Mark Carney warns of complacency in financial markets

MFW_ASAP

purch wrote: »

When you are Walter Mitty you don't need to worry about reality.

What's up purch, bored with posting serious stuff and decided to just join the trolls instead?

Oh well, this next post will really ruin your day....

MFW_ASAP

I started this thread a year ago and stated that I'd be out of the share market for about about a year. Well a year has passed, so let's see how I did:

I posted a screenshot of my pension just over 12 months ago:

MFW_ASAP wrote: »

and here is a screenshot from today:





On 08-10-2014 the pension was £126,097.35.

On 10/11/2015 it's standing at £152,190.46.

£152,190.46 - £126,097.35 = £26,093.11 gain in just over a year.
a 20.69% gain

This is without adding any additional monies to the fund. I haven't invested in the SIPP for about 8 years as I put money into my company pension instead to get the employer contributions.

That's a tasty 20.69% gain in what has been a pretty turbulent year.

How do you like those apples Purch?

To cheer you up, here is a photo of me enjoying my new wealth....

chucknorris

purch wrote: »

When you are Walter Mitty you don't need to worry about reality.

I believed him before he posted that screen shot, I'm not sure why you doubt him, I think the bears doubt him because they are jealous, but I'm quite sure that would not be your reason.

chucknorris

Generali wrote: »

Trading a la MFW is highly risky and extremely unlikely to make you money long term.

I agree, but good luck to him, but trading is something that I really don't want to get dragged into myself. I'm trying to take the long term view, rather than looking for short term gains.

MFW_ASAP

I just did a quick search and found a post in Feb 2009 I made where I mentioned that my SIPP was about £80k. I had joined a company scheme around that time and so haven't contributed to my SIPP since. This means it has gained £70k in 6 years. That's an investment return of 87.5% over that period, or averaging at 14.58% per year over the last 6 years.

Coupled with my brave decision to buy a dream house at the bottom of the crash in 2010, predicting we would have low rates for years, thus means I'm the investment King of this board and everyone should bow before me!!!!!

MFW_ASAP

Hurrah hurrah for King MFW!!!

I just wonder how long I need to keep up these gains before they become 'long-term'.

wotsthat

MFW_ASAP wrote: »

I just did a quick search and found a post in Feb 2009 I made where I mentioned that my SIPP was about £80k. I had joined a company scheme around that time and so haven't contributed to my SIPP since. This means it has gained £70k in 6 years. That's an investment return of 87.5% over that period, or averaging at 14.58% per year over the last 6 years.

I've managed 9.41% 01/02/2009 - 11/11/2015. Rising markets make investment geniuses of us all. However, it's become apparent that I do better when doing nothing other than sitting in for the ride and reinvesting dividends. When gambling on the stock market, unless you're very lucky or know better than anyone else, you'll eventually lose.

You might be thinking you know better than anyone else but if you did you wouldn't have made the punt you did by the mechanism of converting a pension from fully invested to cash and back again.

Generali

MFW_ASAP wrote: »

Hurrah hurrah for King MFW!!!

I just wonder how long I need to keep up these gains before they become 'long-term'.

I work in asset management.

What do you benchmark against? Are you after absolute or relative returns? What risk management do you use or do you simply hope that your funds don't blow up? Do you do any significant due diligence or do you hope that the fund manager/platform provider is doing the right thing? Do you measure returns before or after charges and why?

Most importantly:

What are your risk adjusted returns (and do you know what they are and how they are gained)? You are very exposed to APAC. Are you planning on retiring in Asia/Australia (we'd make you very welcome here) and if not how do you manage FX risk?

Generally speaking, "It went up" isn't a great way to measure how your retirement planning is going.

MFW_ASAP

wotsthat wrote: »

I've managed 9.41% 01/02/2009 - 11/11/2015. Rising markets make investment geniuses of us all. However, it's become apparent that I do better when doing nothing other than sitting in for the ride and reinvesting dividends. When gambling on the stock market, unless you're very lucky or know better than anyone else, you'll eventually lose.

You might be thinking you know better than anyone else but if you did you wouldn't have made the punt you did by the mechanism of converting a pension from fully invested to cash and back again.

If I didn't make the punt to go into cash (I have done this a few times over the years when I believe that the market is overheating) then I would have made the 9.41% gain you made, rather than the 87% I did make.

I never understand the resaoning behind sticking with shares when you know that the market is overheating (i.e. when the BBC starts going on about how the FTSE100 is over 7000 for the first time and is making record gains).

Your fund manager cannot move a large amount of money to cash, but you can. There is nothing to stop you cashing in your funds when the FTSE100 reaches 7000 and then re-buying those same funds when the FTSE100 reaches 6000. You're simply profit taking at what you think is the peak and then buying back in when at what you think is the trough.

If the FTSE reaches 7000 and the BBC is talking about records, do you think that there is much more to gain? Not me.

If you buy back into the same funds when the market is at 6000 and the market continues to fall to 5500, do you bemoan the fact that you bought in too early? Not me, I'm more focused on the fact I'm still far better off than I would have been if I had done nothing.

Jonbvn

MFW_ASAP wrote: »

Your fund manager cannot move a large amount of money to cash, but you can. There is nothing to stop you cashing in your funds when the FTSE100 reaches 7000 and then re-buying those same funds when the FTSE100 reaches 6000. You're simply profit taking at what you think is the peak and then buying back in when at what you think is the trough.

If only it were that easy.

Trust me but you are not the next Warren Buffet.