London Has Peaked

Libber

https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/379062/HPIReport20141126.pdf

New Land Registry figures are out - London up 0.7% month on month. Funny old crash, this.

Bubble_and_Squeak

Libber wrote: »

https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/379062/HPIReport20141126.pdf

New Land Registry figures are out - London up 0.7% month on month. Funny old crash, this.

YAY!
no need for more props next week!

ukcarper

Carl31 wrote: »

You are right, but most people just see the fact that each month they pay some capital + some interest, where as rent doesn't 'buy' you anything. Its a very limited view shared by the UK population

The whole situation isn't as black and white as that, as you point out, the fact is most people who buy a house effectively pay double the original price settled on over the time of a mortgage, then add all the other costs

If you pay cash of course, its a different story

The usual arguement is 'but when you retire, you will have no housing costs if you buy', which is fast becoming a thing of the past with prices where they are. Being a renter at retirement age will be far easier than having to still pay a mortgage

Considering the total rent over the term of mortgage is more likely to be higher than mortgage payments and most people have paid off their mortgage by the time you retired I don't think you are right.


If you do not intend to stay long then renting will be better but the break even time depends on many things.

padington

Haringey up 1.8% in one month. Waltham forest 1.9%. Lewisham 1.3%.

Cheap is the new prime.

As I predicted, up until Christmas. Sideways until the election. Up again after. With a new division of cheap / expensive houses skewing the average results, advantaging those on the wrong side of the tracks.

lisyloo

but the break even time depends on many things

Great, totally agree.
There's a break even point for every set of circs.

I wish we could get away from the "renting is dead money" mantra.
There is plenty of "dead money" in buying - for example stamp duty. If you have to pay 40% income tax and 2%(?) NI to get your income first then that is "dead money" too.

Long term there is no mathematical argument at all.
Unfortunately we've experienced not finding work within commutable distance of home, so not everyone's life is as straightforward as just staying in one place forever.

lisyloo

Haringey up 1.8% in one month. Waltham forest 1.9%. Lewisham 1.3%

Does anyone think this level of rises is sustainable?
I don't although that doesn't necessarily mean a crash.
I'm expecting a "permanently high plateau" and doesn't look like we're there yet.

These are places where relatively ordinary folk live right?

ukcarper

lisyloo wrote: »

Great, totally agree.
There's a break even point for every set of circs.

I wish we could get away from the "renting is dead money" mantra.
There is plenty of "dead money" in buying - for example stamp duty. If you have to pay 40% income tax and 2%(?) NI to get your income first then that is "dead money" too.

Long term there is no mathematical argument at all.
Unfortunately we've experienced not finding work within commutable distance of home, so not everyone's life is as straightforward as just staying in one place forever.

It's almost impossible to work out accurately and it all depends on your personal circumstances, the property, how rents increase, what happens to mortgage rate plus many others. The only thing you can do is work it out using your own personal circumstances and then that is not that accurate because there are to many unknowns.

ukcarper

lisyloo wrote: »

Does anyone think this level of rises is sustainable?
I don't although that doesn't necessarily mean a crash.
I'm expecting a "permanently high plateau" and doesn't look like we're there yet.

These are places where relatively ordinary folk live right?

I'd agree but who knows.

The problem with London is that areas where ordinary folks live keep becoming gentrified areas which were pretty rough 30 years ago are know considers very nice.

Libber

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

YAY!
no need for more props next week!

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

i'm calling April as the peak of the london property price bubble.

i predict a sharp correction henceforth...

Do you now accept that your predictions in the OP were completely off base or do we have to wait until 2015 for you to back down?

Libber

ukcarper wrote: »

I'd agree but who knows.

The problem with London is that areas where ordinary folks live keep becoming gentrified areas which were pretty rough 30 years ago are know considers very nice.

How on earth is it a bad thing for formerly rough areas to become nice?