Mark Carney warns of complacency in financial markets

MFW_ASAP

Graham_Devon wrote: »

No need to milk it. I stated "fair play" and am happy to apologise if you feel you need it.

You've proven me wrong - what more you want?

I'm not bothered about an apology Graham, I know that you're not big enough to do that and you'd pobably choke to death trying to say it.

However, you mentioned that this was the first time I had provided evidence, implying that I have told lies in the past:

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Fair play - first time you've come to the table with hard fast evidence!

I'd like for you to admit that this is because this is the first time I've been called a liar and needed to provide evidence.

Graham_Devon

MFW_ASAP wrote: »

I'm not bothered about an apology Graham, I know that you're not big enough to do that and you'd pobably choke to death trying to say it.

However, you mentioned that this was the first time I had provided evidence. I'd like for you to admit that this is because this is the first time I've been called a liar and needed to provide evidence.

Well I'm not going to admit that. All the furore over your mortgage claims under your previous names? All the arguments which led you to getting banned several times over? (These weren't arguments with me, but well know arguments on here!)

Come on now.

I apologise Renovation Man. I beg you. Please accept my apology and we can put a line under it.

Any ideas on what you are going to invest the 57k in? I might be tempted to follow you

MFW_ASAP

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Well I'm not going to admit that. All the furore over your mortgage claims under your previous names?

What mortgage claims?

MFW_ASAP

chucknorris wrote: »

I didn't really doubt you because you had already previously said that you were moving out of funds into cash. I know from your posting history that your attitude to risk isn't really aligned to holding mainly cash, and that may be too tame and possibly be frustrating to you, so I can easily see that you would be tempted to divert some of that cash into an opportunity in shares, it suits your attitude to risk much more than holding just cash. I too can struggle to be bearish at times, but I try and force myself to de-risk more these days.

Even I don't usually take such a risk and put so much money into a single share, but it seemed such a great opportunity to make a fast buck that I couldn't help myself.

My normal approach is to hold a third in Gilts/Bonds, a third in funds and then have a third for 'day trading' fun. However, I think there is a bubble in bonds and it'll deflate once we see interest rates rise and I think there will be a correction in the stockmarket because people are way outside their normal risk profiles while they hunt for returns (lol, including me right now with my Tesco shares - I'mhoping the crash doesn't happen this week while I'm holding these!!).


It is difficult to be a bear, I must admit.

Generali

MFW_ASAP wrote: »

Bit of a strawman argument. I have never 'despised' the HPC argument, indeed I actually agreed that we were heading for a correction pre-2007/08 and started paying down my mortgage and increasing my savings in anticipation. Once I felt the crash was over and the bottom reached, I bought a new house.

My apologies. Maybe I mistook disdain for despising.

MFW_ASAP wrote: »

As far as the stockmarket is concerned, I monitored my investments over the past 12 month and they have been up and down, but the amount in the pot is about the same today as it was 12 months ago. I can't see what would stimulate, in either the UK or US markets, a 10% to 30% rise while I'm out of the market. QE has ended and we are just waiting for an interest rate rise. The footsie 100 rises to 6800 and then it falls. If I were regularly contributing to my pension, I could gain on these falls by buying cheaper shares, but I'm not doing. My pension just goes up and down and, effectively goes nowhere.

I did the same action prior to the crash in 2007, and was out of the market for about 4 months, I may have missed out on some gains, but these would have been wiped out by the huge fall.

I'll be out of this market perhaps for anything upto a year. If I'm wrong then I might have missed out on an average of 5% gain, if I'm right, then I'll make a much bigger gain.

Well you know for a fact that you'll miss out on dividends in the meantime of ~3%. On top of that you have to do something else with your money: cash rates are low and I wouldn't touch Fixed Income with a bargepole.

I do know that our top investors are paid 7 figures a year and they can't call a top reliably. I'd be very surprised if you can do better reliably.

You do make a very interesting point about dollar averaging though. The best strategy is to drip money into the market to take advantage of the dips. You've denied yourself that opportunity by taking a strategy of paying down very cheap debt first. The strategy seems to be working for you but it would be an interesting exercise to see what the outcome for your net worth would have been if you'd dripped money into something like the Vanguard S&P tracker.

chucknorris

MFW_ASAP wrote: »

Even I don't usually take such a risk and put so much money into a single share, but it seemed such a great opportunity to make a fast buck that I couldn't help myself.

My normal approach is to hold a third in Gilts/Bonds, a third in funds and then have a third for 'day trading' fun. However, I think there is a bubble in bonds and it'll deflate once we see interest rates rise and I think there will be a correction in the stockmarket because people are way outside their normal risk profiles while they hunt for returns (lol, including me right now with my Tesco shares - I'mhoping the crash doesn't happen this week while I'm holding these!!).


It is difficult to be a bear, I must admit.

I looked at Tesco shares myself (despite having an aversion to individual shares), but I managed to avoid getting involved, despite believing that in the long term they represent value (but I can't articulate why, so it is just a hunch, and I'm trying to avoid following hunches).

It is time for me to become a bear, I know this, and I am starting to accept it, I just need to start implementing it now, that will be my last stage of changing.

MFW_ASAP

Generali wrote: »

My apologies. Maybe I mistook disdain for despising.



Well you know for a fact that you'll miss out on dividends in the meantime of ~3%. On top of that you have to do something else with your money: cash rates are low and I wouldn't touch Fixed Income with a bargepole.

I do know that our top investors are paid 7 figures a year and they can't call a top reliably. I'd be very surprised if you can do better reliably.

You do make a very interesting point about dollar averaging though. The best strategy is to drip money into the market to take advantage of the dips. You've denied yourself that opportunity by taking a strategy of paying down very cheap debt first. The strategy seems to be working for you but it would be an interesting exercise to see what the outcome for your net worth would have been if you'd dripped money into something like the Vanguard S&P tracker.

Sorry Gen, I haven't given you the full picture. I don't add to this particular pension account as it is a combination of all my previous company pensions. I actively manage it but don't contribute any monies.

I do have two other pensions, one is a final salary that is closed (which, for obvious reasons I won't be moving into my SIPP) and my company pension that I'm contributing 10% of my salary to (plus employer contribs) that I do still have invested in funds.

The only money I use to overpay my mortgage is what I have free at the end of the month after bills, investments and fun.

I don;t think I'm anywhere close to having the skillset of professional investors, but I do have the flexibility to move into different markets. They are generally stuck within the boundaries of their fund offering. For example, a Japanese fund cant move into India and couldn't hold the majority of invested monies in cash, bonds or property in order to ride out a stockmarket crash, even if they know one is coming.

MFW_ASAP

MFW_ASAP wrote: »

What mortgage claims?

I'm still waiting Graham.....

What have I claimed that wasn't true? Come on, it's time to back up your mud slinging..

tincans6

tincans wrote: »

Perhaps companies are geared more highly than in the past.
I don't know recent figures but generally gearing increased considerably during the 1990's compared to historical levels (even without Tesco style SPV's).

I would class myself as a long term equity person and never trade but I've just got a feeling that the market looks a bit 'crashy' - and not least the USA stock market.

I'm not talking 1987 style meltdown, but I'd hardly be surprised by a rapid 5-10% fall before 2014 is up.

Still 5-10% is trivial in the long run.

even a stopped clock is right twice a day

MFW_ASAP

MFW_ASAP wrote: »

I'm still waiting Graham.....

What have I claimed that wasn't true? Come on, it's time to back up your mud slinging..

Still no response from Graham about my 'Mortgage Claim', whatever they were. Pathetic how some people need to try and throw baseless accusations to score points.