Better Buy Gold

Gadfium

pop_gun wrote: »

BIB

We know gold is scarce because countries like Germany have requested their gold be repatriated from the U.S. Only to be told it would take 7 years for the request to be completed.
We also know gold manipulation has been going on for decades. When Gordon Brown sold 400 tonnes of UK gold he announced it to the markets before hand. This resulted in the price of gold hitting a 20 year low. You and I wouldn't intentionally sell something hoping to get the least amount for it. But Gordon Brown did, and he did so to keep the price of gold from going up.
A high gold price reflects the inherent folly of a fiat monetary system.
It stands to reason if gold is scarce and has no viable alternative, then the price must rise. The fact is the fundamentals for gold are the same now as they were at it's peak in 2011. The only way the gold price should fall, is if the commodities market had been supplied with more gold a la Gordon Brown's 'get 'em cheap' gold sale. Real gold supply wasn't available, but paper gold in the form of ETFs were.
The amount of fake gold contracts could be increased and used to manipulate the real price of gold.

The stock market can't be relied upon when it allows things to be traded that don't actually exist.

racing_blue

pop_gun wrote: »

Your claim the FTSE would return 70% on it's worse trading day is supposing we all had a crystal ball and knew which stocks and shares would outperform the market on said day. If I had a crystal ball wouldn't it be better to get the winning lottery numbers?

I think you have missed the point JimJames was making.

If you

1) had bought all the shares in the FTSE100 on the index's very most expensive day in history in 1999

and

2) held on to them ever since, reinvesting all the dividends you were paid

and

3) done nothing else

then

4) your investments would now be worth about 70% more than they were initially - even though the index is lower than it was at the start

Ta-da

pop_gun

jimjames wrote: »

Amongst all the froth about stock markets and headlines about index up or down what seems to be forgotten is that you're buying part of that business.

Unlike gold, companies want to make a profit and grow, that then feeds through to their owners over time. Yes there's a risk the company might fail but ultimately understanding what a share is would help people and their perception of stock markets.

BIB

Why do people's perception of the stock market need to change?

Haven't enough investors lost their entire savings and a large part of their pensions to the stock market already?

All of them were looking for modest returns, yet ended up lining some else's pocket.

There are no more easy marks, JJ.

DiggerUK

racing_blue wrote: »

I think you have missed the point JimJames was making...............

No, pop_corn has not missed the point, pc is a conspiracy nut. Talking common sense to such jokers is a waste of time.
..._

gadgetmind

pop_gun wrote: »

Haven't enough investors lost their entire savings and a large part of their pensions to the stock market?

How, exactly, did they manage to do that?

I've been investing into (mainly) equities since the late 80s, and my shirt is fully intact.

gadgetmind

racing_blue wrote: »

4) your investments would now be worth about 70% more than they were initially - even though the index is lower than it was at the start

Here are the numbers.

Dec30 1999, FTSE 100=6930, FTSE 100 TR=3141 * (Dot com crash high. Reached 6950.6 during day.)
Mar12 2003, FTSE 100=3287, FTSE 100 TR=1624 * (Dot com crash low)
Jan30 2006, FTSE 100=5780, FTSE 100 TR=3141
Jun15 2007, FTSE 100=6732, FTSE 100 TR=3851 * (Pre credit crisis high)
Oct12 2007, FTSE 100=6730, FTSE 100 TR=3889
Mar3 2009, FTSE 100=3512, FTSE 100 TR=2147 * (Credit crisis low)
Feb8 2011, FTSE 100=6091, FTSE 100 TR=3987 * (Inter crisis high)
Sep22 2011, FTSE 100=5041, FTSE 100 TR=3387 * (Sovereign debt crisis low. Fell below 5000 briefly next day)
Aug17 2012, FTSE 100=5852, FTSE 100 TR=4077
Dec19 2012, FTSE 100=5972, FTSE 100 TR=4198
Feb3 2013, FTSE 100=6347, FTSE 100 TR=4466
Apr10 2013, FTSE 100=6387, FTSE 100 TR=4539
Feb24 2014, FTSE 100=6866, FTSE 100 TR=5029 * (Highest close since 1999? Beaten in May and Sept?)
May9 2014, FTSE 100=6815, FTSE 100 TR=5039
Jun30 2014, FTSE 100=6744, FTSE 100 TR=5014
Jul31 2014, FTSE 100=6730, FTSE 100 TR=5008
Aug29 2014, FTSE 100=6820, FTSE 100 TR=5111
Sep30 2014, FTSE 100=6623, FTSE 100 TR=4969
Oct31 2014, FTSE 100=6546, FTSE 100 TR=4920


Notice how quickly the Total Return index recovers from market dips/crashes, and how far in advance of the 1999 figure it is.

Of course, someone who didn't invest it all on "day 1" and has instead been drip-feeding into the market, willl have been buying in the dips as well as at the peaks, and will have done much better.

chucknorris

pop_gun wrote: »

Jim Rickards: well, I would ask that investor how would they feel about losing 30% of their money. That's the history of the stock market.

I'd say, you haven't lost anything until you sell it and lock in that loss. For example in the recent property correction our property had fallen in value by about £1m in 2009 (from peak), but we didn't sell, now it has risen by about £1.25m (from peak) and in the meantime (and also currently) our rental profits increased, due to lower interest rates. So I don't really see any problem with 30% falls, in fact it is an opportunity to invest further at lower prices, for me that's the whole point of corrections, they are a buying opportunity. I won't invest any more in property because of my age (I'm 57), but I am investing in equities for additional retirement income, I wouldn't touch gold, I don't see what it can do for me.

le_loup

Gosh! You really have got a problem with reality.
If you want to hold gold and ignore all the advice not to, feel free but it really is not the best thing since sliced bread for most people.

gadgetmind

And gold hasn't ever lost 30% of its value?

Gadfium

pop_gun wrote: »

BIB

Why do people's perception of the stock market need to change?

Because with their next breath they spout BS like this:

pop_gun wrote: »

BIB
Haven't enough investors lost their entire savings and a large part of their pensions to the stock market already?
All of them were looking for modest returns, yet ended up lining some else's pocket.

What about people that bought gold when it was £1,151 per ounce in September 2011? They've "lost" 30% in less than 3 years.

What you are doing is displaying a confirmation bias (along with an unhealthy dose of conspiracy theory belief). In other words you are only seeing what supports your belief. Anything that contradicts your belief is either distorted such as this

pop_gun wrote: »

Your claim the FTSE would return 70% on it's worse trading day is supposing we all had a crystal ball and knew which stocks and shares would outperform the market on said day. If I had a crystal ball wouldn't it be better to get the winning lottery numbers?

or ignored such as this:

gadgetmind wrote: »

Here are the numbers.

Dec30 1999, FTSE 100=6930, FTSE 100 TR=3141 * (Dot com crash high. Reached 6950.6 during day.)
Mar12 2003, FTSE 100=3287, FTSE 100 TR=1624 * (Dot com crash low)
Jan30 2006, FTSE 100=5780, FTSE 100 TR=3141
Jun15 2007, FTSE 100=6732, FTSE 100 TR=3851 * (Pre credit crisis high)
Oct12 2007, FTSE 100=6730, FTSE 100 TR=3889
Mar3 2009, FTSE 100=3512, FTSE 100 TR=2147 * (Credit crisis low)
Feb8 2011, FTSE 100=6091, FTSE 100 TR=3987 * (Inter crisis high)
Sep22 2011, FTSE 100=5041, FTSE 100 TR=3387 * (Sovereign debt crisis low. Fell below 5000 briefly next day)
Aug17 2012, FTSE 100=5852, FTSE 100 TR=4077
Dec19 2012, FTSE 100=5972, FTSE 100 TR=4198
Feb3 2013, FTSE 100=6347, FTSE 100 TR=4466
Apr10 2013, FTSE 100=6387, FTSE 100 TR=4539
Feb24 2014, FTSE 100=6866, FTSE 100 TR=5029 * (Highest close since 1999? Beaten in May and Sept?)
May9 2014, FTSE 100=6815, FTSE 100 TR=5039
Jun30 2014, FTSE 100=6744, FTSE 100 TR=5014
Jul31 2014, FTSE 100=6730, FTSE 100 TR=5008
Aug29 2014, FTSE 100=6820, FTSE 100 TR=5111
Sep30 2014, FTSE 100=6623, FTSE 100 TR=4969
Oct31 2014, FTSE 100=6546, FTSE 100 TR=4920


Notice how quickly the Total Return index recovers from market dips/crashes, and how far in advance of the 1999 figure it is.

Of course, someone who didn't invest it all on "day 1" and has instead been drip-feeding into the market, willl have been buying in the dips as well as at the peaks, and will have done much better.