Economists Urge Scotland to Vote No......

Shakethedisease

Thrugelmir wrote: »

In 2015 I suspect other events are going to push the Scottish issue totally off the front pages. Made a good diversion in 2014. More pressing matters will back on the table.

Yes, like actually forming a government in the first place. That might be a very good place to start...

A Tory-Labour unity coalition may be the only way forward after 7 May

The two parties have more in common with each other than with the insurgents. A national government would prevent a constitutional crisis..

...I have heard one Downing Street insider punt the concept of a Tory-Lib Dem-Green coalition, a senior Tory suggest a Conservative-SNP deal based on faster devolution, and a Labour figure float a Labour-Lib Dem-SNP-Plaid Cymru agreement reliant on big tax rises and slower spending cuts. Any of these fragile groupings could be held hostage by single-minded militants or single-issue obsessives capable of collapsing the government.

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/jan/02/tory-labour-unity-7-may-national-government-constitutional-crisis

I suspect that you are correct about the 'Scottish question', but not about SNP MP's and the consequences of Labour's seeming demise north of the border. And certainly not when you've got articles like the above appearing in the Guardian, written by a Tory speech writer. They're all running about like headless chickens at the thought.

But yes, pressing issues, I'd say forming a government might be the most pressing of all first. Consequently, you may want to prepare yourself for another anti-SNP ( many headlines, column inches, tv ) onslaught in the press until May 2015 at least. Salmonds face might be about a lot again too. Sorry.

padington

Scotlands on a good promise sticking with Blighty. The oil price is sinking and by the time it's back up, the dynamics will have changed. The whiskey empire will eventually get replicated in China ( notice how much we drink prosecco these days and not champagne) and the tech industry has grown deep roots in the south east and the big trend geographically is towards mega cities becoming the cash crop. You need at least one to be in the game.

Lastly as someone elquently put it before, trust is the best commodity we have and boy Scotland could lose it fast if it doesn't watch it.

Now is the perfect time to link arms stronger and hatch more cunning plans together, not run away.

Generali

Shakethedisease wrote: »

Why are they increasingly voting SNP then ? Why isn't Labour streaking ahead in the polls following the referendum ?

I have no idea. I can say with certainty that most Scottish people either don't care about or don't want independence. They voted for what they wanted or abstained.

I suspect that people in Scotland are telling pollsters they will vote SNP as they feel that the SNP will be better managers of Scotland than other potential managers. What do I know though? It's not like I live in Scotland although I do seem to have a knack for being right.

Shakethedisease wrote: »

No-one is being 'forced' into voting for anyone or anything. So if there are any witterings to be had, they are most probably yours. Which are still stuck in Sept 2014 incidentally. Politically at the moment, given the polls, and IF they play out.. then the SNP are in a win/win situation all round. Even if no-one does a deal with them in 2015.

Erm? I've been posting about the next UK election. You seem to be of a mind that there is some kind of blank canvas, that the last 12 months didn't exist.

Now I had a lousy 2014 which I would rather forget but a highlight was the Scottish people making the very sensible decision to remain part of the UK. Thankfully, all sides decided (AIUI at least) that there wouldn't be another expensive and divisive vote on Scottish independence for another generation. The failure by the SNP to gain independence under the best conditions they are ever likely to experience means I understand that you'd like to pretend that the last year didn't exist. It did however and a series of Neverendums won't happen or at least shouldn't.

Shakethedisease wrote: »

Because If Labour don't deal.. The backlash will be such amongst the last remaining Labour stalwarts in Scotland..that they they will be ripping up their membership cards in droves in disgust. Especially if their refusal to do a deal leads to a feeble unworkable minority government which leads to another General election ( and the potential for the Tories to regain power ). Consequently the SNP will reap the rewards and sweep into Holyrood the following year with much increased support. They already have a majority.

And if Labour stitch up the English then they are destroying 90% of their potential voter base. Even in the darkest days of the 1980s they still had over 2/3rds of their seats outside Scotland. I don't know if you noticed but the English are quite keen on the UK staying intact. The party that destroys the UK may well be destroyed in England.

Shakethedisease wrote: »

If the Tories get in. Well, it goes without saying that SNP will increase support once again in Scotland. Labour across the UK will be in meltdown for a while, electing a new leader and starting again.

Why? Surely a Scotland that wants to avoid a Tory Government above all else would want to vote Labour not SNP.

Shakethedisease wrote: »

Tory/Labour coalition again, would increase SNP support, with the same Labour stalwarts, and probably a lot of Tories too, this time across the UK, ripping up their membership cards in disgust.

Maybe. Alternatively Scottish people may realise that sending an SNP representative to Westminster is a wasted vote.

Shakethedisease wrote: »

Where exactly do you see the SNP losing with these current likely scenarios ? Like I said earlier, only a Labour majority would stem the flow. And even then, implementing and continuing with cuts and austerity measures would see them in Scotland dive even further down in polling, with the SNP reaping the rewards.

You need to understand that the UK doesn't stop at the Tweed. There is an awful lot of UK south of there and, more importantly, a lot of voters south of the Tweed. Unless the SNP can stand for English constituencies they will never win a majority. The SNP will always be playing a weak hand in London because they simply don't have support in almost all of the country.

zagubov

Crikey! Judging by the whining of some posters here you'd think the NO campaign hadn't won. They did. Judging by all the finger-wagging and sour-faced tut-tutting and haughty lecturing about the oil price, you'd wonder how they turned into such a bunch of sore winners.

The YES campaigners have put on their best smiles and taken the result as a wake-up call to get more democratically involved in party politics. The media have diversified to meet their needs, a bit. So they get a bit of a consolation prize of more popular representation. What's not to like?

CLAPTON

One wonders when political debate in Scotland will grow up and start discussing issues like the poor state of the Scottish health service rather then the English one.

Shakethedisease

Generali wrote: »

I have no idea. I can say with certainty that most Scottish people either don't care about or don't want independence. They voted for what they wanted or abstained.

I suspect that people in Scotland are telling pollsters they will vote SNP as they feel that the SNP will be better managers of Scotland than other potential managers. What do I know though? It's not like I live in Scotland although I do seem to have a knack for being right.

Erm? I've been posting about the next UK election. You seem to be of a mind that there is some kind of blank canvas, that the last 12 months didn't exist.

Now I had a lousy 2014 which I would rather forget but a highlight was the Scottish people making the very sensible decision to remain part of the UK. Thankfully, all sides decided (AIUI at least) that there wouldn't be another expensive and divisive vote on Scottish independence for another generation. The failure by the SNP to gain independence under the best conditions they are ever likely to experience means I understand that you'd like to pretend that the last year didn't exist. It did however and a series of Neverendums won't happen or at least shouldn't.

And if Labour stitch up the English then they are destroying 90% of their potential voter base. Even in the darkest days of the 1980s they still had over 2/3rds of their seats outside Scotland. I don't know if you noticed but the English are quite keen on the UK staying intact. The party that destroys the UK may well be destroyed in England.

Why? Surely a Scotland that wants to avoid a Tory Government above all else would want to vote Labour not SNP.

Maybe. Alternatively Scottish people may realise that sending an SNP representative to Westminster is a wasted vote.

You need to understand that the UK doesn't stop at the Tweed. There is an awful lot of UK south of there and, more importantly, a lot of voters south of the Tweed. Unless the SNP can stand for English constituencies they will never win a majority. The SNP will always be playing a weak hand in London because they simply don't have support in almost all of the country.

No, you've been posting about oil prices, tax rises and endless other stuff, that needs only be considered if independence or Devo-max were imminently on the horizon. Neither is.. yet.. But I don't see how talking up 'how the SNP will cope with...*insert fantasy scenario of tax rises/falling oil prices* is relevant in the next 5 months ? Do feel free to enlighten me however. But I do actually read your posts before replying.

Except the actual result of the referendum where less than 40% of Scottish adults (and children aged 16-18) voted in favour. When the oil price was at an all time high, with a weak Government in London and at the end of the worst recession for 80 years.

^^^^^^ example

a skilled account, engineer or IT professional would be welcomed with open arms in most countries across the world and remunerated in a manner appropriate to their skills. Working in a country where the top rate of tax was significantly higher than the rest of the UK may be very unattractive.

^^^^^example

The above aren't talking about the next election. They are discussing the outcome of the referendum. Fantasy tax rises and oil prices in an independent Scotland with the SNP in power. It didn't happen.

Labour won't go into government with the SNP, even on a confidence and supply basis. Well, that's my own take on it anyway, and lots of others as far as I can tell from an SNP perspective. So don't worry about that. No-one is pinning any hopes on it. Oh and Scotland is starting to view a Labour government with just as much distain as a Tory one. Slowly, but it's getting there. SNP are offering, because of the 'Vote SNP, get Tory' usual narrative up here every general election.

But if they don't ( do deals), and the arithmetic doesn't stack up for a majority with any other party, for Labour or Tories. Then that does beg the question on 'what happens next'.. It's not so much what 'England'.. who incidentally are only 1 of 4 nations in the UK parliament ( had you forgotten ? ).. wants or doesn't want as per your post. But what it will take in order to get a fully functioning government up and running ?

What do you think ? After all, the markets are going to get pretty antsy about that aren't they ? And there's an awful lot of kite flying at the moment about a joint Tory/Labour coalition.

The battle to keep our Union together has only just begun

Alex Salmond appears to have shrugged off the No vote, but his victory is not inevitable

At the start of 2014, I began this column with the words: “This year, the United Kingdom could be voted out of existence.” Repetition is not usually a good idea in my trade but, in my first column of 2015, I am tempted to use exactly the same sentence...
...So what should happen now? Lord Salisbury, the former leader of the House of Lords, is the fullest exponent of wholesale change. The unitary state, he says, is lost. A crisis is coming. Why don’t we create a federal state, constructed by those who really do believe in the United Kingdom, and wrest the initiative from those who want to break it up?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scotland/11322309/The-battle-to-keep-our-Union-together-has-only-just-begun.html

The Guardian, the Telegraph and the FT... Hmmm.. Because Labour lining up with the Tories, just went down so well up here didn't it, in terms of boosting support. Labour is in a terrible position. The SNP should book holidays after the May election and sit back and watch it all unfold. They've laid most of their cards on the table already anyway.

ps there's been talk of SNP candidates standing in Berwick. JFYI. We know the UK doesn't stop at the Tweed.

SNP MSP Christine Grahame has explained why she would consider standing for the party over the border in Berwick-Upon-Tweed at the next general election. She said she believed the area had "much in common" with her Scottish Parliament constituency of Midlothian South, Tweeddale and Lauderdale.
Ms Grahame added it would be up to her party's national executive to decide whether to take the idea forward.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-south-scotland-30217248

Shakethedisease

padington wrote: »

Scotlands on a good promise sticking with Blighty. The oil price is sinking and by the time it's back up, the dynamics will have changed. The whiskey empire will eventually get replicated in China ( notice how much we drink prosecco these days and not champagne) and the tech industry has grown deep roots in the south east and the big trend geographically is towards mega cities becoming the cash crop. You need at least one to be in the game.

Lastly as someone elquently put it before, trust is the best commodity we have and boy Scotland could lose it fast if it doesn't watch it.

Now is the perfect time to link arms stronger and hatch more cunning plans together, not run away.

You might want to run that past Cameron with EVEL and the backbenchers threatening to block any Smith Commission recommendations going forward if it doesn't happen. And then after that. Why not run your post past Scots MP's who don't want English MP's voting to renew the Trident base a few miles away from Glasgow, even if every single one of them vote against it.. as it's a reserved matter.. Better together yeah ?

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Shakethedisease wrote: »

Why not run your post past Scots MP's who don't want English MP's voting to renew the Trident base a few miles away from Glasgow, even if every single one of them vote against it.. as it's a reserved matter.

The security of our country should be a reserved matter.

Trident is vital to national security and provides a significant boost to the Scottish economy.

padington

Shakethedisease wrote: »

You might want to run that past Cameron with EVEL and the backbenchers threatening to block any Smith Commission recommendations going forward if it doesn't happen. And then after that. Why not run your post past Scots MP's who don't want English MP's voting to renew the Trident base a few miles away from Glasgow, even if every single one of them vote against it.. as it's a reserved matter.. Better together yeah ?

Yes of course it would be better together. We've had peace for how long ? We've offered each others peoples unfettered access across the whole land and into each others institutions for how long ? We've remained wealthy and generous to our poor and sick for how long ? We've shared our learnings and brought mankind further and faster whilst cooperating together for how long ?

Of course it goes without saying, anyone trying to scupper that is a fool and yes, right now that jester hat may fit on many heads, no reason to let it sit on yours though.

We've got an international corporate world playing every country off against each other. Capital flows out of country's borders like water through a Siv. We just need to give capital one good reason to go elsewhere and whoosh, it's off.

It's time to spend energies on academic, entrepreneurial and technological ingenuity now, not spend time slicing up a cake to the point it can never be sold.

Your generation said no, the next might say yes but until then, lets enjoy the ride together.

.string.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

The security of our country should be a reserved matter.

Trident is vital to national security and provides a significant boost to the Scottish economy.

I don't think you'll get any change from Shakey for that except for agreement about someone else paying for defence as long as the SNP can cherry-pick according to what they define as the Sovereign Will of the .. etc. etc. Oh - and the argument about how would you like it in your back yard (copiously refuted some time ago).