What's happened to my portfolio in the last 2 weeks?!

masonic

stringer_bell wrote: »

so my cash isa has just been transferred to my s&s platform, so I have £15k to invest but I notice my current funds down..

I always thought buying at the bottom would be good, would it be wise to buy now or do we see further drops?

I'm planning to polish off my ISA allowance over the next month or so, buying into holdings that have fallen the most to maintain my asset allocation. More drops are not unlikely, but there is always the risk of a rally.

A_Flock_Of_Sheep

masonic wrote: »

I'm planning to polish off my ISA allowance over the next month or so, buying into holdings that have fallen the most to maintain my asset allocation. More drops are not unlikely, but there is always the risk of a rally.

Tesco and Tullow Oil have fallen a lot

stringer_bell

masonic wrote: »

I'm planning to polish off my ISA allowance over the next month or so, buying into holdings that have fallen the most to maintain my asset allocation. More drops are not unlikely, but there is always the risk of a rally.

I'm thinking maybe do it in £5k every 3 or so weeks, so hopefully will distribute it evenly

Ryan_Futuristics

N1AK wrote: »

In which case, if you aren't daft or lazy, you'd be shorting on those markets and making easy money... are you?

I haven't sold a penny of my index funds, and don't intend to because I don't think I can accurately predict what the market will do in the future. What skin have you got in the game that means we should take you seriously?

One thing I will say - although I don't really time markets myself - is that you can do a pretty good job of assessing risk and working out where markets *should* be

I think the Vanguard campaign presents an overly negative picture by looking at the 'average' investor (although evidently their conclusion is difficult to argue with)



The average investor only returns just over 2% - far lower than just holding the index ... By all accounts this 'average' investor shouldn't be let anywhere near the markets

But this isn't someone using Moving Averages and valuation metrics - it can't be - this is simply Joe Average putting money on water-cooler stock tips and popular indexes, and selling as soon as they take losses

I don't see it as a criticism of informed opinion or even market timing strategies ... I think it's more a reflection of the general state of ignorance and misguided optimism people operate on - and I think now we've got a new generation of evangelical 'passive' investors who are repeating all the same mistakes (and who I wouldn't be surprised to see making negative returns on average)

Ryan_Futuristics

stringer_bell wrote: »

I'm thinking maybe do it in £5k every 3 or so weeks, so hopefully will distribute it evenly

On this, I'd say there's no way to call it (you will probably get it wrong)

I've been expecting a 30-40% drop at some point within the year - what we've got now is either a tiny bump in the road OR it's the beginning of a big market correction

A big correction is the *real* buying opportunity (I'd see it as the FTSE 100 dropping at least below 5000) ... Often these come after a few false starts and a few minor rallies (so the market *may* appear to pick up, and people will start saying 'Another bull market!' ... but this is often the sign a real correction's on the way ... There's a sort of endless struggle between bulls and bears getting there)

If you buy now, or even when the market's another 5% down, you could be a long way off realising the gains of buying when it actually hits the bottom

Basically: it needs to go down a lot further before the markets will be fairly valued - so don't jump the gun

My advice: just keep investing at a regular pace ... When markets look terrible, and people are in despair, and questioning whether stocks will ever be a good investment again, THEN I'll probably add heavily to my portfolio (and I'll still be using valuation metrics)

kindlefirebabe

It is not wise to watch over your investments too regularly as it can be alarming. Your investments will even out over a period of years. If you have extra to invest perhaps now is the time to buy extra units(while they are cheap) You also need to consider your approach to risk. An independent financial advisor would do an assessment with you before determining which investments to make.

PenguinJim

Ryan_Futuristics wrote: »

The average investor only returns just over 2% - far lower than just holding the index ... By all accounts this 'average' investor shouldn't be let anywhere near the markets

Unless I'm misunderstanding, that "Average Investor" is surely an average of people who buy funds/shares as long-term investments (i.e. buy and hold) as well as people who "trade" (buy/sell/buy/sell/buy/sell/buy/sell/suicide).

Glen_Clark

Interesting commentary on the October financial storms here. You just have to allow for the political bias in the Torygraph which tends to 'put lipstick on the pig' when it comes to Cameron & Osborne's economic performance - see also best comments below the article : http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/11167155/Falling-stock-markets-Here-we-go-again-....html

Mistermeaner

Been doing a bit of maths with my zurich pension, following my various chops and changes, sales / purchases etc.

Looks like I have sold at a loss on a few occasions, albeit very minor ones. Mostly I appear, completely through luck rather than judgement to have sold before the drops (I made alot of adjustments beginning of Sep)

Anyway, since October 2012, I have paid in (mine and empoyers contributions, plus transfer from an old scheme) £49K

My current holdings (with charges etc. taken off) are worth £54.5K

By my maths that is an 11% increase in value over 2 years....... This seems OK I think, particularly given current state of markets - What do others think or how have they faired over this same period?


My current holdings are:

40% world exc. UK equities
30% Long dated gilt
20% property
10% emerging markets


Future purchases are

70% mixed equity/bond global fund
15% property
5% emerging markets
10% world exc. Uk equities

At some point when I think the market is low enough I will look sell the Gilts and buy back equities; provided I buy them back for less than I sold them that will good I think.

Gosh this is fun, doesn;t even feel like its real money!

Glen_Clark

ggb1979 wrote: »

Gosh this is fun,

Its fun until your luck runs out .....