Surviving the coming bank crisis

Ryan_Futuristics

TheTracker wrote: »

I'm never quite sure what planet you're on. Five minutes googling Woodford headlines ...

2011 Invest Now "I've been in this business 25 years and only seen an opportunity like this once before – after the technology bubble"

2012 Crash "The current wave of optimism sweeping global stock markets assumes that the developed world will now emerge from the period of low economic growth it has faced since the banking crisis of 2008. Our view is that it will not, and that growth will continue to disappoint and, in the near term, will slow in 2012. ... underlying weakness of Continental Europe is likely to get worse"

2013 Invest Now "the tobacco sector as a whole continues to offer attractive and dependable growth opportunities"

2014 Crash "we are due a major market correction ... indices are pregnant with risk"

The bits in bold obviously aren't quotes - they're what subeditors write

Surely it can't have escaped you that you've selected Woodford articles which were proven correct?

2011's market correction was a buying opportunity that would've made you 20-30% the following years
2012 is when the Eurozone's problems surfaced
2013 was a great time to buy tobacco shares
2014 we saw a correction - but Japanese and Eurozone QE prospects possibly staved off the one we're due
Are you sure you're not on Neil Woodford's payroll?

dealer_wins

OP dont worry you will still get your benefits and meds.

Gadfium

Ryan_Futuristics wrote: »

What I'd say with Woodford is (unlike a lot of fund managers)

Good to have you back Ryan...this place was missing a few graphs and mentions of Woodford.

If he's that good how come you have your money in cash and P2P?

Ryan_Futuristics wrote: »

It's cash and patience over here, with a side order of P2P lending to tide us over

Ryan_Futuristics wrote: »

I also think P2P lending (I use Funding Circle and RateSetter) is a very good way to diversify and shelter capital from market movements now ... There are certain unknowns - so I try not to go over 10-15% in P2P lending myself - but it looks like P2P could be a very good alternative investment ... Woodford's considering investing directly now ... I'd just treat it with some caution, and diversify and spread risk as much as possible ... I get 6% with RateSetter and 7.3 (although at the moment it's over 10, as I've not had bad debts yet) with Funding Circle

Though I'm a bit confused how this conflicts with these posts:

Ryan_Futuristics wrote: »

Depending how the rates rise, and whether investors get spooked and clamber for the exits, bond funds *may* be vulnerable to a drop in capital ... It's enough of a potential worry for me not to hold any at the moment (instead I've got about 10% of my portfolio in Funding Circle, earning about 7-8% interest ... But obviously P2P lending is a relatively new thing, so I'm not keen to commit too much to it - but on the surface it looks like a good alternative to bond funds)

Ryan_Futuristics wrote: »

Yeah, I just got started with RateSetter - I've dripped money in in £300 chunks,

Ryan_Futuristics wrote: »

I've only just dipped my toes in with P2P lending - I put a few £thousand in a week or two ago just to see how it works ... So maybe there is still something I'm missing

Serious question....are there multiple people posting using the same username?

Ryan_Futuristics

Gadfium wrote: »

Good to have you back Ryan...this place was missing a few graphs and mentions of Woodford.

If he's that good how come you have your money in cash and P2P?

Though I'm a bit confused how this conflicts with these posts:

Serious question....are there multiple people posting using the same username?

Ah, I think what you're seeing there is the result of a thing called 'time' ... Whereby situations and events progress from one stage to another ... Posts on this forum are written at different points in time (rather than all appearing at once ... as it may appear if you've not used forums before)

Here's a timeline of my progression with P2P lending:

- Invest cautiously in Funding Circle ... See how it works

- This seems very straightforward ... I'll put more money in ... I get close to the 10% allocation I see fund managers in the US are favouring

- Caution as I read about possible taxation issues from bad debt ... I decide I'll spread my lending a little, and lower platform risk

- I put a few £hundred in RateSetter (lending to individuals) to see how it works ... I think it's very reasonable, and the returns are better than advertised

- With RateSetter's backup fund, I feel slightly more confident to increase my target allocation to P2P lending (aiming for a 2:1 ratio between FC and RS)

And on why I don't invest more in Woodford right now ... a) There's not been a buying opportunity (it's 12% up since I invested and barely dipped), b) The UK markets may be overvalued (so there may be a better market opportunity), c) I'm likely to increase my UK a allocation anyway when Woodford's patient capital fund launches

Lovely to see you too - plenty more graphs and data to bring to this disordered, superstitious community

Gadfium

Ryan_Futuristics wrote: »

Ah, I think what you're seeing there is the result of a thing called 'time' ... Whereby situations and events progress from one stage to another ... Posts on this forum are written at different points in time (rather than all appearing at once ... as it may appear if you've not used forums before)

So a complete change since November 2014 then? Less than 4 months and you move from the markets into cash.?

Linton

Ryan_Futuristics wrote: »

And on why I don't invest more in Woodford right now ... a) There's not been a buying opportunity (it's 12% up since I invested and barely dipped), .......

That's what happens if you wait for a "buying opportunity". So if you had a 5% dip you would buy at a higher price than you could have got a few months ago?

TheTracker

Gadfium wrote: »

So a complete change since November 2014 then? Less than 4 months and you move from the markets into cash.?

I think the short answer to this is yes. I began enjoying watching RFs posts when I realised my presumption that he was being deceptive and trollike was unfairly based on the assumption that he was not a new investor. However, all evidence (4 months of postings) leads to the conclusion he is a newcomer to strategic investing, having flailed around previously on what he later realised were foolhardy endeavors and what we witness here is an investor being born as surely as dust accretes around a star into planets.

I've traced his portfolio positions here, and I should probably update it with what we have learnt in the last few weeks. For instance, he previously said Woodford was 12%, now he says 10%, possibly by adding to whatever is this months CAPE du jour.

Gadfium

TheTracker wrote: »

I think the short answer to this is yes. I began enjoying watching RFs posts when I realised my presumption that he was being deceptive and trollike was unfairly based on the assumption that he was not a new investor. However, all evidence (4 months of postings) leads to the conclusion he is a newcomer to strategic investing, having flailed around previously on what he later realised were foolhardy endeavors and what we witness here is an investor being born as surely as dust accretes around a star into planets.

I've traced his portfolio positions here, and I should probably update it with what we have learnt in the last few weeks. For instance, he previously said Woodford was 12%, now he says 10%, possibly by adding to whatever is this months CAPE du jour.

Ah, i missed that. I'll have a butchers now.

masonic

TheTracker wrote: »

I think the short answer to this is yes. I began enjoying watching RFs posts when I realised my presumption that he was being deceptive and trollike was unfairly based on the assumption that he was not a new investor. However, all evidence (4 months of postings) leads to the conclusion he is a newcomer to strategic investing, having flailed around previously on what he later realised were foolhardy endeavors and what we witness here is an investor being born as surely as dust accretes around a star into planets.

In some ways I hope that's true. Had he long held his conviction that the US market was overvalued and due a correction because it's CAPE is >15, it means he'd have probably sold up any US holdings in mid-2009 (after holding for a brief period), missing out on the market delivering 160% returns (or 16% annualised) between then and now. He was originally talking about people selling their US stocks and buying into GVAL (or something similar) instead, which, if he'd invested in himself would have left him nursing a 20% loss today.

Now obviously there will be a point at which US equities tumble and GVAL recovers (if it survives the next couple of years), but the signs that were used to prophesise the respective fall and rise of these assets have been there for a while and like many prophecies, we don't know when these things will come to pass. In the mean time, 160% in gains is a fair cushion against a subsequent fall, so selling up promptly when the US apparently started showing signs of being overvalued, and buying into GVAL because it only contained the most undervalued stocks that would surely rise, would have led to an opportunity loss (and actual loss in the latter case) that has given the LTBH investor a huge advantage when judgement day comes. This is why I try not to be too influenced by the soothsayers when they come along, even when they have a pretty graph to counter every objection to their predictions.

TheTracker

masonic wrote: »

In some ways I hope that's true. Had he long held his conviction that the US market was overvalued and due a correction because it's CAPE is >15, it means he'd have probably sold up any US holdings in mid-2009 (after holding for a brief period), missing out on the market delivering 160% returns (or 16% annualised) between then and now. He was originally talking about people selling their US stocks and buying into GVAL (or something similar) instead, which, if he'd invested in himself would have left him nursing a 20% loss today.

I enjoyed this recent video (jump to 0:40) of Shiller (CAPE populariser) saying yeah, US CAPE is crazy high at 27, but it's not like I've pulled my personal money out of US equities.