Mark Carney warns of complacency in financial markets

MFW_ASAP

Generali wrote: »

Generally speaking, "It went up" isn't a great way to measure how your retirement planning is going.

Well I measured it against the matrix you gave me a year ago:

Generali wrote: »

Well you know for a fact that you'll miss out on dividends in the meantime of ~3%. On top of that you have to do something else with your money: cash rates are low and I wouldn't touch Fixed Income with a bargepole.

I missed on your ~3% dividend, but made 20.69% instead. Incidently, I also made a lot on dividends because I was day/week trading some shares when they went ex-dividend. An unexpected but welcome addition to my gains.

Life is good.

Jason74

MFW_ASAP wrote: »

I just did a quick search and found a post in Feb 2009 I made where I mentioned that my SIPP was about £80k. I had joined a company scheme around that time and so haven't contributed to my SIPP since. This means it has gained £70k in 6 years. That's an investment return of 87.5% over that period, or averaging at 14.58% per year over the last 6 years.

Coupled with my brave decision to buy a dream house at the bottom of the crash in 2010, predicting we would have low rates for years, thus means I'm the investment King of this board and everyone should bow before me!!!!!

Congratulations on doing so well , and good luck to you on that. But that said, a little humility is never a bad thing. Always worth remembering that pride can come before a fall.

MFW_ASAP

Jonbvn wrote: »

If only it were that easy.

Trust me but you are not the next Warren Buffet.

I don't think Warren Buffet is the next Warren Buffet anymore. He made a loss on Tesco and said it was one of his worst share decision. I made a huge profit with Tesco and said it was one of my best share decision. Warren Buffet is probably wishing he was the new MFW_ASAP.

As far as buying in and out of funds is concerned, it really is that easy. You select the fund and then click on the 'Sell' button. You then hope that the stock market is flat for the 24 hours it takes for the fund to sell. Remember that it costs nothing to buy and sell funds.

A few weeks later once you've decided that the market has fallen far enough you select the fund, click the 'Buy' button and put the same amount of money back in, but this time instead of 12,000 shares, you own 14,0000 for the same money. You also get better dividends because you have more shares.

Simples.

The figures don't lie, I've almost doubled my pension in 6 years. :money:

MFW_ASAP

Jason74 wrote: »

Congratulations on doing so well , and good luck to you on that. But that said, a little humility is never a bad thing. Always worth remembering that pride can come before a fall.

As Davina used to say when the Big Brother housemates wereejected and booed by the crowd "It's all pantomime'.

I'm just having a bit of fun on this 'It's a Knockout' board. I am one a few other forums where I'm serious and respectful (I'm on Fool with Generali, but he'd never know it).

saying that, I'm respectful to the posters I like on here (gen, conrad, chucknorris, etc.).

It's all just a bit of fun. I had a good giggle with the OTT Investment King of the Board and the Scrooge McDuck gold coin swimming pool:)

Jonbvn

MFW_ASAP wrote: »

I don't think Warren Buffet is the next Warren Buffet anymore. He made a loss on Tesco and said it was one of his worst share decision. I made a huge profit with Tesco and said it was one of my best share decision. Warren Buffet is probably wishing he was the new MFW_ASAP.

As far as buying in and out of funds is concerned, it really is that easy. You select the fund and then click on the 'Sell' button. You then hope that the stock market is flat for the 24 hours it takes for the fund to sell. Remember that it costs nothing to buy and sell funds.

A few weeks later once you've decided that the market has fallen far enough you select the fund, click the 'Buy' button and put the same amount of money back in, but this time instead of 12,000 shares, you own 14,0000 for the same money. You also get better dividends because you have more shares.

Buy low and sell high. Who'd of thought it?

Trying to time the market is the Russian roulette method of investing.

MFW_ASAP

Jonbvn wrote: »

Buy low and sell high. Who'd of thought it?

Trying to time the market is the Russian roulette method of investing.

Indeed. That nugget of wise information notwithstanding, I've almost doubled my pension in 6 years. :money:

Thrugelmir

MFW_ASAP wrote: »

I just did a quick search and found a post in Feb 2009 I made where I mentioned that my SIPP was about £80k. I had joined a company scheme around that time and so haven't contributed to my SIPP since. This means it has gained £70k in 6 years. That's an investment return of 87.5% over that period, or averaging at 14.58% per year over the last 6 years.

Coupled with my brave decision to buy a dream house at the bottom of the crash in 2010, predicting we would have low rates for years, thus means I'm the investment King of this board and everyone should bow before me!!!!!

You couldn't pick a much lower start date than February 2009.

FTSE is up around 40% since then. That's without reinvestment of income as well. At say 4% compounded over 6 and half years. That's another 26%.

Net result is that you've beaten the index by around 3% a year. Reasonable return. Not one to suggest however that you've become a star day trader.

wotsthat

MFW_ASAP wrote: »

If I didn't make the punt to go into cash (I have done this a few times over the years when I believe that the market is overheating) then I would have made the 9.41% gain you made, rather than the 87% I did make.

I never understand the resaoning behind sticking with shares when you know that the market is overheating (i.e. when the BBC starts going on about how the FTSE100 is over 7000 for the first time and is making record gains).

Your fund manager cannot move a large amount of money to cash, but you can. There is nothing to stop you cashing in your funds when the FTSE100 reaches 7000 and then re-buying those same funds when the FTSE100 reaches 6000. You're simply profit taking at what you think is the peak and then buying back in when at what you think is the trough.

If the FTSE reaches 7000 and the BBC is talking about records, do you think that there is much more to gain? Not me.

If you buy back into the same funds when the market is at 6000 and the market continues to fall to 5500, do you bemoan the fact that you bought in too early? Not me, I'm more focused on the fact I'm still far better off than I would have been if I had done nothing.

Sorry I made 9.41% each year but with significantly less risk.

The problem with selling at market highs is that's it doesn't mean the market is actually overheated. Eventually you'll sell and it won't come back down. Shorting something which usually goes up will usually lose money unless you really do have the knack.

MFW_ASAP

Thrugelmir wrote: »

You couldn't pick a much lower start date than February 2009.

I didn't 'pick' the date, that was just how it transpired...
http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showpost.php?p=18985729&postcount=1

Thrugelmir wrote: »

FTSE is up around 40% since then. That's without reinvestment of income as well. At say 4% compounded over 6 and half years. That's another 26%.

Net result is that you've beaten the index by around 3% a year. Reasonable return. Not one to suggest however that you've become a star day trader.

Well, your 4% seems generous compared with the BBC's 3%:

"On average, shares in the FTSE 100 yield about 3% a year"
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-30589031

However, the main problem you have is that if you state that the FTSE is the index and it has gained 40% over the period that my pension has gained 87%, then I've beaten the index by more than 100%. You can't double count and say the FTSE has gone up 66% including dividends.

Even then, I've still beaten your index by 21%.

That does suggests I'm a star day trader.

MFW_ASAP

Well anyway. Knack or no. I started this thread a year ago and, despite the naysayers (who still don't have the grace to admit I was right and they were wrong), I made a 20% gain where others have remained static or lost money.

It's been a good experience over the last 12 months and that 20% will now have the next 20 years to compound, allowing me to retire early.

It's been emotional. :cool:

The next 12 month episode in my life will be to half all of my outgoings. I'll start a thread soon. Please keep following me and my amazing financial abilities