than 20 times local average earnings.
The mismatch between house prices and income was causing despair for a generation of would-be homeowners, the federation said. But the roots of that lay in the equally important mismatch between supply and demand.

Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2007

The FT have published this too. I don't think that 8.8% p.a. is so very high. I would expect (well, hope!) that my unit trust ISAs would do as well as this.

As it happens, my house is NOT increasing by anything per annum!

Jen

:rotfl:

Rob

mr.broderick

neverdespairgirl wrote: »

Less than a year ago, and oh so wrong.....

Desperate mesaures from the neverdespaiir gal..digging up old dirt...hehe it's a good sign.

Kez100

So that's Oxford and Cambridge.....now ask Scumbag College. They live in reality land.

Ra Ra Ra - we're going to smash the oiks!

Pobby

mr.broderick wrote: »

Desperate mesaures from the neverdespaiir gal..digging up old dirt...hehe it's a good sign.

Good sign of what Mr. B?

mr.broderick

Pobby wrote: »

Good sign of what Mr. B?

Devils curve sir...We're heading for an amazing turn of events very shortly...I will be around to say i told you so...;)

phlash

Well.....I'll stick my nose out and say house prices will be -24% from the peak within 18 months.

It took USA less than 9 months to be -16%, commercial UK are on par with that now.

Nationwide is at -4.4% year on year as of May 2008.

Resurrect in 18 months, and I'll provide the eggs if needed.

PS. Its nice to post again!

mr.broderick

phlash wrote: »

Well.....I'll stick my nose out and say house prices will be -24% from the peak within 18 months.

It took USA less than 9 months to be -16%, commercial UK are on par with that now.

Nationwide is at -4.4% year on year as of May 2008.

Resurrect in 18 months, and I'll provide the eggs if needed.

PS. Its nice to post again!

Ban up phlash?

phlash

Ban as if! Been too busy, and quite happy that the media was just about covering the bad news as it happened.

Seems to be a lot of bearish sentiment on here anyway, I wasn't really needed.

Nice to know that there are still a few jokers around mr.broderick.

Pobby

mr.broderick wrote: »

Devils curve sir...We're heading for an amazing turn of events very shortly...I will be around to say i told you so...;)

Mr.B, please give a little more detail to what may happen dear sir.