PIP statistics released.

rogerblack

Overall summary - dismal - but improving.
https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/personal-independence-payment-april-2013-to-july-2014

The most striking data is the clearance graph shown on page 13, and the amount of people claiming PIP.

From Nov 13 to May 14, the number of claims cleared (reached a decision on entitlement) bounce around 12-15000 or so.
In june, this rockets up to over 35K, before falling back next month to just under.

This would be great news - apart from the fact that over that same period, new claims are running at around 37K per month.

In June - about 300 more cases were cleared than came in.
(this did not happen again in July).

Currently, a little under a half of people who have claimed PIP have had a decision made on their claim. (490k claims, 200K decisions - 100K favorable)

If, as happened in June, the clearance rate continues at about the same level as new claims, cases are seen in order, and no increase of the rate of DLA reassessment happens, then the existing caseload will be processed in 8 months.

I have not dived into any more detailed statistics than the summary.
It is however problematic that they are lumping in 'withdrawn' claims with actual decisions made.
I note also that DLA reassessments are beginning to become significant - now making up a fifth of incoming PIP claims.

rogerblack

The next set of statistics is now out, covering up to the end of October.
At the end of July, there were around 290K outstanding claims.
Clearance of claims have increased somewhat - from around 34K - barely keeping up with the rate of incoming claims to 58K in the last 3 months before November.

So, they've gotten the queue down by about 72K or so.
Claims outstanding = 210K or so.

If they continue at this rate, they will have cleared claims made today in around 4 months.
The queue will drop to zero in about 10 months.

However - it is likely that the rate of DLA migration will be sped up, meaning that this is not hit.

skintmacflint

Does anyone else think 37000 new claims a month is quite a high number. It's equal to a few medium size towns full of people with disabilities every year.

Are the numbers of new claims increasing? Or does it just seem like a large number when you first read it.

rogerblack

skintmacflint wrote: »

Does anyone else think 37000 new claims a month is quite a high number. It's equal to a few medium size towns full of people with disabilities every year.

Are the numbers of new claims increasing? Or does it just seem like a large number when you first read it.

Claims are more or less stable in level.
Older people are more disabled than younger, the population is on average getting older - you'd expect a rise in PIP claims.

As of 2010, there were 1.4 million on some rate of DLA with indefinite awards aged 16-64. (one in 28)
If this is purely people becoming disabled and claiming for life, out of a working age population of 40 million, you'd expect about 22000 claims a month.
The rest is due largely to 'short term' illnesses. The extension of the qualifying period from 9-12 months from DLA-PIP will reduce this.

The headline figures used to justify DLA-PIP were basically lies.
The implication was that everyone on DLA was scroungers, as you can see this graph going way up.
The problem is the graph was going up because people aged over 65 could not claim DLA, people coming up to 65 are significantly more disabled than younger people, and they claim DLA and then stay on it till death.
So, of course, 20 years after the introduction of DLA, you get a hell of a lot of pensioners who would not qualify at the introduction if they were that old - the number of claims goes way up.
Plus, some young people with lifelong serious illneses are living beyond 12 or so, due to improvements in medical care.

Simon7685

Roger you have a great understanding of all these statistics, much better than mine. I was extremely lucky to get my renewal this year under DLA and finally got an indefinite award, even though my area is now being done under PIP. What would your best guess be as to when I might expect to have to start the PIP move?

I keep reading online that it was supposed to be around Oct 2015 but given the backlog and problems with PIP would you say that is liable to happen, or do you think it will be later?

I know nobody actually knows and it is all just speculative but what would be your take on it? I am in the YO area if that helps.

rogerblack

Simon7685 wrote: »

Roger you have a great understanding of all these statistics, much better than mine. I was extremely lucky to get my renewal this year under DLA and finally got an indefinite award, even though my area is now being done under PIP. What would your best guess be as to when I might expect to have to start the PIP move?

I'm not going to go into individual cases or postcodes.
As of 2011, there were about 1.4 million people on working age DLA.
The number of people on DLA had been rising by some 10000/quarter.
As of Nov 12-Feb 14 - it fell by 20k. A difference of 10K/mo.
This cross-checks with the PIP figures for DLA reassessments - minus some, presumably deaths or people stopping claiming DLA naturally.

Assuming the about 4K/mo people drop off DLA 'naturally' - if they wanted reassessments for PIP to have a queue of 3 months - which is probably about right - going too short will mean that they will need to chase others more, then sometime in summer 2015, they could speed reassessments of DLA up from 7K or so at the moment, to 27K.
Due to natural losses - this would mean 30K/mo coming off DLA.

This would mean that the DLA working-age caseload of 1400K gets migrated over in only 46 months, or summer 2019.
Sometime in perhaps 2017, or 2018, I would expect the media to be fed stories depicting older than 65 people claiming DLA as 'not having been recently reassessed' and 'claiming DLA even if they are living it up', and ...
This will lead to the introduction of legislation moving post-65 claimants onto PIP, and perhaps a means test.

This is of course if universal credit isn't expanded into PIP/DLA - on the grounds of 'simplification' - it being ridiculous to have two different welfare disability benefits.

skintmacflint

rogerblack wrote: »

Claims are more or less stable in level.
Older people are more disabled than younger, the population is on average getting older - you'd expect a rise in PIP claims.

As of 2010, there were 1.4 million on some rate of DLA with indefinite awards aged 16-64. (one in 28)
If this is purely people becoming disabled and claiming for life, out of a working age population of 40 million, you'd expect about 22000 claims a month.
The rest is due largely to 'short term' illnesses. The extension of the qualifying period from 9-12 months from DLA-PIP will reduce this.

The headline figures used to justify DLA-PIP were basically lies.
The implication was that everyone on DLA was scroungers, as you can see this graph going way up.
The problem is the graph was going up because people aged over 65 could not claim DLA, people coming up to 65 are significantly more disabled than younger people, and they claim DLA and then stay on it till death.
So, of course, 20 years after the introduction of DLA, you get a hell of a lot of pensioners who would not qualify at the introduction if they were that old - the number of claims goes way up.
Plus, some young people with lifelong serious illneses are living beyond 12 or so, due to improvements in medical care.

Thanks for the explanation as I hadn't read any headlines or articles on it, and just thought it seemed to be a fair size number. But I appreciate that figures can be misleading in many ways , which was why I asked.

racon

rogerblack wrote: »

Claims are more or less stable in level.
Older people are more disabled than younger, the population is on average getting older - you'd expect a rise in PIP claims.

As of 2010, there were 1.4 million on some rate of DLA with indefinite awards aged 16-64. (one in 28)
If this is purely people becoming disabled and claiming for life, out of a working age population of 40 million, you'd expect about 22000 claims a month.
The rest is due largely to 'short term' illnesses. The extension of the qualifying period from 9-12 months from DLA-PIP will reduce this.

The headline figures used to justify DLA-PIP were basically lies.
The implication was that everyone on DLA was scroungers, as you can see this graph going way up.
The problem is the graph was going up because people aged over 65 could not claim DLA, people coming up to 65 are significantly more disabled than younger people, and they claim DLA and then stay on it till death.
So, of course, 20 years after the introduction of DLA, you get a hell of a lot of pensioners who would not qualify at the introduction if they were that old - the number of claims goes way up.
Plus, some young people with lifelong serious illneses are living beyond 12 or so, due to improvements in medical care.

Hey Roger. I just noticed your post. Not all pensioners are on DLA for life. Those like me that became 65 shortly after PIP came out find themselves off DLA and can't claim PIP because they are too old. They can claim Attendance like I am now, but that doesn't help when you need a car.

nannytone_2

then you werent a pensioner when PIP was introduced were you?
all people that receive DLA that were of pension age when PIP was introduced will NEVER have to transfer to PIP even if they are reassessed

racon

nannytone wrote: »

then you werent a pensioner when PIP was introduced were you?
all people that receive DLA that were of pension age when PIP was introduced will NEVER have to transfer to PIP even if they are reassessed

Hey. No I was 65 when I applied for PIP (conversion from DLA). My DLA award was indefinite, and I thought it best to get on with the move over. I wouldn't say never. Once the 16 - 65 range have been sorted, I can see no reason for having two benefits for the same thing running side by side.

nannytone_2

the age you were when you asked to be transferred to PIP is irrelevant.
the only age they are concerned with is the age you were on the day that PIP was introduced, and that was 64 ... not pension age