Syrzia Won!

N1AK

ruggedtoast wrote: »

In spite of all the brinkmanship it would be disastrous for the Euro project if Greece defaults.

I'm inclined towards the opposite conclusion. If the Eurozone lets Greece do anything like what Syrzia promised without kicking them out of the € it will do them far more harm.

The eurozone could survive Greece leaving. However, if Syrzia goes ahead with its promises and gets away with it, why wouldn't voters in Spain and Italy decide to do the same? Let Greece crash and burn for rejecting the terms they agreed to with the other € states and it will serve to strengthen the resolve of the remaining members.

purch

Generali wrote: »

Strictly speaking it'll be a bunch of Cyrillic characters so neither is right!

Thanks for putting me right though.

I should have put Olympiacos :eek:

wotsthat

N1AK wrote: »

I'm inclined towards the opposite conclusion. If the Eurozone lets Greece do anything like what Syrzia promised without kicking them out of the € it will do them far more harm.

The eurozone could survive Greece leaving. However, if Syrzia goes ahead with its promises and gets away with it, why wouldn't voters in Spain and Italy decide to do the same? Let Greece crash and burn for rejecting the terms they agreed to with the other € states and it will serve to strengthen the resolve of the remaining members.

The danger for the project is that Greece default and don't crash and burn. Given the low base and already some signs of improvement it's got to be a possibility.

What would Italian voters make of Greece defaulting and thriving as a result?

Graham_Devon

wotsthat wrote: »

The danger for the project is that Greece default and don't crash and burn. Given the low base and already some signs of improvement it's got to be a possibility.

What would Italian voters make of Greece defaulting and thriving as a result?

They need another bailout just to get through the next couple of months.

I somehow doubt it's a possibility that they can grow their way out of their current problems in that timeframe.

antrobus

Graham_Devon wrote: »

They need another bailout just to get through the next couple of months.

I somehow doubt it's a possibility that they can grow their way out of their current problems in that timeframe.

They might need one now. But Greece was back in the bond markets last year.

N1AK

wotsthat wrote: »

The danger for the project is that Greece default and don't crash and burn. Given the low base and already some signs of improvement it's got to be a possibility.

What would Italian voters make of Greece defaulting and thriving as a result?

I agree absolutely, though if your option is gradual collapse by allowing Greece free reign to change its terms, or the risk of collapse if Greece does well out of leaving then the choice is still easy.

Their is a view that Greece can't get worse, even with a default. I'm not sure that's true. Greece gets around €450 per citizen from the EU each year, it's currency will be a vastly devalued joke, there will be huge price inflation because of it and we don't yet know what it defaulting on its debts when leaving the EU would result in.

Do you think the IMF/ECB/WMF are going to jump to offer Greece loans, when Greece just stuck two fingers up at them all and defaulted on the last lot?

Marktheshark

Iceland proved you can stick two fingers up to the banks and nothing really changes.

N1AK

Graham_Devon wrote: »

They need another bailout just to get through the next couple of months.

I somehow doubt it's a possibility that they can grow their way out of their current problems in that timeframe.

If they leave the Euro they will do so as part of declaring bankruptcy. This can work out well for countries, vs continuing on in a doomed deathmarch, but I don't think Greece is in that position.

Marktheshark

Iceland took the stance that the "value" of this debt is held and secured against the future Labour of its people.
If they tell the banks to get stuffed, they still have the asset.
Clever people those Icelandic.

Thrugelmir

jjlandlord wrote: »

Do the Greeks realise that they have chosen a party whose program is suicide if carried out?

If you've been living through difficult times for 5 years. Would you care a toss? Particularly by EU bureaucrats being paid a fortune. Militancy is on the rise. As the real issues are being side stepped in the name of harmony and keeping the EU together, In years gone by the currency would have been devalued. Now it's in a straight jacket.