Premium Bonds Article Discussion Area

hector127

I pesonally think the 2 million pound prizes should be divided into smaller prizes of say lots of £10,000's in these tough times.
Frankly i'm seriously thinking of cashing my bonds in as the odds of winning are becoming ever more remote than ever.
Going to write to Premium Bonds to ask them to alter the prize structure , probadly wasting my time , but if every bond holder wrote in , i think they would have to listen. So get writing.
If nothing is done soon i'm voting with my feet and selling my substantial holding and my partners holding , as quite frankly i'm well disappointed.
Where's Mr Sugar now ????????????????????????

hector127

What if Premium Bonds further reduce the interest rates , which i suspect they will , they won't be worth holding at all , as there will eventually have to be no prizes.
Think theres going to be a massive exodus of sellers and can you blame them , might as well keep their money at home and do the lottery

hector127

Think Premium bonds should have a total change , why do they give out £50 prizes which you are allowed to reinvest , yet if you went to The Post Office you can only purchase the minimum £100.
It's one rule for them and one for us.
The way the prize draws are going we're only going to win £50 if anything at all , what does £50 buy nowadays , not even the minimum Premium Bond investment.
The Have I won page , will be written on the back of a stamp at this rate.
Totally fed up with PB'S
Where's Mr Sugar now , very quiet

Segilla

I've various values of bonds in my £30K holding, including 2 x £2000.
One was bought Oct 1998, the other Nov 1998.
One has won 4 times, the other 14 times, (almost always £50 prizes - nothing over 1 x £100).
For these two bonds, is this statistically reasonable?
If you're a statistician holding these actual bonds and urgently needed cash, which would you sell?
If you're not a statistician which would you sell?
Please don't say, "It doesn't matter which"!

Paul_Herring

Segilla wrote: »

Please don't say, "It doesn't matter which"!

Why don't you want the only valid answer? :rolleyes:

auckland6

I have had bonds in for years, Got 17k in now 2 x 5k 1 x 2k and loads of 50s/100s/500s
Last year I won a total of £850 and this year to date won £450! Yep its not a lot but its FUN! and you never know? put it this way I invest £100 a month and never notice it (1200 a year!) I put this much into a Royal Sun 10 year saving account! 1 year to go - found it was going under and company being sold to American Eagle! (never heard of it!) So £10800 was put in - drew it out got 7k back!!!!!!!!! the so called rip off bonuses in the last year was £1.28!!!! If I did not do this I would of lost the lot! In bonds I would of probable had with average luck about 14K back!
Fully recommend the bonds! why - because you get back what you put in, its 100% safe, with a good chance of a win and maybe a big one! and lets face it its great when you receive 50 quid which I have automatic investment! the amount adds up over the years! - Good old Ernie I say!

Segilla

Paul_Herring. Sorry, I don't really understand your comment. Anyhow, maybe you'd care to comment ignoring my last sentence?

Aegis

Segilla wrote: »

Paul_Herring. Sorry, I don't really understand your comment. Anyhow, maybe you'd care to comment ignoring my last sentence?

It doesn't matter.

Statistically if a standard 2-sided coin has just come up heads 20 times in a row, the chance of you getting a tails result the next time is still 50%. As long as the test is a standard fair test, there's no bias, just random fluctuations.

Paul_Herring

Segilla wrote: »

Paul_Herring. Sorry, I don't really understand your comment.

The only valid answer to your question is "it doesn't matter which you sell." I'm asking why you don't want the right answer.

Anyhow, maybe you'd care to comment ignoring my last sentence?

Ok. It doesn't matter which you sell.

Milarky

Segilla wrote: »

I've various values of bonds in my £30K holding, including 2 x £2000.
One was bought Oct 1998, the other Nov 1998.
One has won 4 times, the other 14 times, (almost always £50 prizes - nothing over 1 x £100).
For these two bonds, is this statistically reasonable?

There are too many variables to give an exact answer - because the 'odds' vary with each change of 'interest rate' applied by NS&I

[I've emailed NS&I to ask if they can provide past draw information]

[Update 05-12-2008: They have now replied thusly]

The only information NS&I keep on the web site is for the past 12 months.
This can be found at :
http://www.nsandi.com/interest-rates/historic.jsp

For any further information I can only advise that you put your request in
writing as NS&I do hold full records.

Kind regards
Chris Cunningham
NS&I Blackpool

But, bascially, you've had c.120 draws (10 years) and have won 18 times. So on average you've won once every 6.67 draws. This has come from holding £4000 worth of bonds. That's a prize for every 26,667 draw entries.

So if the average Premium Bond 'odds' over the 10 years was '26,667:1' you've had average luck [in terms of numbers of prizes won] if they were lower ('22,800:1' say) you've won fewer prizes (you could have expected '22' prizes rather than 18) and vice versa.

But even where you come out 'even' as regards numbers of prizes you need to compare your average prize value (total winnings/18) with the average prize for all these draws. The fact that your prizes don't include anything above £100 will mean that your average prize is under the average premium bond prize for certain.