Effect of the election on the FTSE

talexuser

I can't see how any party plans to gets us out of the mountain of debt. The coalition has broken every promise they made on debt reduction, and achieved nothing for a significant structural revival of the economy to pay our way in the world. Voting labour assumes you're happy to see some geeky adenoidal sixth former as prime minister to send up against Putin, with a Balls-up chancellor who oversaw the destruction of the British economy while in the treasury.
Protest votes will be the winners in this election since people are so disillusioned with the repeated failure of conventional politics to improve their lives, so a majority government looks unlikely at this point in time.

Archi_Bald

talexuser wrote: »

Protest votes will be the winners in this election

Protest votes would be the ones that have the power to create proper chaos. I am not sure there would be any winners as surely nobody could wish chaos on their country? May be I have too much confidence in human intelligence.....

JohnRo

The bank run financial market's journey down the rabbit hole and the real economy most folks live with day by day, have already disconnected, conflating the two seems to be a misconception, deliberately by some.

When or if they will ever reconnect is anyone's guess.

Ryan_Futuristics

Labour win: 10% market correction
Conservative win: we'll edge over 7000

It's all sentiment in the short-term ... Personally I think the 10% correction might be preferable at this stage

longleggedhair

Archi_Bald wrote: »

Protest votes would be the ones that have the power to create proper chaos. I am not sure there would be any winners as surely nobody could wish chaos on their country? May be I have too much confidence in human intelligence.....

Totally agree Arci. Many people don't seem to understand that because of our election system in all but a few seats the only votes that count are Labour or Conservative.

2010

The bookies have it as:
No overall majority 1/5
Tories 11/2
Lab 9/1
UKIP 66/1
Libs 500/1

With so much uncertainty the markets are bound to "wobble".

Whether you "sell in May and come back on St. Leger`s day" leaves you open to missing any upturn when and if it happens.
I would think the most likely outcome will be the Tories forming the next government with who knows who.

Ryan_Futuristics

Holding tight through uncertainty is usually the best idea - we always overestimate risk, and decisions like this are why the average investor only returns about 2%

Rather: see the fact the market overreacts to this risk as a potential buying opportunity, and increase your position or rebalance if it swings that way

Rational investing

purdyoaten

2010 wrote: »

I would think the most likely outcome will be the Tories forming the next government with who knows who.

Getting more difficult to see how they can reach 323!

Their seats will go down, Lib Dems will certainly go down. The DUP could come into play!

Labour has more possibilities - coalition with SNP or with SNP and Lib Dems. My money is on the latter with a short parliament with all three current leaders gone by the next election - however soon that may be!

Glen_Clark

talexuser wrote: »

Voting labour assumes you're happy to see some geeky adenoidal sixth former as prime minister

You have to remember the right wing press always mock the leader of the Labour party, except for Tory Blair because as Thatcher said 'He's one of us', and the Tory party were so mired in sleaze as to be indefensible at that time.
I remember what they did to Michael Foot and Neil Kinnock. Foot was a very intelligent man, but all we heard of was his dress sense. People who were there said Kinnock's speech at the Brighton conference was the best they have ever heard. Then he went out on the beach and tried to dodge a wave, falling '*rse over tit' into the sea in his 'best suit'. Of course the papers were full of that, nothing about his speech or policies at all.
What Milliband is really like I don't know. But I doubt he is quite the Pillock depicted in the right wing press.

verybigchris

Nothing major will happen.

The major parties are indistinguishable, nobody's going to be making drastic policy changes, and the FTSE is more affected by global events anyway.

The run up to every election has had people predicting doom and gloom in the markets, but take a long-term graph of the FTSE, cover up the x-axis and see if you can pinpoint election dates by spikes in the graph (spoiler: you can't, because there aren't any).

Leave the scaremongering to MoneyWeek.