London Has Peaked

AndyGuil

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/october-2014-market-trend-data
London +0.7%

AndyGuil

Libber wrote: »

How on earth is it a bad thing for formerly rough areas to become nice?

Only if you were trying to buy before the gentrification. If you were in an area that was about about to be or going through gentrification getting a stake in the ground would be wise.

ukcarper

Libber wrote: »

How on earth is it a bad thing for formerly rough areas to become nice?

In it's self it's not a bad thing but it does reduce the amount of cheaper properties.

padington

lisyloo wrote: »

Does anyone think this level of rises is sustainable?
I don't although that doesn't necessarily mean a crash.
I'm expecting a "permanently high plateau" and doesn't look like we're there yet.

These are places where relatively ordinary folk live right?

Look at it another way. In the increasingly most sought after city in the world there are still places where you can get four houses a few bus stops down from where you can get one for the same price. How long do you think that dynamic will hold especially given the threat of the mansion tax ?

When I got my place, my uncles house was worth six times mine was worth and I can cycle to his house in ten minutes. What we are witnessing is the last sale of cheap london property in a decent commute of central London.

There will be ups and down like in all markets and people need to time their jump wisely but given the levels of immigration, increasing job opportunities, increasingly low air fares and the fact that a house can shield many people from the cold, it's a one way street if you ask me.

Get 'generation x' by Douglas coupland and skip to the generational statistics at the back, that explains everything.

Bubble_and_Squeak

wasn't last months london figure -0.7%?

lisyloo

It's almost impossible to work out accurately

Yes agreed. No-one can accurately predict the future.
You can easily try various scenarios in a spreadsheet though, so it can give you a ballpark for a sensible range of assumptions.
I've found this enormously helpful even though I know there are risks whatever we do.

and it all depends on your personal circumstances

You can put your personal circs e.g. tax rates into your own spreadsheet.
So yes it does vary, but you can cater mathematically for your own circs (as I have done).

and then that is not that accurate because there are to many unknowns

Yes it's not accurate, but it has given me a ball park feel for where that cut off point is. I've found it very useful to do that.

What else would you suggest - tea leaves? wisdom from the forum? :-)
I can't see what else you can do other that consider all the risks and information and come to an informed decision that take account of all factors and your personal circs.

AndyGuil

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

wasn't last months london figure -0.7%?

Very typical this time of year as it corresponds with June summer lull of peaking supply with lowest demand. Normally September or October figures show a fall. This months increase confirms the normal cycle in the market.

lisyloo

What we are witnessing is the last sale of cheap london property in a decent commute of central London.

You might be correct.
That doesn't mean it's the best solution for us.
My best efforts at the calcs (and I did it with a totally open mind) tell me I'll be wealthier off not buying.
Yes I know it's not accurate and I know there are risks because there are unknowable factors.
If you know a better method to make an assesement then please suggest it.

There seems to be disagreement here about past factual information, so I'm not holding out a great deal of hope for future unknowables :-)

Bubble_and_Squeak

AndyGuil wrote: »

Very typical this time of year as it corresponds with June summer lull of peaking supply with lowest demand. Normally September or October figures show a fall. This months increase confirms the normal cycle in the market.

GOOD!
make sure ozzy gets the message
house prices are going up and up and its completely sustainable
no need for help to buy trois or tinkering with stamp duty next week

ukcarper

lisyloo wrote: »

Yes agreed. No-one can accurately predict the future.
You can easily try various scenarios in a spreadsheet though, so it can give you a ballpark for a sensible range of assumptions.
I've found this enormously helpful even though I know there are risks whatever we do.

You can put your personal circs e.g. tax rates into your own spreadsheet.
So yes it does vary, but you can cater mathematically for your own circs (as I have done).

Yes it's not accurate, but it has given me a ball park feel for where that cut off point is. I've found it very useful to do that.

What else would you suggest - tea leaves? wisdom from the forum? :-)
I can't see what else you can do other that consider all the risks and information and come to an informed decision that take account of all factors and your personal circs.

No all you can do is put various scenarios onto a spreadsheet then it's a personal judgement.