Effect of the election on the FTSE

Ryan_Futuristics

verybigchris wrote: »

cover up the x-axis and see if you can pinpoint election dates by spikes in the graph (spoiler: you can't, because there aren't any)

No?



"On average the market has risen two months before an election, with an average return of 0.32%. But after that the returns in the following three months are all negative, with the second month after the election seeing an average return of -1.3%."
http://stockmarketalmanac.co.uk/2015/02/the-uk-stock-market-in-general-election-years/

But admittedly there are bigger things out there (although I think any SNP coalition could spark some significant capital flight from the FTSE ... I know it's almost 80% exposed to foreign markets, but it's all about investor sentiment)


And a preemptive apology to bowlhead99 for posting more "data" and "facts" - I know they're not appreciated round here

coastline

World markets are pushing to all time highs today and could well push further before a breather.If this comes in the next few weeks I would guess the UK market will track sideways or underperform until the election is resolved but not by much.
Theres not much between the two main parties so I doubt the markets will be too concerned.

Just before the banking crisis in 2007 the Tories were backing Labours spending plans and set out their own projections for 3 years 2007-2010.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/6975536.stm

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/1562023/Tories-vow-to-match-Labour-spending.html

They knew that Labour had ran a deficit from the year 2002 yet they were planning the same spending budget.

https://nickthornsby.files.wordpress.com/2011/09/deficit.png

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bR_hfQU-4r0

Funny how its all Labours fault since...;)

coastline

From 1992 to 1997 the national debt doubled yet Labour hadn't been in power since 1978.
Funny how its only the Tories that can handle money..;)

http://www.ukpublicspending.co.uk/spending_chart_1992_1997UKb_14c1li111mcn_G0t

dunstonh

Funny how its all Labours fault since...

Although the Conservatives would not have grown the public sector as Labour did or likely have given the same pay rises. A legacy that will take generations to fix.

matching spending plans in certain areas is just one very small bit of the overall jigsaw

From 1992 to 1997 the national debt doubled yet Labour hadn't been in power since 1978.

And no doubt you will recall what a basket case this country was in 1978. You cannot turn around a country in a few years. That is not to say they didnt make mistakes but you cant pick out little bits like that in a massive economy.

coastline

dunstonh wrote: »

Although the Conservatives would not have grown the public sector as Labour did or likely have given the same pay rises. A legacy that will take generations to fix.

matching spending plans in certain areas is just one very small bit of the overall jigsaw



And no doubt you will recall what a basket case this country was in 1978. You cannot turn around a country in a few years. That is not to say they didnt make mistakes but you cant pick out little bits like that in a massive economy.

The main point is the shadow chancellor of the Tory party announced to the world that the Tories were going to spend the same as Labour knowing they had just borrowed around £150bn in a growing economy.Figures in the link show £615bn rising to £674bn in 2010 and this would have led to the same result as today.
They have changed their tune since suggesting they would run a surplus in future years yet theres very little evidence to show that.Looks like theres only been a handfull in the last 60 years.

https://nickthornsby.files.wordpress.com/2011/09/deficit.png

gadgetmind

coastline wrote: »

World markets are pushing to all time highs today

Not in real terms, which are the only ones that matter.

coastline

gadgetmind wrote: »

Not in real terms, which are the only ones that matter.

Just wait until the crash when Labour gets in...then you can buy the dip..:)

gadgetmind

If Labour get in, we're talking more long term slump than ephemeral dip.

talexuser

Glen_Clark wrote: »

You have to remember the right wing press always mock the leader of the Labour party.

Foot would have made an excellent Oxford Don or political philosopher, but hardly anyone imagined him as prime minister (he oversaw the "longest suicide note in history" as manifesto). Kinnock was a blowhard windbag and hypocrite to boot, from being Tribune leftie to Baron Bedwellty and a well paid living for him, his wife and family as Eurocrats once he'd been rejected here. People do not need a right wing press for indoctrination, what they see and hear from the horses mouth on tv is enough, hence the personal ratings for Miliband and Clegg.

Thrugelmir

coastline wrote: »

The main point is the shadow chancellor of the Tory party announced to the world that the Tories were going to spend the same as Labour knowing they had just borrowed around £150bn in a growing economy.

History tells us that the Tories didn't get elected. Brown and Balls continued to mismanage the UK economy with vast overspending on the welfare state and light touch regulation of the financial services sector. That almost brought the UK to its knees.