Paul Hodges: UK house prices to fall 50% in global ‘Great Unwinding’

chucknorris

lisyloo wrote: »

If new BTL entrants decline and the supply of rented accomodation declines, then doesn't that mean more property is available for owner occupiers and therefore there are fewer renters.
Could it be neutral? (all other things being equal).

I think that is very hard to call, the thing about London is that there is a very large rental market. Not just because people can't afford to buy, but also because not everyone wants to (or can) buy there. There are a lot of people who work there and either suspect that they won't be there for that many years, or they just don't know. Also they just don't know what part of London that they want to live in, long term, when they first arrive, that was certainly the case for me. I knew that I wanted to buy, but had no idea where, so I rented a place for 6 months first.

MrRee_2

In the meantime, house prices just still keep on rising ....... you simply can't lose on bricks n mortar!

Generali

chucknorris wrote: »

You have reminded me and reinforced that I shouldn't wait too long. But it is quite difficult to switch from an 'investing for your future approach', to a 'spend spend spend approach'.

Phased selling is a good plan. It mitigates your risks a lot.

mwpt

chucknorris wrote: »

I'm taking my first step next summer, when I retire from work (I've already told them I'm retiring). Probably as my leisure time increases, it will also naturally lead to more spending, especially if my wife retires the following year, as that opens the door to spending winters in Spain and/or the Algarve.

Have you considered part time work? One consideration for me has been to reach a point where I could move into a three day working week. I actually still enjoy working but would love more free time, so at the moment that seems like a good option. I may feel differently as I get older.

TheBlueHorse

chucknorris wrote: »

I don't have any children, so the money needs to be spent

Not necessarily, you can keep investing and then leave it to me. I will step in, out of the goodness of my heart.


It's win win. You get to keep investing, which you love - and i'll get a huge chuck of cash/assets when the sad time comes, which I love (I'm talking of the cash not your demise!)


You're welcome.

chucknorris

Generali wrote: »

Phased selling is a good plan. It mitigates your risks a lot.

My main risks (that reduce profits rather than cause a loss) are a major works bill on my 3 leasehold flats or a change to the letting relief against capital gains tax. The yield isn't that much higher than dividend income on 2 x 2 bed flats that I own, so I may (leaning towards probably) sell one of these as nearly as next year.

lisyloo

Have you considered part time work?

It's a good suggestion considering that some people do literally drop dead at retirement and we all need some activity both mentally and physically.

I guess it depends on whether you love what you do and also whether your career allow part time working.
Plenty of ways to carry on being active in a hobby or voluntary capacity.

chucknorris

mwpt wrote: »

Have you considered part time work? One consideration for me has been to reach a point where I could move into a three day working week. I actually still enjoy working but would love more free time, so at the moment that seems like a good option. I may feel differently as I get older.

I'm already working at 80%, I did ask to further reduce, but they want me to carry on at 80%, so that isn't an option. I'm a lecturer and we are currently going through a 5 year review (and it is a significant one too), all of my modules will change in September 2016. This means quite a lot of work over next summer, so it is a 'no brainer' to leave next summer.

chucknorris

lisyloo wrote: »

It's a good suggestion considering that some people do literally drop dead at retirement and we all need some activity both mentally and physically.

I guess it depends on whether you love what you do and also whether your career allow part time working.
Plenty of ways to carry on being active in a hobby or voluntary capacity.

During the semesters I do not have enough time to train in all 3 disciplines of the triathlon, so swimming and cycling tend to take a back seat. It will be great to have enough free time to train more regularly and hopefully get to a standard that I am happy enough with to enter a triathlon. On top of that I have bowls and chess, and we also want to spend winters in Spain and/or the Algarve, we can't do this while we are working (even part time).

mwpt

chucknorris wrote: »

I'm already working at 80%, I did ask to further reduce, but they want me to carry on at 80%, so that isn't an option. I'm a lecturer and we are currently going through a 5 year review (and it is a significant one too), all of my modules will change in September 2016. This means quite a lot of work over next summer, so it is a 'no brainer' to leave next summer.

Ah, fair enough.

I've played rugby all my life so at some point I want to become involved in coaching rugby. That is a dream for me, especially at junior level where I think I see ways to really improve coaching techniques.

I've also got a number of pet tech projects which I work on when I have free time. I'll continue to do so. One day, one might make me money, but if not, I've enjoyed them anyway.

Another for me in the future (when financially secure) is to move out of my primary career and perhaps look at teaching (maths, science). This seemed attractive at one point but after hearing a lot of horror stories I think I'd only do it in a decent private school. That is win win because I could coach rugby too.

Another option is to learn a technical trade of some sort and work when I want.

Or, just grow the vegetables in my garden in South of France and enjoy the sun!