Tesla to unveil home storage batteries

almillar

Wow, that Zoe offer is a lot cheaper than I thought they were going for!
£69x24 plus, say, £60x24 for the 7,500 miles per year option, plus credit fee £139 plus option to purchase fee £10(?) is £3,245. No tax, so just add insurance and charging (free charger installation, and charging is free in lots of public places).
That seems like very cheap motoring in a brand new car for 2 years... Apart from the range, which surely isn't a problem if it's a second car, what am I missing?

zeupater

almillar wrote: »

.... what am I missing?

... Batteries & car both are likely a pretty high charge for over-mileage, that's the usual pitfall, then there's the condition of the car if you're handing it back at the end of the lease, that's always money in the bank for them ...

HTH
Z

oldskoo1

Looks like the power wall home battery solution is now sold out until mid 2016

zeupater

Martyn1981 wrote: »

... I thought this Bloomberg article was pretty good ....

Hi

... Although it's pretty obvious that at 1/3 of the cost of competitor offerings the pack still isn't cost-effective as it stands ... it really needs some form of support until technology & economies of scale force the price down for grid-tied applications .... it's also a case that the article author doesn't understand that the pack isn't supposed to provide all power for occasional use high draw appliances/devices, just cover baseline demand - cover our fridge, freezer, TV & LED lights overnight would knock a very big hole in our overnight grid-import ...

HTH
Z

almillar

... Batteries & car both are likely a pretty high charge for over-mileage, that's the usual pitfall, then there's the condition of the car if you're handing it back at the end of the lease, that's always money in the bank for them .

Excellent, so just the usual PCP stuff then!
Seems like an excellent second car for bouncing round town in.

ed110220

zeupater wrote: »

Hi

... Although it's pretty obvious that at 1/3 of the cost of competitor offerings the pack still isn't cost-effective as it stands ... it really needs some form of support until technology & economies of scale force the price down for grid-tied applications .... it's also a case that the article author doesn't understand that the pack isn't supposed to provide all power for occasional use high draw appliances/devices, just cover baseline demand - cover our fridge, freezer, TV & LED lights overnight would knock a very big hole in our overnight grid-import ...

HTH
Z

Probably not in the UK at the moment but on a world scale I think there will be plenty of places where it will be economic. I remember hearing that battery storage was already marginally economic in Australia some time ago as electricity is relatively expensive and of course it's a sunny country. But perhaps counterintuitively electricity prices vary more around the world than sunshine doe.

Ed

zeupater

ed110220 wrote: »

Probably not in the UK at the moment but on a world scale I think there will be plenty of places where it will be economic. I remember hearing that battery storage was already marginally economic in Australia some time ago as electricity is relatively expensive and of course it's a sunny country. But perhaps counterintuitively electricity prices vary more around the world than sunshine doe.

Ed

Hi Ed

I think that Germany would probably be amongst the first major economies to show a breakeven as their energy costs are around 25p/kWh as opposed to the majority being somewhere around 15p.

For us, as low users, the system would need to provide an average of ~3.5kWh overnight (which would require ~4kWh of spare generation) that's a straightforward ~13000kWh total saving over 10 years (3.5x365x10), which on a current cost basis equates to ~£2000 (13000*0.15) .... of course, even with a 4kWp system, there are plenty of winter days where there's nowhere near 4kWh of spare generation, so let's ramp the saving back by (a very conservative) 20% to £1600 (excluding finance provision, maintenance etc) over 10 years ....

So, there's an idea of the target breakeven point price for us ... £1600 fully installed ... now, what's the price, $3000, so that's likely to be a straight £3000 in the UK considering that we usually pay £1:$1 for most technology items ... add a DC/AC inverter and control system at £750(?) and supply/installation at £500(?) then VAT at 5% (assuming will be included as 5% qualifying) we have a probable (decent) UK price point of ~£4500((3000+750+500)x1.05), or applying a standard UK (plumber/electrician) margin ~£8000(((3000+750)x2)x1.05) ....

Of course, if we really wanted to make the payback look good we could say that we lived in a country where we always had enough generation to maximise system usage (& pretend that this wouldn't effect the battery-life expectancy !) and use German energy prices and assume that UK prices would be the same as in the US and that installers will be generous on margins ....

When it comes down to being realistic, there won't be a significant take-up in the UK unless the price (installed) makes sense and/or the government see the technology as a way to shift existing subsidy from corporate supply/generation to consumer storage ....

HTH
Z

Martyn1981

zeupater wrote: »

Hi Ed

For us, as low users, the system would need to provide an average of ~3.5kWh overnight (which would require ~4kWh of spare generation) that's a straightforward ~13000kWh total saving over 10 years (3.5x365x10), which on a current cost basis equates to ~£2000 (13000*0.15) .... of course, even with a 4kWp system, there are plenty of winter days where there's nowhere near 4kWh of spare generation, so let's ramp the saving back by (a very conservative) 20% to £1600 (excluding finance provision, maintenance etc) over 10 years ....

HTH
Z

I came to very similar numbers (£1,400 over 10 years) in posts 13 & 16. So costs will need to fall considerably, though like you, I'd only need 4kWh useable (5kWh battery), so that allows for a price cut.

I'd also hope that costs wouldn't transfer $1 = £1, as production should take place in Europe (eventually), and battery costs (according to the off-gridders) aren't too bad in mainland Europe.

zeupater wrote: »

When it comes down to being realistic, there won't be a significant take-up in the UK unless the price (installed) makes sense and/or the government see the technology as a way to shift existing subsidy from corporate supply/generation to consumer storage ....

I'm torn on govt support. I'm (clearly) a huge supporter of our govt joining all the others to offer FiT and give PV the demand/supply leg up it needed to compete with FF's. But it's a trickier argument with batteries.

PV just couldn't break through, hence the need to help. But batts are already there on the tiny scale with off-gridders (mostly FLA's), and thanks to the large production needed for EV's are now almost there for Li-ion in some markets for grid-tied applications.

If the market is big enough to sustain growth and thereby falling prices in grid tied batteries, then it should work out fine naturally. But it will take a little longer.

Time was a major issue for PV support, but for batteries, less so. In the UK peak demand is being tackled in many ways, and has already been reduced by a significant amount, presumably due to efficiency improvements in lighting, tellys, fridges and freezers, and also house insulation for leccy heated properties. There may also be a small impact from demand side wind generation too, which would show up as reduced demand.

We've also got a slow burn programme of building more pumped storage, which is more cost efficient at the moment and should start soon.

So, whilst PV (with storage) could help with GMT peaks (5pm to 7pm) I don't see too much need, until PV generation (and wind) are producing more than can comfortably be used at the time of generation.

There is also another consideration. A year or two back I read an American report that argued that storage may be more expensive than simply building too much wind and solar, and then capping generation during peaks. Though I suspect that argument depends entirely on the relative costs of storage v's generation, and it needs to be remembered that large grid-scale storage can be used throughout the day/year to catch any excess generation, since it's not tied to any one form of generation.

Given the huge number of pre-orders that Tesla are taking, especially for their larger Powerpack batteries, I reckon we can just sit back and watch as current demand pushes down prices over the next few years, which in turn increases demand (in areas that were previously just short of viable), which increases supply, reduces prices, and so on, and so on.

If we're very optimistic, PV may reach disruptive levels (sunny Sunday afternoon in June) by 2025. By which time rolling out new PV with storage may be viable ...... I don't really know?

Mart.

Martyn1981

Martyn1981 wrote: »

If we're very optimistic, PV may reach disruptive levels (sunny Sunday afternoon in June) by 2025. By which time rolling out new PV with storage may be viable ...... I don't really know?

I should probably clarify that statement. The cheapest way to integrate PV and storage would probably be a hybrid inverter that monitors export and diverts excess into batteries. It then releases stored energy when needed. So PV inverter, battery inverter, charge controller and demand/export monitoring all rolled into one.

But .... this would place the batteries before the TGM. So for older, and higher FiT rates, the battery conversion loss of perhaps 5 to 10% would have a significant impact on FiT income. In my case, if I could use 1,000kWh of stored leccy, I'd need to put approx 1,100kWh into the batteries. Resulting in FiT losses on that 100kWh.

Not so important for my WNW system at 20p, or new installs at 13.39p (soon to be 12.92p). In 10 years time, if the current degression programme doesn't change, then FiT rates will be 8.5p at most, and have little relevance to an integrated PV + storage rollout.

So for older systems, it may be better to install the batts (and charge controller, and two way inverter) after the TGM with a 'simple' diversion switch approach monitoring export. But this system would be slightly less efficient overall.

Mart.

zeupater

Martyn1981 wrote: »

... Given the huge number of pre-orders that Tesla are taking, especially for their larger Powerpack batteries, I reckon we can just sit back and watch as current demand pushes down prices over the next few years, which in turn increases demand (in areas that were previously just short of viable), which increases supply, reduces prices, and so on, and so on ....

Hi Mart

In the case of the larger system - well, that seems to be a different animal altogether, not designed for daily deep cycling, but as a backup designed for occasional/weekly cycling. As such I see this being suitable for very remote rural areas where weather has a greater than average effect or areas of the world which suffer regular power generation failures. Although 10kWp storage at the Tesla levels is good if the expected battery life is believable, a shrewd business has been able to source a ~10kVA/60minute UPS (MGE etc) with various computer interfaces and a 5-8 year battery life expectancy for ~£5k(+VAT) for a number of years, so it's not really a massive value step change ...

Regarding the subsidy for daily storage, I don't really see the demand anywhere growing to a level which would seriously drive prices down without an initial subsidy ... that's effectively what Musk will be looking for, a change which will switch focus from generation to a form of integrated micro-generation+storage ...

It must be remembered that the daily cycle storage offering isn't only suitable for use with micro-generation ... yes it's more expensive than grid scale demand smoothing, but it's deliverable in a fully effective form to a very short timescale (Weeks vs Decades) ... soaking up cheap overnight (ie excess capacity) energy and effectively using it to track daytime household demand would go a long way towards introducing subsidy competition into the power generation market ....

HTH
Z