Economists Urge Scotland to Vote No......

purch

.string. wrote: »

I sense a Brain Drain to South of the Border if the political uncertainty in Scotland continues to be fostered by the current SNP Scottish Government; maybe next summer?

Judging by the quality of the arguments on this thread, it won't be a significant drain

Generali

Shakethedisease wrote: »

It doesn't matter anymore Generali. People have been weighing these things in their heads/hearts for the last 2 or 3 years in Scotland. 45% still went for it. And 60+% would vote for full Devo Max in a second given the chance.

It's something I suspect the SNP are going to try to make sure those people are given the chance to do. And very soon too. It's only a very short hop from there to full independence.

Do you see any down side in any possible scenario for the SNP? Everything is a win for them if we believe your witterings. Except the actual result of the referendum where less than 40% of Scottish adults (and children aged 16-18) voted in favour. When the oil price was at an all time high, with a weak Government in London and at the end of the worst recession for 80 years.

The Scots don't want independence. They didn't want it via a referendum and they don't want it forced on them via Devo Max.

ruggedtoast

Generali wrote: »

Do you see any down side in any possible scenario for the SNP? Everything is a win for them if we believe your witterings. Except the actual result of the referendum where less than 40% of Scottish adults (and children aged 16-18) voted in favour. When the oil price was at an all time high, with a weak Government in London and at the end of the worst recession for 80 years.

The Scots don't want independence. They didn't want it via a referendum and they don't want it forced on them via Devo Max.

They do want the SNP though. Which presents a problem for Sturgeon. Having platformed themselves on being all things tartan to all people Scottish, she now has a spectrum of supporters ranging from the centre right (who would instinctively be Tory voters in another universe) down to swivel eyed leftists and career doleites.

It reminds me of the Lib Dems, a merger party which still can't reconcile its two fringes. However unlike the Lib Dem supporters, the SNP voters think their party is in power and they fully expect it to deliver exponential economic growth, a sovereign oil fund, and giant state handouts to the idle.

If I were in 'Westminster' right now, sitting on the back of the Nationalists humiliating referendum defeat and loss of the most able leader they have ever had, far from worrying, I would be thinking all I need to do is sit back and watch this lot collapse.

Of course they will blame absolutely everything on 'Westminster' but they will be hopelessly tied in knots by their 'vow'. Everything that goes wrong will be either because Westminster hasn't given them enough devolution on Monday, then because they have too much on Thursday.

The SNP has enough rope to throttle itself now. I hope it does a good job.

.string.

Yes Ruggedtoast, that last para just about sums it up. The SNP will find it difficult to escape blame for any and all down-turns in Scotland's fortunes. That would certainly be the approach I would follow, giving Scotland sufficient funds to do just that. Let the buck stop with the Scottish Parliament when their overspending on their pet bribe-the-electorate projects damage their budget.

We can certainly expect all sorts of drivel from them designed to stoke up their electorate. However the remainder of funds derived from taxes and utilised by Westminster, if managed correctly, should cover those things that subsidise Scotland by virtue of them being part of the Union and the loss of which would involve an Independent Scotland in massive costs to duplicate.

The Barnet formula? I'd take that subsidy out of taxes collected in Scotland, for example related to Defence contracts.

Tromking

ruggedtoast wrote: »

They do want the SNP though. Which presents a problem for Sturgeon. Having platformed themselves on being all things tartan to all people Scottish, she now has a spectrum of supporters ranging from the centre right (who would instinctively be Tory voters in another universe) down to swivel eyed leftists and career doleites.

Excellent analysis.
The fact that traditional SNP areas outside the central belt didn't vote Yes in enough numbers to carry the day in the independence vote is telling.
It wouldn't surprise me in the least if in time the growth in SNP support in urban areas amongst disaffected Labour voters was met with a commensurate cooling off of support from the Tartan Tories in the rural SNP heartlands.

Shakethedisease

Generali wrote: »

Do you see any down side in any possible scenario for the SNP? Everything is a win for them if we believe your witterings. Except the actual result of the referendum where less than 40% of Scottish adults (and children aged 16-18) voted in favour. When the oil price was at an all time high, with a weak Government in London and at the end of the worst recession for 80 years.

The Scots don't want independence. They didn't want it via a referendum and they don't want it forced on them via Devo Max.

Why are they increasingly voting SNP then ? Why isn't Labour streaking ahead in the polls following the referendum ?

No-one is being 'forced' into voting for anyone or anything. So if there are any witterings to be had, they are most probably yours. Which are still stuck in Sept 2014 incidentally. Politically at the moment, given the polls, and IF they play out.. then the SNP are in a win/win situation all round. Even if no-one does a deal with them in 2015.

Because If Labour don't deal.. The backlash will be such amongst the last remaining Labour stalwarts in Scotland..that they they will be ripping up their membership cards in droves in disgust. Especially if their refusal to do a deal leads to a feeble unworkable minority government which leads to another General election ( and the potential for the Tories to regain power ). Consequently the SNP will reap the rewards and sweep into Holyrood the following year with much increased support. They already have a majority.

If the Tories get in. Well, it goes without saying that SNP will increase support once again in Scotland. Labour across the UK will be in meltdown for a while, electing a new leader and starting again.

Tory/Labour coalition again, would increase SNP support, with the same Labour stalwarts, and probably a lot of Tories too, this time across the UK, ripping up their membership cards in disgust.

Where exactly do you see the SNP losing with these current likely scenarios ? Like I said earlier, only a Labour majority would stem the flow. And even then, implementing and continuing with cuts and austerity measures would see them in Scotland dive even further down in polling, with the SNP reaping the rewards.

As it stands, the only downside for the SNP at the moment or in the next few would actually BE winning Devo-Max or independence. Because then the politics and economics would be entirely different to how things are now UK wide, and focused much more inwards.

But since you don't think either scenario is ever likely.. and it could of course be argued that for the SNP winning Devo-Max or independence would never be a 'downside'... then I'm guessing that it isn't something they are particularly worried about at the present time. For the next two elections though, they are playing from a position of strength they probably never dreamed possible. And are playing it very well too if theincreasing number of hysterical Telegraph articles are anything to go by.:)

Shakethedisease

ruggedtoast wrote: »

They do want the SNP though. Which presents a problem for Sturgeon. Having platformed themselves on being all things tartan to all people Scottish, she now has a spectrum of supporters ranging from the centre right (who would instinctively be Tory voters in another universe) down to swivel eyed leftists and career doleites.
.

Cameron, Milliband, Clegg and Farage would kill for 'Sturgeon's problems' at the moment. I think you are forgetting that the SNP has been in power for 7 years already in Scotland. And look like continuing on for another good few years yet. I'd say Sturgeon, knows well enough who her supporters are, and how to win more over from all walks of Scottish life by now.

Shakethedisease

Tromking wrote: »

Excellent analysis.
The fact that traditional SNP areas outside the central belt didn't vote Yes in enough numbers to carry the day in the independence vote is telling.
It wouldn't surprise me in the least if in time the growth in SNP support in urban areas amongst disaffected Labour voters was met with a commensurate cooling off of support from the Tartan Tories in the rural SNP heartlands.

Dear me, first sectarianism, now 'Tartan Tories'.. have you been time-warped back to 1979 ?

Thrugelmir

Shakethedisease wrote: »

Cameron, Milliband, Clegg and Farage would kill for 'Sturgeon's problems' at the moment. I think you are forgetting that the SNP has been in power for 7 years already in Scotland. And look like continuing on for another good few years yet.

In 2015 I suspect other events are going to push the Scottish issue totally off the front pages. Made a good diversion in 2014. More pressing matters will back on the table.

Tromking

Shakethedisease wrote: »

Dear me, first sectarianism, now 'Tartan Tories'.. have you been time-warped back to 1979 ?

Perhaps, but a rainbow alliance of Scottish society that fails to deliver the core objective of independence wont last. The moment Scotland retreats from UK mainstream politics and fails to back that up with voting for independence, who cares what Scotland wants!