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VLS80% plus what (if anything)?
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Err the title says Templeton EM!
Also this looks like comparing prices, not total returns. The Trustnet Charting tool does total return by default.0 -
Suggest you look in more detail at the long term Murray data. 1995- 2007 MI pretty well matched the sector and underperformed the FTSE100. 2009-now it also matched the sector. So I would guess that the fund made a good call right at the start of the credit crunch crash to avoid the banks. Almost all its outperformance happened during the 2007-2009 period. Does that tell us what will happen in the next 20 years?
I suggest that star managers have a style which happens to be appropriate for particular states of the market, not that they can work wonders no matter what. My evidence is Andrew Bolton and China Special Situations.
*updated chart below*
The main appeal of Murray (for me) is that it's maintained this performance with a very broad geographical allocation, and plenty of fixed income to protect from drawdowns
Murray isn't in my growth portfolio - it's a defensive, low volatility fund to shelter capital0 -
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This is NOT how you should pick funds btw
Past performance is usually a very good indicator of future underperformance
In Murray's case though, it's still averaging a CAPE around 15, P/B around 2, and dividends of around 4% ... This means it's achieved good solid growth (and income) without staying in overvalued assets (effectively, it looks as good today as it did 10 years ago ... with an index - and many funds in general, especially smaller companies - performance and valuation tend to creep up together)0 -
Rather than plotting it against the FTSE100 try the IT Global Equity Income index or the FTSE World Index - MI is a global fund. Or look at the data. MI is pretty average for Global equity income ITs.0
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Rather than plotting it against the FTSE100 try the IT Global Equity Income index or the FTSE World Index - MI is a global fund. Or look at the data. MI is pretty average for Global equity income ITs.
I can't actually find global equity income on that chart tool (I'm sure it's there somewhere)
But Murray seems to be up around 10% over IMA global equity income over 5 years (comparing against another chart - and that's with an unusual period of underperformance)
But absolutely - there are plenty of great global income ITs out there ... I like Murray more because it's achieved this without much exposure to the US, and because it's more of a complete portfolio, with fixed income, property, commodities, etc ... nowhere near as aggressively positioned as many others ... Any outperformance is a bonus)0 -
Ryan_Futuristics wrote: »It will be raining elks before VLS outperforms either of those over 10 years
Yes, certainly, but VLS or other passive portfolios are not meant to hold any relevance to a fund managed by one of the most successful (lucky?) fund managers of the preceding 20 years.
I outlined how a portfolio such as VLS works in a post earlier in this thread. For instance, the portfolio I run is predicted to run a long term return of 5% after inflation with a annualized standard deviation of risk of 11%, meaning 19 of 20 returns should lie between -6% and 16%. These are not tea leaves, they are predictions based on all scientific research 100+ years of all markets and why they return what they do. I'll be satisfied with that 5% annualised return over inflation and for me I should be Financially Independent by 50.
Others may wish to follow a strategy that delivers 10% return with a 20% risk but I fear that forms a gamble against my longevity.0 -
While I'm hijacking the thread - here's Neil Woodford's former fund vs the FTSE 100 and All Share
You can see the period of underperformance around '99, when he avoided the tech boom (stretched valuations) and then also avoided the best part of the subsequent tech crash0 -
TheTracker wrote: »Yes, certainly, but VLS or other passive portfolios are not meant to hold any relevance to a fund managed by one of the most successful (lucky?) fund managers of the preceding 20 years.
I outlined how a portfolio such as VLS works in a post earlier in this thread. For instance, the portfolio I run is predicted to run a long term return of 5% after inflation with a annualized standard deviation of risk of 11%, meaning 19 of 20 returns should lie between -6% and 16%. These are not tea leaves, they are predictions based on all scientific research 100+ years of all markets and why they return what they do. I'll be satisfied with that 5% annualised return over inflation and for me I should be Financially Independent by 50.
Others may wish to follow a strategy that delivers 10% return with a 20% risk but I fear that forms a gamble against my longevity.
Well that's a fine ambition - and I'm not really sure I'd recommend people buy Eastern Europe and Emerging Markets when they've got specific aims like yours
But I also think it's difficult to talk about 100 years of data when there have been many different eras and market conditions within this period, and when any averaging will likely be skewed by a very specific (and unlikely repeatable) set of global circumstances
For me, it comes down to whether the conditions of the markets that have performed are more likely to repeat than the principles ... When it comes to risking my own money, I have to be honest I'd be more nervous about holding US equities and bond funds at the moment than emerging markets and europe0
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