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The UK doesn’t have a housing shortage
Killerseven
Posts: 205 Forumite
Do we have a housing supply problem in the UK? Your automatic answer to the question will probably be ‘yes’. After all, if we didn’t have a shortage of houses, house prices wouldn’t be as high as they are.
But look closely at the numbers in the latest English Housing Survey and you will see that it isn’t really so. (This is a fantastically detailed report – if you are interested in housing in the UK it is really worth spending some time on.)
On page 28, the survey considers the extent of overcrowding in English houses. Its conclusion is that there is very little. Some 3% of households live in overcrowded conditions, but 37% had at least two spare rooms, and were classified as “underoccupying”. Another 34% weren’t classified as officially underoccupying, but still had one spare room.
The upshot is that nearly 70% of households in the UK have at least one bedroom more than they need (or use). So we have less a shortage of floor space in the UK than a (presumably generational, and so short term) misallocation of the floor space we already have.
Capital Economics picked up the story in a note out earlier this week. It notes that from 2004 to 2014, the number of households in the UK rose by an average of 170,000 a year, but the number of dwellings in the UK increased by some 200,000 a year. That suggests a rise in the number of “apparently surplus homes” to around 1.3 million.
This is not to suggest for a second that all is well in the housing market – it isn’t. The problem is perhaps not so much a housing shortage, as a shortage of the right kind of houses in the right kind of places. It is also a shortage of the finance the young need to buy those houses –because of the competition from buy to let investors, or the tougher mortgage environment since the financial crisis.
http://moneyweek.com/merryns-blog/the-uk-doesnt-have-a-housing-shortage/
But look closely at the numbers in the latest English Housing Survey and you will see that it isn’t really so. (This is a fantastically detailed report – if you are interested in housing in the UK it is really worth spending some time on.)
On page 28, the survey considers the extent of overcrowding in English houses. Its conclusion is that there is very little. Some 3% of households live in overcrowded conditions, but 37% had at least two spare rooms, and were classified as “underoccupying”. Another 34% weren’t classified as officially underoccupying, but still had one spare room.
The upshot is that nearly 70% of households in the UK have at least one bedroom more than they need (or use). So we have less a shortage of floor space in the UK than a (presumably generational, and so short term) misallocation of the floor space we already have.
Capital Economics picked up the story in a note out earlier this week. It notes that from 2004 to 2014, the number of households in the UK rose by an average of 170,000 a year, but the number of dwellings in the UK increased by some 200,000 a year. That suggests a rise in the number of “apparently surplus homes” to around 1.3 million.
This is not to suggest for a second that all is well in the housing market – it isn’t. The problem is perhaps not so much a housing shortage, as a shortage of the right kind of houses in the right kind of places. It is also a shortage of the finance the young need to buy those houses –because of the competition from buy to let investors, or the tougher mortgage environment since the financial crisis.
http://moneyweek.com/merryns-blog/the-uk-doesnt-have-a-housing-shortage/
HTB = Help to Bubble.
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Comments
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Holy cow.....
Speechless.“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”0 -
Killerseven wrote: »... The problem is perhaps not so much a housing shortage, as a shortage of the right kind of houses in the right kind of places. ...
Reminds me of the Morecambe & Wise gag - I'm playing all the right notes; but not necessarily in the right order.:)0 -
Of course there's no shortage of bedrooms. People are greedy after all.
There is a housing shortage though, prices tell you that. If there was no shortage do you really think house prices would be at their current levels?Changing the world, one sarcastic comment at a time.0 -
UK and France have virtually the same population now but we have 27.5m homes and they have 31 million a difference of 3.5m homes0
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UK and France have virtually the same population now but we have 27.5m homes and they have 31 million a difference of 3.5m homes
Also important is the trend. By 2025 it will be roughly
35 million homes in France to 29 million in the UK
We will probably also have a larger population than france by that point maybe by as much as 1 million more people than them
The UK has a shortage which is getting worse no matter what some survey tells you about spare bedrooms0 -
Also important is the trend. By 2025 it will be roughly
35 million homes in France to 29 million in the UK
We will probably also have a larger population than france by that point maybe by as much as 1 million more people than them
The UK has a shortage which is getting worse no matter what some survey tells you about spare bedrooms
So, what differs in the France housing strategy to that of the UK?
How come they are so much better than us at getting this sorted?0 -
There are plenty of housing up north & in Wales, but the demand is in the SE and London. They build the housing in the wrong place. ie. up north rather than within the M25.It's not the despair, Laura. I can take the despair. It's the hope I can't stand. ~ Brian Stimpson, Clockwise0
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These "spare bedrooms" - are we talking social housing & private landlords or does it include privately owned properties ?
Is owning your own property as popular in France or are private rentals more prevalent ?0 -
Lots of second homes in France...0
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