Debate House Prices


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North Sea oil companies "close to collapse"

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Comments

  • dryhat wrote: »
    I haven't been here for a while.

    How's McTittish with all this news?

    I hope he's OK
    I`m sure he is feeling a bit queasy with all the reality, but will ex-council hovels in Tillydrone hold their price.....tune in next week folks for some more Bullish nonsense, or maybe not :money: Hey, at least the punters in Aberdeen will soon be saving money on their house purchase! Got to look on the bright side folks!

    Awwww, bless...

    Your little crush is so cute!
    “The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.

    Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”

    -- President John F. Kennedy”
  • Thrugelmir
    Thrugelmir Posts: 89,546 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 10,000 Posts Name Dropper Photogenic
    CLAPTON wrote: »
    yes, I am delighted that foreign sourced goods are becoming cheaper

    however, that doesn't change the maths that the tax take is less on children's cloths than on imported oil.

    that is a benefit to the people of the UK but there is no automatic correction to government lose of tax revenue

    I prefer to take a longer term view. Lower oil and gas prices could provide the UK with a welcome boost. Not least to reduce the potentially unsustainable debt burden. That lurks in the shadows and threatens to hinder real recovery.
  • CLAPTON
    CLAPTON Posts: 41,865 Forumite
    10,000 Posts Combo Breaker
    Thrugelmir wrote: »
    I prefer to take a longer term view. Lower oil and gas prices could provide the UK with a welcome boost. Not least to reduce the potentially unsustainable debt burden. That lurks in the shadows and threatens to hinder real recovery.


    makes no sense

    the longer and shorter term give the same results

    lower prices for essential imports are a benefits to the people of the UK both in the short term and the longer term
  • mayonnaise
    mayonnaise Posts: 3,690 Forumite
    dryhat wrote: »
    I haven't been here for a while.
    Yes I noticed you haven't been ramping bitcoin lately. I wonder why.:rotfl:

    bitcoin-s-decline-against-the-us-dollar-over-the-last-12-months-bitcoin-_chartbuilder.png?w=640
    Don't blame me, I voted Remain.
  • Generali
    Generali Posts: 36,411 Forumite
    10,000 Posts Combo Breaker
    mayonnaise wrote: »
    Yes I noticed you haven't been ramping bitcoin lately. I wonder why.:rotfl:

    bitcoin-s-decline-against-the-us-dollar-over-the-last-12-months-bitcoin-_chartbuilder.png?w=640

    It was down ~30% in a couple of days at one point.

    Then again in May (?) 2010 1 BTX = USD 0.06.
  • Thrugelmir
    Thrugelmir Posts: 89,546 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 10,000 Posts Name Dropper Photogenic
    CLAPTON wrote: »
    makes no sense

    the longer and shorter term give the same results

    lower prices for essential imports are a benefits to the people of the UK both in the short term and the longer term

    UK economy has a long way to go to rebalance. To do so will require structural change. Change requires triggers. Oil may be one of those triggers.

    Forget consumers. Consider the benefits to UK industry.

    I suspect that you aren't grasping the longer term effects of the trade deficits that the UK has been registering in recent months.
  • cells
    cells Posts: 5,246 Forumite
    carslet wrote: »
    looks like it is happening sooner then anyone thought it would.

    BP announcing job cuts in the north sea


    300 jobs lost is nowt

    Imagine the number of jobs that will be created in the UK due to the $30B a year saving that will be spent elsewhere in the economy.

    My guess is at least 100,000 jobs and perhaps as much as 200,000 jobs will be created due to the additional $30B spend into the economy instead of the oil companies (domestic and foreign)


    300 BP jobs lost for 100k to 200k jobs created elsewhere seems a very good trade
  • Generali
    Generali Posts: 36,411 Forumite
    10,000 Posts Combo Breaker
    cells wrote: »
    300 jobs lost is nowt

    Imagine the number of jobs that will be created in the UK due to the $30B a year saving that will be spent elsewhere in the economy.

    My guess is at least 100,000 jobs and perhaps as much as 200,000 jobs will be created due to the additional $30B spend into the economy instead of the oil companies (domestic and foreign)


    300 BP jobs lost for 100k to 200k jobs created elsewhere seems a very good trade

    That sounds pretty pessimistic to me: $300,000 a job! Ok, that will include fixed investment but still it seems high.

    I don't see why fewer than 300,000 jobs would be created.
  • cells
    cells Posts: 5,246 Forumite
    CLAPTON wrote: »
    yes, I am delighted that foreign sourced goods are becoming cheaper

    however, that doesn't change the maths that the tax take is less on children's cloths than on imported oil.

    that is a benefit to the people of the UK but there is no automatic correction to government lose of tax revenue

    Its a dead easy problem to fix. Just up taxes for the shortfall.

    Eg uk uses 1.5mbpd and produces about half that.

    consumers save $30B and gov loses perhaps $10B in taxes. Well up taxes by $10B and gov lost nothing yet consumers are still $20B a year better off

    a fall in prices is good news for the UK and many of itd biggest trading partners. The tax 'problems' are easy to fix.

    oil prices had they doubled instead of halved would have on the other hand been disaster for the net oil consumers like the UK
  • cells
    cells Posts: 5,246 Forumite
    Generali wrote: »
    That sounds pretty pessimistic to me: $300,000 a job! Ok, that will include fixed investment but still it seems high.

    I don't see why fewer than 300,000 jobs would be created.

    Its only a guess but I figured

    $30B. Typically gdp is 70% labour 30% capital so $20B of that would go to labour

    $20B over mean wage of $50k would yield 400,000 jobs.

    However it will likely be less as I doubt the full $20B will go to job creation some of it will go to strengthen the pound and there is also a productivity gap to fill so I figured just half it

    whatever the actual figure its certainly many magnitudes bigger than 300 jobs lost at BP
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