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Who will win the UK election ?
padington
Posts: 3,121 Forumite
Updated from betfair hourly ...
http://www.electionwatch.co.uk
Labour looking stronger ( and with Cleg talking about being more anti establishment than ever and with SNP aligned to help redistributive policies ) it's begining to look like a Lib Lab coalition is more possible.
It's very possible that prime real estate will get a pasting and rent to own will create a new significant paradigm in British housing. If so we may see prices platau for five years and running battles with right leaning old Nimby's joining young Eco anarchists on the green belt.
Saying that Cleg could be playing the 'I'm more anti establishment' card to try to help win more votes and continue to align with the Tories after. The liberals always have talked left and acted right when the time came, after all.
It's going to be an exciting election that's for sure.
http://www.electionwatch.co.uk
Labour looking stronger ( and with Cleg talking about being more anti establishment than ever and with SNP aligned to help redistributive policies ) it's begining to look like a Lib Lab coalition is more possible.
It's very possible that prime real estate will get a pasting and rent to own will create a new significant paradigm in British housing. If so we may see prices platau for five years and running battles with right leaning old Nimby's joining young Eco anarchists on the green belt.
Saying that Cleg could be playing the 'I'm more anti establishment' card to try to help win more votes and continue to align with the Tories after. The liberals always have talked left and acted right when the time came, after all.
It's going to be an exciting election that's for sure.
Proudly voted remain. A global union of countries is the only way to commit global capital to the rule of law.
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Comments
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The Loony Party.Liverpool is one of the wonders of Britain,
What it may grow to in time, I know not what.
Daniel Defoe: 1725.
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...It's very possible that prime real estate will get a pasting and rent to own will create a new significant paradigm in British housing. ....
Why would the election of a Labour government cause "prime real estate" to "get a pasting". It didn't last time. Unless, that is, you are expecting them to try and blow up the banking system.
Again.
P.S. Whenever someone describes anything as a 'new paradigm' you just know that it's BS.:)0 -
Recently I have been tracking the betfair price for 'most sets won' in the election and I have been comforted by the fact that the tories have shortened significantly, it is currently about:
4/9 Tories
9/4 Labour
But I now think that my comfort was misplaced, because we are very likely to have a hung parliament, and with the SNP expected to win up to 55 seats, I fear the worst. It looks extremely close to me.
http://may2015.com/category/seat-calculator/Chuck Norris can kill two stones with one birdThe only time Chuck Norris was wrong was when he thought he had made a mistakeChuck Norris puts the "laughter" in "manslaughter".I've started running again, after several injuries had forced me to stop0 -
Looking at the current forecasts, I can't see how either side can form a government without the SNP. Milliband has already ruled out having a coalition with any SNP ministers. The Tories can't get the numbers without getting some really unlikely bedfellows onside.
It's going to be strange times ahead. Can anyone else see a way of getting to 326 without the Nats? Con/Lab alliance anyone?
Salmond on tv as I write this... saying "if you hold the balance you hold the power".Please stay safe in the sun and learn the A-E of melanoma: A = asymmetry, B = irregular borders, C= different colours, D= diameter, larger than 6mm, E = evolving, is your mole changing? Most moles are not cancerous, any doubts, please check next time you visit your GP.
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Why would the election of a Labour government cause "prime real estate" to "get a pasting". It didn't last time. Unless, that is, you are expecting them to try and blow up the banking system.
Again.
P.S. Whenever someone describes anything as a 'new paradigm' you just know that it's BS.:)
Westminster asking prices down over 17% this month.... Think about it.Proudly voted remain. A global union of countries is the only way to commit global capital to the rule of law.0 -
vivatifosi wrote: »
It's going to be strange times ahead. Can anyone else see a way of getting to 326 without the Nats? .
A not implausible scenario is as follows....
Some UKIP support goes home to Tory at the last minute as the prospect of Red Ed gaining power sinks in, this gets the Tories to 295, Clegg and Co hold 25 seats as local Lib Dem support is stronger than the universal swing suggests, and the DUP throw in their 8 seats.
A 3 way coalition with a super slim majority at 328 seats held....
And neither UKIP nor the ScotNats are involved.“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”0 -
The majority of people don't want any of main parties or numpty candidates.
That is the sad thing about this election. People want an anti Westminster party, and anti bank party, anti big business.... The anti party!
Anti party but pro people.... A party for the majority of poeple not the top 5% which includes MP's.Peace.0 -
We need the election system to include:
"None of the Above" on the ballot paper
Plus... compulsory voting
If the majority vote "none of the above" .... then we have a re election.Peace.0 -
I think Tory minority government, or even a majority, is the most likely outcome.
The polls have Labour and Tory on low to mid 30%s, pretty much neck and neck, and UKIP around 17%.
My thinking is firstly that it will not take much of that 17% for UKIP back to the Tories to put them ahead in the polls. I'm sure they will poll more than last time, but it will be single digits imho. I think the effect of people saying they'll vote UKIP at this stage is making the race look closer than it actually is; because when it comes to crunch time they'll go back to the Tories.
Second I don't think Labour's core support will turn out for Ed Miliband, not outside of London anyway. If you look at Heywood and Middleton and the recent by election, Labour's majority was slashed in a traditional Labour seat when they should have been picking up protest votes and if anything increasing their majority. Miliband holds little appeal outside of London, and I don't think the anti-Tory feeling is strong enough to get people out.
So I reckon the Tories will do much better than expected. But we'll have to see!“I could see that, if not actually disgruntled, he was far from being gruntled.” - P.G. Wodehouse0
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