North Sea oil companies "close to collapse"

Generali

cells wrote: »

Its only a guess but I figured

$30B. Typically gdp is 70% labour 30% capital so $20B of that would go to labour

$20B over mean wage of $50k would yield 400,000 jobs.

However it will likely be less as I doubt the full $20B will go to job creation some of it will go to strengthen the pound and there is also a productivity gap to fill so I figured just half it

whatever the actual figure its certainly many magnitudes bigger than 300 jobs lost at BP

Fair enough, mine's just a guess too.

Whatever way you look at it, falling oil prices are great except for a small number of people in London and Aberdeen.

antrobus

cells wrote: »

...consumers save $30B and gov loses perhaps $10B in taxes....

Government loses £5 billion. VAT is 20%

Of course, consumers may well spend a great deal of their £30 billion savings on other things that are VATable, thereby cushioning the loss. And they mean even spend some of that £30 billion on duty laden products such as booze and fags.

And if that £30 billion does mean 400,000 extra jobs then that will boost tax receipts and generate savings on the welfare bill.

Personally, I wouldn't worry about the short term impact (if any) on the Govt finances, and that the country (excluding Aberdeen) is £30 billion better off.:)

CLAPTON

Thrugelmir wrote: »

UK economy has a long way to go to rebalance. To do so will require structural change. Change requires triggers. Oil may be one of those triggers.

Forget consumers. Consider the benefits to UK industry.

I suspect that you aren't grasping the longer term effects of the trade deficits that the UK has been registering in recent months.

the sole purpose of an economy is consumers.

you totally miss the issue with trade deficits that have been substantial for many years (and of which I frequency refer)

what do you mean rebalance : increase unemployment, reduce income, reduce spending on NHS etc?

cells

Scottish Energy Minister Fergus Ewing wants oil tax cut

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-30852724


Watch his squirm,

Some things to pick up on, his claims of 400,000 employed in oil and gas is probably a ridiculous overstatement. The total value of the oil (~$15B) and gas(~$9B) once you take into account the high royalty fees wouldn't even be enough to make payroll for half of that claimed 400k workers.
I would guess the true figure for for a capital intensive high tax product like oil and gas with that sort of income would be in the region of <50,000 workers the vast majority of which would be safe even with $25 oil.

Thrugelmir

CLAPTON wrote: »

the sole purpose of an economy is consumers.

you totally miss the issue with trade deficits that have been substantial for many years (and of which I frequency refer)

what do you mean rebalance : increase unemployment, reduce income, reduce spending on NHS etc?

The economy has become dependent on consumerism (imported goods). It is not the sole purpose.

Haven't missed them at all. I regularly comment on the threat they pose if they continue at current levels.

Consume yes. However with home produced items. Manufactured in the UK using UK built equipment and plant.

CLAPTON

Thrugelmir wrote: »

The economy has become dependent on consumerism (imported goods). It is not the sole purpose.

Haven't missed them at all. I regularly comment on the threat they pose if they continue at current levels.

Consume yes. However with home produced items. Manufactured in the UK using UK built equipment and plant.

no idea what you are trying to say


The purpose of the economy is to produce consumer goods. It is, of course true, that we sometimes delay consumption and produce capital goods but only so we have more to consume later.

To only consume home produced manufactured good would smash our current prosperity and would be irrational, indeed total madness.

antrobus

CLAPTON wrote: »

....The purpose of the economy is to produce consumer goods. .....

The purpose of the economy is to satisfy human wants. Man is not satisfied by mere 'goods'. They want Sky Sports as well.

cells

Council just said no to the development of shale wells near Blackpool on the grounds that it would create some temporary nose while they drill for a few weeks.

North sea might be close to collapse but most new industries seem to be collapsed before they are born by the local NIMBYs

staggeringly stupid especially considering that shale field is projected to hold more NatGas than the marcellus shale in the USA which has turned out to be a monster of a field producing more than twice what the UK consumes

gfplux

Our present has been shaped by the nimbys for more than 20 century's? We are where we are because of them. What will be will be.
I tend to think that way at three score and ten.

Thrugelmir

CLAPTON wrote: »

To only consume home produced manufactured good would smash our current prosperity and would be irrational, indeed total madness.

Current prosperity? Funded by what. Bank handouts? There'll come a point when the banks will have paid for their historic misjudgement. What then? A return to the credit boom.