Salmond and Sturgeon Want the English Fish for More Fat Subsidies

Generali

Shakethedisease wrote: »

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/mar/11/everything-were-hearing-about-this-election-feels-like-spam-email

The Guardian piece about the Conservatives in England is rubbish. It's an advert like this one:



It is designed to appeal to the fears of floating voters. If we accept that the SNP is to the left of Labour, there will be plenty of people who partly agree with Labour's policies but find most of the SNP's policies too far left for them to vote for. It's another part of the process known as occupying the centre ground. If they can portray a Labour Government as being very left leaning, for example as they will be in a coalition with the left wing SNP, fewer people will vote for them.

The Conservatives are trying a similar tactic with UKIP. Vote UKIP get Labour:

https://twitter.com/conservativeswm/status/567578241523654656



This is subtly different of course. The message here is that the Conservatives have some similar, albeit more moderate, policies to UKIP so you can get some of what you want by voting for us whereas a vote for UKIP means you get a little of what you want plus a load of stuff you really don't want.

Shakethedisease

Generali wrote: »

The Guardian piece about the Conservatives in England is rubbish. It's an advert like this one:



It is designed to appeal to the fears of floating voters. If we accept that the SNP is to the left of Labour, there will be plenty of people who partly agree with Labour's policies but find most of the SNP's policies too far left for them to vote for. It's another part of the process known as occupying the centre ground. If they can portray a Labour Government as being very left leaning, for example as they will be in a coalition with the left wing SNP, fewer people will vote for them.

The Conservatives are trying a similar tactic with UKIP. Vote UKIP get Labour:

https://twitter.com/conservativeswm/status/567578241523654656

This is subtly different of course. The message here is that the Conservatives have some similar, albeit more moderate, policies to UKIP so you can get some of what you want by voting for us whereas a vote for UKIP means you get a little of what you want plus a load of stuff you really don't want.

The two 'big' parties are starting to lose all hope of a majority for themselves. Hence all the 'Vote SNP, get Tory' and 'Vote Labour', get SNP' 'Vote UKIP, get Labour', 'Vote Green, get Tory'... neither of them seem to want to stand on a platform of what to vote for in terms of their own policies. Truly depressing stuff. And the fact that both of them are struggling to even garner 35% of the electorate 50 odd days before a general election is just an awful state of play altogether. I do think that a lot of 'kippers' will come home though.

UKIP is a busted flush for now. They just haven't got the media attention since the EU elections, and another party started looking like being a contender in the 'balance of power' stakes. Which is why it's Nicola Sturgeon garnering ( bad ) double page spreads in the Sun rather than Farage these days. If it was Farage who was knocking at the door, you can be sure he'd be the one sitting on a wrecking ball in a bikini right now.

The Tories may well get the most seats, and mabye even decide to battle on as a minority govt. But it will be really, really hard going. Especially if afterwards the Lib Dems and Labour decide to elect new leaders and sweep aside old policies and reinvent themselves ( which would be obvious to do since they failed to be elected on the old ones ).

All to play for. Things will probably look very different than they are now by Christmas. I daresay there will be a few leaders elections on the go, one way or another ( it might be the Tory party sweeping Cameron aside for Boris instead of Labour and Milliband ). Who knows.

Generali

Shakethedisease wrote: »

The two 'big' parties are starting to lose all hope of a majority for themselves. Hence all the 'Vote SNP, get Tory' and 'Vote Labour', get SNP' 'Vote UKIP, get Labour', 'Vote Green, get Tory'... neither of them seem to want to stand on a platform of what to vote for in terms of their own policies.

Not really. It's a perfectly legitimate tactic.

Everyone knows that the SNP, Greens and UKIP have absolutely no chance of winning a majority at the next election. The 3 parties between them won't even get 10% of the seats. They do seem to be gathering an awful lot of support in the polls at least, we'll see how the polls turn into votes in a few weeks.

If I was a Tory tactician I'd reason that actually quite a few of my policies are the sort of thing that a UKIP person might prefer to having Labour policies so I would seek to frame things in those terms.

It's how parties win Government in the C21st: you take an obvious truth (e.g. the SNP can't form a majority Government in Westminster and is a left wing party) and then try to use that truth to try to frame the terms of the debate in a way that suits your needs.

All you're really saying is that Labour and Tory are appealing to vote for them rather than someone else and extrapolating that to mean that they are scared and obviously going to lose.

FWIW, my guess is this election is a re-run of 1992 only this time with people being unwilling to admit that they are going to vote Labour or Tory. The fact is that if you vote UKIP or Green, you might as well not bother voting at all. I strongly suspect that in the English voting booth many people will think hard and vote for one of the big 2 parties after all.

Tromking

Shakethedisease wrote: »

English taxpayers 'largesse' ah yes.. it's been at least a week since that one was rolled out. Moving on..

Always good to reiterate an undeniable truth.

ruggedtoast

Listen, this is all quite simple.

Scotland belongs to England by right of conquest and will remain a possession of the Crown in perpetuity until such time as His / Her Britannic Majesty chooses to offer Scots their freedom.

In the meantime you had all better just knuckle down and get on with the business of paying taxes, and finding more ways to pay more taxes.

Shakethedisease

Generali wrote: »

Not really. It's a perfectly legitimate tactic.

Everyone knows that the SNP, Greens and UKIP have absolutely no chance of winning a majority at the next election. The 3 parties between them won't even get 10% of the seats. They do seem to be gathering an awful lot of support in the polls at least, we'll see how the polls turn into votes in a few weeks.

If I was a Tory tactician I'd reason that actually quite a few of my policies are the sort of thing that a UKIP person might prefer to having Labour policies so I would seek to frame things in those terms.

It's how parties win Government in the C21st: you take an obvious truth (e.g. the SNP can't form a majority Government in Westminster and is a left wing party) and then try to use that truth to try to frame the terms of the debate in a way that suits your needs.

All you're really saying is that Labour and Tory are appealing to vote for them rather than someone else and extrapolating that to mean that they are scared and obviously going to lose.

FWIW, my guess is this election is a re-run of 1992 only this time with people being unwilling to admit that they are going to vote Labour or Tory. The fact is that if you vote UKIP or Green, you might as well not bother voting at all. I strongly suspect that in the English voting booth many people will think hard and vote for one of the big 2 parties after all.

Oh I don't disagree with you. It's a perfectly legitimate tactic. I just think that standing on a platform saying 'Vote for us, so they don't get in' is pretty dull and uninspiring for any voter in deciding who to cast their vote for. However, every seat counts this time round, so I guess they all have to do what they have to do to get them.

Obviously they're scared they're going to lose. But a few months ago Labour were counting on 41 seats that they can't count on now. And the fact that there was a good possibility of gaining some seats from the Tories. However, it's a bit rich of David Cameron to be gloating about how 'Labour will get into power hanging on to the coat tails of the SNP'... when he only gained power himself hanging onto the coat tails of Lib Dems. Under what was supposed to be extremely favourable political conditions for the Tories in 2010.

It may well be that FPTP has to be revisited. As this time round government may end up either side, relying on either weak minority governments, or ones based loosely on deals between 2/3 or even 4 parties in order to gain a majority.

Shakethedisease

Tromking wrote: »

Always good to reiterate an undeniable truth.

Hows that figure of govt debt and borrowing coming along in the undeniable truth stakes ?

N1AK

Generali wrote: »

FWIW, my guess is this election is a re-run of 1992 only this time with people being unwilling to admit that they are going to vote Labour or Tory. The fact is that if you vote UKIP or Green, you might as well not bother voting at all.

I don't think that's an uncommon view. Polls consistently predict Greens getting no extra MPs, UKIP getting 4-5. Heck, ignoring the rise of SNP, predictions are that more seats are going to the major 2 parties.

If you think that those polls are over-estimating voters for UKIP you could virtually double your money by betting that UKIP will get 4 or fewer MPs...

N1AK

Shakethedisease wrote: »

I just think that standing on a platform saying 'Vote for us, so they don't get in' is pretty dull and uninspiring for any voter in deciding who to cast their vote for. However, every seat counts this time round, so I guess they all have to do what they have to do to get them.

It is uninspiring, but to expect a party not to use something like this if they think they can exploit it is pointless. The Conservatives clearly think that they can put Labour in an awkward position where they risk:
> Losing more Scottish votes by bad-mouthing the SNP, and/or appearing to dismiss Scottish issues
> Losing English votes by giving the impression they'll be wagged by the Scottish tail

People may highlight the hypocrisy given the current coalition, but politically it isn't an issue for the Tories: A Tory voter would prefer a Lib/Con coalition again to a Labour government.

CLAPTON

Shakethedisease wrote: »

Hows that figure of govt debt and borrowing coming along in the undeniable truth stakes ?

what do the SNP say the govt debt and borrowing are?
do they materially differ from the ONS?

we have been spending more that we tax (both the UK and Scotland) since 2001/2 funded by ever more borrowing.

do you think we should simply continue for ever?
what would happen when (not if) interest rates rise?

when do you think we should stop borrowing (even if we don't actually repay any of the debt)?